July 30, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down 46-47c,
💲US Dollar is down 4-5 points.
-The U.S. and China have agreed to extend their tariff truce although President Trump still needs to sign off on it.
-September corn futures made fresh new contract lows yesterday at $3.87 3/4.
-Tariff deadline of August 1st is fast approaching. The trade is looking for a few more trade deals announced yet this week.
-The weather models are bringing in some more heat middle of next week. Key to watch is where the heat sets up and how long will the heat last.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today as the market tries to consolidate.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.87 3/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $4.01 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.04 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.19 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.64 which is the low from December 19th. Resistance is at $10.11 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.98 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $10.27 1/4 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.26 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures look to try and consolidate here today. Overall, the trend is still down but corn will try and take a break from the downward trend. Corn futures are building in some big carries in the market which is typical of large production years. Basis levels for fall delivery corn are expected to get worse, and I would expect commercial storage rates this fall to be expensive. Weather should not be an issue with the U.S. corn crop from here on out. A shot of rain through August and one in September should help finish out the crop. The crop is basically pollinated and sitting with great moisture. The only concern I could see going forward would be the northern corn belt getting an early frost and the crop not maturing very good. In the near term, rallies will be limited.
The U.S. and China have agreed to extend their tariff truce although President Trump still needs to sign off on it. The soybean market is patiently waiting on a deal with China with expectations we will see an uptick in soybean demand. So far, the U.S. has no soybean sales on the books to China for the new marketing year. This is not unusual as China typically waits until closer to fall harvest to begin buying from the U.S. However, we are still dealing with a huge South American soybean crop, and some fear China may have bought more South American soybeans to be less dependent on U.S. soybeans. November soybeans continue to find support just above the $10.00 level as the Funds wait to see what the August weather will bring. Right now, forecasts are looking to bring back some heat into the U.S. but so far this year the heat we have had has been short lived.
Not much new for the wheat complex. Futures continue to grind sideways. The August 1st deadline for trade deals is fast approaching. The trade is expecting some trade deals announced yet this week before tariffs kick back in and one would have to think the wheat complex could get some support from some new trade deals with other countries.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
August 4, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
August 11, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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