Grain calls are higher. SK is near 14.30. SMK is near 418.2. BOK is near 51.80. CK is near 5.45. WK is near6.53. KWK is near 6.26. US Senate passed the $1.9 trillion aid package. It is now up to the House to
reconcile. This aid could push US debt over $30 trillion. The aid should help financial and commodity prices. Should weigh on the US Dollar.
Goldman commodity Index is near key resistance at 500 and 2018 highs. Next resistance on the weekly chart is 600. Talk of Crude trading closer to $75 and higher grain trade could help the Index to trade over resistance. This could also support, copper, silver, cotton and hogs. Some of the higher calls are also linked to forecast of wet weather across N Brazil and dry weather across central and S Brazil and most of Argentina. Some will begin got lower their estimates of Argentina corn and soybean crops. Brazil corn plantings may be delayed. Corn exports may not be available until July-Aug. Tightening US 20/21 corn and soybean balance sheets also suggest US 2021 weather needs to be perfect and US farmers will need to plant record 2021 acres to satisfy demand and increase supplies. There is some talk of a wet March and Dry July-August. Stay tuned! Lower Black Sea old crop supplies also suggest 2021 Black Sea weather will also have to be perfect.
New USDA Supply and Demand report is March 9.
Trade est US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,470 mil bu vs USDA 1,502, soybean at 117 mil bu vs USDA 120
Trade est US 2020/21 wheat carryout at 839 mil bu vs USDA 826, World 304.3 mmt vs USDA 304.2
Trade est Brazil soybean crop near 133.1 vs USDA 133, Argentina near 47.4 vs USDA 48
Trade est Brazil corn crop near 108.3 vs USDA 109, Argentina near 47 vs USDA 47.5
Managed funds could add to longs when position limits increase and in front of US 2021 spring weather.
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; net 32,000 contracts of Corn; 14,000 Soybeans; 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net 6,000 Soyoil. CFTC estimated Managed Money net long 31,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 348,000 Corn; net long 155,000 Soybeans; net long 65,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 108,000 Soyoil. We now estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 356,000 Corn; net long 166,000 Soybeans; net long 62,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 119,000 Soyoil.