July 17, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 35-36c,
💲US Dollar is up 33-34 points.
-President Trump claims Coca-Cola will be switching from high fructose syrup to cane syrup in its Coke products.
-The U.S. had a flash sale of new crop soybeans of 120,000 metric tons to unknown destinations yesterday.
-Weekly export sales will be released this morning at 7:30 am CDT. Here are the estimates: corn – 900,000-2,100,000 metric tons, soybeans 350,000-1,000,000 metric tons, wheat 300,000-700,000 metric tons and soybean meal 200,000-700,000 metric tons.
-Weather models are putting in some heat into the heart of the corn belt late next week and into early August. This will affect soybeans more than corn.
-A year ago, is when the Funds started to buy back their big, short positions in corn and soybeans. Could we see the same this year?
-Indonesia has agreed to buy $4.5 billion in U.S. Ag products.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade today as corn and soybeans are bumping up against resistance.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $3.94 1/2 which is the low from July 11th. Resistance is at $4.08 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.11 3/4 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $4.25 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $9.82 3/4 which is the low from April 7th. Resistance is at $10.31 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $9.99 which is a support trendline. Resistance is at $10.27 which is the 20-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.16 which is the low from July 9th. Resistance comes in at $5.37 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are looking to take a step back today after rallying 3 days in a row and trading 18-19c off of their lows. December corn futures ran into resistance yesterday at the $4.25 area which is also the 20-day moving average. There is some talk of some pollination issues across the U.S., but I feel those issues are pretty small and not going to be an issue. The corn market has absorbed a lot of bearish news lately and in years when we rais big crops, we have a tendency to price in a bigger corn crop than we produce and we might have done that again this year. We have big corn supplies down in South America so that will keep a lid on corn futures, but I could see December corn chop around in the $4.20-$4.30 area.
November soybeans tested the $10.00 level a few times earlier this week and it held. Once November soybeans traded above Tuesday’s high, we saw some technical buying step in and pushed the futures higher yesterday. Traders are talking about some heat coming into the Midwest end of next week and into early August but the question on everyone’s mind is how long it will last. So far this summer the heat we have seen so far has been short lived. There is a lot of resistance on the November contract just above the market with a lot of moving averages stacked in between $10.25-$10.30 and that should keep a lid on November futures initially. Keep a close eye on the weather maps because if the heat does last a few weeks into August, that is what we would need to rally the November soybeans above the $10.30 area.
Kansas City wheat futures are back down testing support around $5.15 on the September contract. Winter wheat harvest is wrapping up and spring wheat harvest is a couple weeks away. The spring wheat crop in North Dakota is in question with a lot of dryness across North Dakota that could affect the yields. The recent tariff announcements are keeping a lid on prices for wheat as the U.S. is not as competitive.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 21, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
July 28, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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