August 4, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 2-4c,
🛢️crude oil is down 80-81c,
💲US Dollar is down 34-35 points.
-Cooler temps across the U.S this past weekend with not much precipitation. 1 One weather model is suggesting some heat developing by August 15th but that seems to be overdone. Weather looks to be near normal temps with slightly below normal precipitation.
-Funds have started to build a short position in soybeans, selling 25,000+ contracts last week and are now short 36,000+ contracts of soybeans. Funds are holding a net short position of 181,000+ contracts short.
-Funds are carrying a record short position in soybean meal at 133,000+ contracts short.
-The U.S. Dollar trade over 100 last Friday but currently below 99 here this morning.
-Traders are waiting to see which countries will place reciprocal tariffs on the U.S.
🐂🐻Look for a quiet, lower trade to start the week.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.87 3/4 which is the low from July 29th. Resistance is at $3.98 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.07 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.17 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.60 3/4 which is the low from August 1st. Resistance is at $10.01 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.71 1/4 which is the low from April 9th. Resistance is at $10.26 1/2 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.25 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures continue to trend lower. Weekly crop ratings should see very little if any changes this week as weather has been near perfect for most of the U.S. I have mentioned it before, but it feels like the trade has a national yield of 183-184 bushels per acre priced in and that might be on the low side too. President Trump has announced several trade deals with other countries but details regarding Agriculture products has been quiet.
The first full week of August is underway, and the weather looks good for soybean development. There is one weather model suggesting a heat dome setting up next week but that seems to be a bot over done at this point. Temperatures look to be seasonal, but we will be a bit on the dry side across the U.S. but for most of us with saturated soils, that is what we need. Look for soybeans to struggle to hold any rallies this week.
World wheat demand seems to be picking up and bit and the U.S. has seen a nice uptick in business lately. However, the U.S. Dollar pushing back above 100 last week will force us to be uncompetitive. Spring wheat harvest should pick up steam across South Dakota here this week and so far, the crop looks to be pretty good, and the quality is good too with higher protein.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 4, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 11, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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