August 1, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 0-1c,
🍞wheat is down 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is down 24-25c,
💲US Dollar is up 16-17 points.
-The August 1st Trade Deal deadline is here. Countries without a trade deal with the U.S. saw their reciprocal tariffs increase at midnight.
-Weekly export sales saw a strong week across all 3 grains. New crop soybean sales, however, are at their lowest level since 2005.
-President Trump did extend the tariff deal with Mexico by 90-days.
-South Korea has been busy booking new crop corn out of the U.S. They have purchased the most corn since 2015.
-President Trump is expected to extend the tariff deal with China. Deadline for the U.S. and China tariff deal is August 12th.
-Weather looks good for the first 10-14 days of August for crop development in the U.S.
🐂🐻Look for a quiet, choppy trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.87 3/4 which is the low from July 29th. Resistance is at $3.99 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.04 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.17 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.64 which is the low from December 19th. Resistance is at $10.01 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.71 1/4 which is the low from April 9th. Resistance is at $10.26 3/4 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.25 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are working on their 3rd day higher to close out the week. President Trump did extend the tariff deadline for Mexico by 90 days. Mexico is a huge buyer of U.S. corn and odds favor a trade deal will get completed in the next 90-days. Weather in the U.S. is still a non-event. Most states are just needed 1-2 more rains to finish off this year’s crop. Look for corn futures to trend sideways, looking for some new news to trade on.
President Trump still has not signed off extended the 90-day tariff deadline with China. The tariff deadline is August 12th, and the U.S. and China engaged in trade talks earlier this week, making some good progress. Without China in the market to buy U.S. soybeans, out soybeans we have on the books for the new marketing year are at the lowest level since 2005. Weather looks to be cooler than normal and decent chances of rain across the U.S. allowing this soybean crop to get a little bit bigger. Look for soybeans to continue to grind steady to lower.
Another day and another new low for spring wheat futures. Spring wheat compared to Kansas City and Chicago wheat has really fallen off. Traders are still waiting on some trade deals with countries like Taiwan could help give wheat futures a bump up in prices. Look for wheat futures to try and stabilize her in the spring wheat complex while Kansas City and Chicago trend sideways.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 4, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 11, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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