August 5, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 1-3c,
🛢️crude oil is down 75-76c,
💲US Dollar is up 16-17 points.
-Weekly crop progress showed corn ratings staying unchanged at 73% rated good/excellent and soybeans saw a 1% decline but still rated 69% good/excellent.
-Weekly export inspections showed soybeans and wheat both at the upper end or above the market expectations while corn had a solid number coming right in line with expectations.
-Weather models are a mixed bag. There is 1 model suggesting the heat dome could set back up across the U.S., but the other models suggest seasonal temps and slightly below normal precipitation.
-The extended weather maps through the end of August are calling for slightly direr than normal with seasonal temperatures.
-One week from today the USDA will release their August Crop Production report. The recent price action in both corn and soybeans suggests to me that priced in a 183-184 bushel per acre corn and a 53 bushel per acre soybean yield.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.60 1/2 which is the low from August 30, 2024. Resistance is at $3.97 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.07 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.16 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $9.66 1/4 which is the low from August 4th. Resistance is at $9.94 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.71 1/4 which is the low from April 9th. Resistance is at $10.26 1/4 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.24 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures gapped lower on the overnight session after trading and closing at a new contract low. Weely export inspections give the corn market a little support yesterday but with the U.S. weather looking nearly ideal to finish off this year crop, traders are pricing in a big U.S. corn yield. The trend is still down for corn as December corn futures look to test the $4.00 level. The big question is will December corn futures find support at $4.00 or follow the September contract and head down to $3.85 area?
Soybean crop ratings saw a 1% decline this past week. 69% of the crop is still rated good/excellent and the August weather to start out the month looks very good for crop development. We have seen a slight uptick in demand for old crop soybeans out of the U.S., but our new crop book of export business is well below where it should be for this time of year. I feel even if we would strike a deal with China, China has bought a lot of soybeans from South America that it won’t have a major impact on this upcoming marketing year for soybeans but rather a couple years down the road.
Wheat futures continue to follow corn and soybeans. We saw some new contract lows scored in all 3 wheat complexes yesterday. Recent demand has been good for U.S. wheat and futures are not seeing a big selloff and being more drug down by corn and soybeans. Spring wheat harvest will get underway the next 2 weeks in North Dakota.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 11, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
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