July 1, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 5-6c,
🌱soybeans are down 7-8c,
🍞wheat is down 2-4c,
🛢️crude oil is down 3-5c,
💲US Dollar is down 46-47 points.
-Corn acres come in at 95.203 vs 95.350, soybean acres come in at 83.380 vs. 83.655 and wheat acres come in at 45.478 vs 45.438.
-Grain stocks show corn at 4.644 billion bushels vs 4.641 billion bushels estimate, soybeans at 1.008 billion bushels vs 980 million bushels estimate and wheat at 851 million bushels vs 836 million bushels estimate.
-USDA announced a phased re-opening of southern ports of livestock trade.
-Crop ratings saw a 3% increase in good/excellent ratings in corn up to 73% rated good/excellent while soybeans stayed unchanged at 66% rated good/excellent.
-Weather for the next 7-14 days looks to warm up a little and is a little drier, but that is exactly what the crop is looking for.
-A flash sale of 204,000 metric tons of soybean meal to unknown destinations for new crop was announced yesterday.
-The U.S. Dollar is trading under 97 and at the lowest level since February 2022.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today as crop conditions and U.S. weather are the driving factors today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.02 1/4 which is the low from June 26th. Resistance is at $4.20 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.19 which is the low from June 26th. Resistance comes in at $4.36 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $10.22 1/2 which is the low from June 26th. Resistance is at $10.43 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.13 1/4 which is the low from June 27th. Resistance is at $10.31 which is the 100-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.32 which is the low from June 13th. Resistance comes in at $5.51 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
There were no major surprises in the USDA Planted Acres and Grain Stocks report. Corn crop ratings saw a 3% jump in the good/excellent category yesterday as the Dakotas saw a lot of improvement with some warmer temps. Illinois did see a 3% decline in good/excellent ratings so that will be a state to watch going forward. Right now, the weather is turning a little bit warmer and drier but that should be good for crops. The key issue is will we get some heat eventually and how long will the dryness stick around? Areas like Illinois and Iowa did miss some of the rains last week and as they are going into pollination, we need to keep a close eye on the temperatures and how much rain they did get.
Soybean Quarterly Grain Stocks come in about 28 million bushels higher than expected. Looking at the current export pace of U.S. soybeans, this makes sense. Soybean exports have been a little disappointing that last couple months. There is some optimism that the U.S. could see some export business pick up as South America switches over to export corn. On the acres side of the report, soybean acres coming in a little less than expected sure paints an interesting picture. With winter wheat harvest being delayed, we could see a few less double crop soybean acres get planted. With 83.380 acres potentially being the highest acreage we see this year, we will need to have near perfect weather in August and with the weather turning warmer/drier in July, we could see some fireworks later this month.
All wheat acres saw a slight revision upward as we seeded more spring wheat and durum acres. Wheat stocks were a bit bigger than estimates as for feed usage were a bit lower. Overall, the wheat numbers were a non-event. Wheat futures are back down near support and at the lower end of our trading range. The cheaper U.S. Dollar should help support wheat prices as we will probably see an uptick soon in wheat export sales.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 7, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
July 11, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report
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