June 23, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 4-5c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up 73-74c,
💲US Dollar is up 58-59 points.
-Tensions in the Middle East are rising as the U.S. took out 3 of Iran’s nuclear sites over the weekend.
-The heat across much of the corn belt continues early this week before cooling down. Rains are forecasted this week. The big question, will the heat dome show back up again?
-Crude oil started out the night $2+ higher but are now trading well off those highs.
-Iran has said they will shut down passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Over 20% of the World oil passes through this Strait.
-Weather across much of the corn belt will be near ideal or crop growth. The Dakotas and Minnesota will be cool this week causing a little concern over the lack of heat units being generated.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.27 1/2 which is the low from October 17th. Resistance is at $4.40 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.33 3/4 which is the low from June 16th. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.32 1/2 which is the low from June 2nd. Resistance is at $10.82 which is the May 14th high.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.34 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.75 3/4 which is the high from February 4th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.40 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.70 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures started out the overnight session a little firmer but as crude oil faded, so did the corn market. Tensions in the Middle East remain very high. So far, we have not seen Iran retaliate back against the U.S.so the market will be sensitive to those headlines. The weather in the U.S. will be really hot for a couple days before cooling down and bringing in some much-needed moisture. Crop conditions this week should be steady. The focus on the weather will be if the heat dome shows back up. Pollination is right around the corner for the majority of the U.S. and a threat of the heat dome showing back up should put some weather premium back in the corn market. For now, the weather looks good, so July corn futures are breaking down below support with December corn testing support.
Soybean futures are holding up good here this morning. There is just not a lot of new news for the soybean market. Weather will be the focus for soybeans late July and into August. China continues to buy the majority of their soybeans from South America, but as South America switches over to export corn, there is some speculation the U.S. might be able to sell a few more old crop bushels. Soybean futures are trading up at the upper end of the trading range and with the big USDA report out on June 30th, some protection might be well worth the money this year.
Winter wheat harvest is rolling along. Tensions in the Middle East has the market wondering if we could see a little uptick in demand for U.S. wheat. July Kansas City wheat futures are running into some resistance around $5.70 and support comes in around $5.50. The U.S. winter wheat crop seems to be pretty good size but concerns about quality are high. Basis levels are weak as farmers look for places to go with their bushels and that could limit our upside on the futures.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 23, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
June 30, 2025 – USDA Planted Acreage & Grain Stocks report
Are you new here? Click here to subscribe and receive the newsletter in your inbox.
