July 24, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-4c,
🍞wheat is up 4-5c,
🛢️crude oil is up 86-88c,
💲US Dollar is up 17-18 points.
-China is rumored to be suspending tariff exclusion for U.S. Ag Products.
-The heat across the U.S. does not seem to be quite as intense as feared. There are also light rains moving across Iowa here this morning too to help with the higher temps.
-November soybeans continue to hang right around the 100-day and 200-day moving average.
-After 3 straight lower trades, December corn futures look to close higher today.
-Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 am CDT. Here are the estimates: corn 500,000-1,500,000 metric tons, soybeans 400,000-750,000 metric tons, wheat 250,000-500,000 metric tons and soybean meal 250,000-500,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻Look for grain prices to close higher here today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.91 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $4.04 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.04 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.21 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.93 which is the low from July 15th. Resistance is at $10.20 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.98 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $10.28 1/2 which is 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.28 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures looked to close higher yesterday but then rumors of China suspending tariff exclusions on U.S. Ag Products come out and that added some pressure to grain prices. Corn remains well within a downward channel that we have been in since April. The heat does not seem to be too much of an issue this week and now it looks like some of the heat might be backing off a bit for the corn belt. I do feel the market is or has already priced in a national corn yield above USDA’s 181 and could be something closer to 183-184 bushels per acre. We still have a gap up at $4.32 3/4 on the December corn chart that could be a target area for a push back higher here in the near term. Rallies will be limited in the near term.
The soybean complex continues to grind and chop around the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The Funds are holding a relatively small, short position waiting to see what the August weather outlook will be. The U.S. has seen a little uptick in demand lately as South America is focused on exporting corn right now, but we still have a comfortable supply of soybeans in the U.S. and World. When you step back and look at November soybean futures, they have basically traded in a $1.00 range for the past year. There is a gap on the November contract up at $10.44 1/4 that could be a target area on the next move higher.
September Kansas City wheat futures are back testing resistance at the 20-day moving average this morning. For the past month, wheat futures have traded between $5.15 and $5.50 on the September Kansas City chart. The U.S. Dollar trading back down below 90 should help keep U.S. wheat prices competitive on the World market.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 25, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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