July 31, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 58-60c,
💲US Dollar is up 1-2 points.
-The U.S. has struck a deal with South Korea. South Korea will invest $350 billion into the U.S. and purchase $100 billion of LNG, or other energy products. Agriculture was also mentioned but all details have not been reached.
-Weekly export sales will be released here this morning at 7:30 am CDT. Here are the estimates: corn – 800,000-2,400,000 metric tons, soybeans 200,000-900,000 metric tons, wheat 300,000-700,000 metric tons and soybean meal 200,000-550,000 metric tons.
-November soybeans broke down below and closed below $10.00. The $10.00 area now becomes resistance.
-Soybeans did not like the news that the EPA was going to revoke the 2009 “endangerment finding” which ultimately could undermine billions invested to reduce carbon emissions and could affect U.S. Treasury incentives to programs like 45Z.
-Weather looks to continue to be a non-threat to U.S. crops.
🐂🐻Look for a quiet, choppy trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.87 3/4 which is the low from July 29th. Resistance is at $4.00 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.04 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.18 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.64 which is the low from December 19th. Resistance is at $10.06 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.71 1/4 which is the low from April 9th. Resistance is at $10.27 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.25 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures had an inside trade day yesterday. $4.10 area seems to be decent support for December corn futures, but rallies are hard to sustain. President Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea. The U.S. will be able to sell all of our goods, including agriculture products, into South Korea tariff free. Today is the last day to get trade deals done before tariffs go into place. I would suspect we will see a couple more trade deals announced.
The decision by the EPA to revoke the 2009 “endangerment finding” leaves programs like 45Z in question as to how much funding they will receive. That caused the soybeans to break support, and we saw November soybeans close below $10.00 for the first time since April 9th. The weather for the U.S. for the first week of August seems to be ideal. Mild temperatures and rains across a good portion of the U.S. should allow soybean crop to get bigger.
Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures continue to build a basing pattern while spring wheat futures continue to search for a low. Spring wheat harvest is just getting underway and so far, what we have heard is the crop is good quality and decent yields. Look for wheat futures to follow corn futures and they both look to consolidate here for a bit, looking for some fresh news to trade on.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 4, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 11, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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