July 23, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 5-6c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 42-43c,
💲US Dollar is up 3-4 points.
-President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan worth $550 billion. The details are unclear, but Ag Products were mentioned as part of the deal.
-November soybean futures are back trading above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
-The heat looks to continue for a few days before taking a break.
-Corn harvest is getting underway in LA.
-Most traders are expecting a corn yield increase in the August Crop Production report.
🐂🐻Look choppy/mixed trade today as corn and soybeans try to close higher.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.91 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $4.17 1/4 which is the top side of the gap left from early July.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.04 1/2 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance comes in at $4.32 3/4 which is top side of the gap left from early July.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.93 which is the low from July 15th. Resistance is at $10.36 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.98 1/4 which is the low from July 14th. Resistance is at $10.29 1/4 which is 100-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.15 which is the low from July 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.49 1/4 which is the high from July 3rd.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are trying to stabilize here this morning. Japan is a large consumer of U.S. agriculture so the $550 billion trade deal should lead to an increase in Ag Product purchases. The heat stretching across much of the U.S. should cause minimal damage. In key states like Iowa and Illinois, many analysts think we will see record corn yields again this year. As December corn dips below $4.20 we seem to find some support but rallies much above $4.30 are limited. We still have a gap on the December corn contract up at $4.32 3/4 that could be a target area.
November soybeans continue to buy some time. Looking at the extended weather maps for the month of August, it looks like a mixed bag. There are areas of warmer/drier conditions, but other areas look pretty normal. This should keep soybeans trending sideways until we get into August. The U.S. is counting in a 52.5 bushels per acre yield and yes, the conditions today suggest we could achieve that yield but even just a 1 bushel per acre yield drop should support soybean futures.
The September Kansas City wheat futures continue to trend sideways between $5.15 and $5.35. The Funds are still holding a large short position in all 3 wheat complexes. The U.S. Spring wheat harvest is still a couple weeks away. With 52% of the spring wheat rated good/excellent compared to 77% rated this same week last year, will this be enough to get the Funds to start covering their short positions? World wheat supplies are still on the tight side so look for wheat to continue to find good support on breaks.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 25, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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