Monday Video – Beans and corn need to hold. Cattle looking better.
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 6; HRS Wheat up 3, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 1, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 10 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 2 yuan in Soybeans, unchanged in Corn, down 15 in Soymeal, down 24 in Soyoil, and down 4 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 15 ringgit at 2,003 (basis July) at midsession.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run showed a cool air mass; though, not as expansive or lasting as long which led to some change in the precipitation; below average temperatures will occur in the Corn Belt, Delta, and Southeast in the second week
South America Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run showed no significant change with the meaningful rain event suggested for Brazil’s second season corn and cotton production areas; the model is advertising significant rain to fall in these areas, such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Sao Paulo; a round of meaningful rainfall is still expected which will promote better topsoil moisture
Rain in Argentina tonight into Tuesday and Saturday into next Monday will promote more fieldwork delays
Black Sea/Europe region
Models are advertising scattered showers and thunderstorms from the end of this week out nearly ten days. Rain falls in nearly all of Europe and the western CIS during the ten day period beginning late this week and ending around May 11; the resulting precipitation should be helpful in lifting topsoil moisture for spring planting and for winter crop development
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 20,000 Corn; net sold 4,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; sold 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 176,000 Corn; net short 6,000 in Soybeans; net short 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 16,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 160 contracts; HRW Wheat down 3,100; Corn down 990; Soybeans down 7,100 contracts; Soymeal up 785 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,600.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 3; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 267; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.
TODAY—WEEKLY DELIVERABLE STOCKS—-
Tender Activity—S. Korea feed groups bought 133,000t S. American, optional-origin corn— S. Korea passed on 40,000t Indian rapeseed meal—
U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 54% good to excellent (trade estimate was 57%) versus 57% a week ago and 64% a year ago; 31% fair (30% last week, 28% a year ago); 15% poor to very poor (13% last week, 8% a year ago)
—U.S. Winter Wheat headed was 21% versus 14% last week, 16% a year ago, 25% average.
U.S. Spring Wheat planted was 14% (trade estimate was 18%) versus 7% last week, 11% a year ago, 29% average
—U.S. Spring Wheat emerged was 4% versus NA% last week, 4% a year ago, 7% average.
U.S. Corn planted was 27% (trade estimate was 22%) versus 7% a week ago, 12% last year, and 20% average.
—U.S. Corn emerged was 3% versus NA% a week ago, 2% last year, and 4% average.
U.S. Oats planted were 54% versus 39% a week ago, 41% last year, and 56% average.
—U.S. Oats emerged were 32% versus 26% a week ago, 30% last year, and 37% average.
U.S. Soybeans planted was 8% (trade estimate was 8%) versus 2% a week ago, 2% last year, and 4% average.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running 5% ahead of a year ago (6% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 5% increase on the year
—Corn 36% behind a year ago (36% last week) with the USDA down 16% for the season
—Soybeans 6% ahead of a year ago (up 6% last week) with the USDA having a 2% increase forecasted on the year
Wire story reports the abrupt halting of the U.S. economy last month closed restaurants overnight and led to a huge shift in consumer demand toward retail, a huge blow for meatpackers and food processors with a primary focus on food service; the rise in retail meat sales was never expected to fully replace the demand losses in the hospitality industry, but now meat supply at the grocery store could come under pressure as COVID-19 has forced the closure of several U.S. slaughterhouses; thus far, the plant closures have mainly affected pork and beef, which account for roughly half of all meat processed annually in the country; animals and feed ingredients are plentiful in the United States, but the slaughterhouse bottleneck has and will cause pain for producers of both, as well as for consumers still cooking at home; retail prices for fresh beef, pork and chicken were already up 5% to 7% on the year as of mid-April.
Millions of pounds of beef, pork and chicken will vanish from U.S. grocery stores as livestock and poultry processing plants have been shuttered by coronavirus outbreaks among workers, the chairman of Tyson Foods; warned that the U.S. “food supply chain is breaking” as a growing number of plant closures have left farmers with fewer options to market and process livestock.
Due to the lack of employees at some processing plants over growing coronavirus concerns, about two million chickens will be killed instead of being processed and delivered into the food-supply chain; Delmarva Poultry Industry Inc. released a statement saying chickens on farms in Maryland and Delaware will soon be “depopulated” – meaning humanely killed; this is happening in Pennsylvania, too, though the scale of it was not immediately known.
Farmland values still healthy; farmland market mostly ignores coronavirus, for now; the farmland market remains driven by its fundamentals, but experts say the coronavirus pandemic will creep into the calculations as weather, commodity markets and government assistance push the levers on farm incomes.
—Although farm finances are tight for the fifth year in a row and the cash flow outlook is grim, farm tenants are generally honoring their leases this spring, real estate experts said, and land values appear to be holding steady
China’s soybean imports, which were down 13% on year in March, are expected to rise in the coming month as delivery issues from Brazil are resolved and more soybeans are shipped from the U.S., Commerzbank says; it adds that Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods have risen sharply of late, with 600,000 metric tons of soybeans bought last week; Commerzbank also notes that there is talk of China increasing state reserves and that unofficial sources claim that the lion’s share is to be imported from the U.S. in order to fulfill the country’s obligations under the phase one trade deal.
Brazilian meat processor BRF has registered 18 COVID-19 cases in an industrial hub that employs about 3,100 people in Rio Grande do Sul state, the president of a local labor union said on Monday; the town of Marau, where the facility is located, is just 33 kilometers (20 miles) south of Passo Fundo, where a chicken plant operated by rival JBS SA was closed down on Friday amid an outbreak of the novel coronavirus
Russian farmers look for rain in May as dry April brings no relief; rains are expected to arrive to Russia’s south in early May; rains brought some relief to part of Ukraine last week; spring grain sowing is done by 19% in Russia, by 52% in Ukraine
—Russian wheat export prices fell last week after several weeks of growth, tracking a decline in benchmark Chicago futures; a Russian grain export quota of 7 million tons for April to the end of June had been put in place; the quota was reached on Sunday saying that grain exports will now be suspended until July once the second-quarter quota has been shipped
—Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content loaded from Black Sea ports and for the nearest delivery was down $1 at $230 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week
—IKAR, another Moscow agriculture consultancy, pegged wheat at $228 a ton, down $4
—Russia’s April exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are expected at 3.7 million tons, up from 3.6 million tons in March, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said
Ukraine will not limit corn exports, the APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said
—APK-Inform said last week, again without citing sources, that the government could limit exports to 29.3 million tons this season
—Ukraine has exported 25.2 million tons of corn so far this season, 2.7 million tons more than this time last season
One of the driest starts to spring in Western Europe since 1979 is having a negative impact on the sowing and emergence of spring and summer crops, the European Union’s crop monitoring service said; with almost no rain since mid-March, the dry weather could hamper an expected increase in the spring crop area in Britain and France as farmers sought to replace winter crops that had not been sown due to unfavorable conditions; winter crops which benefited from rainfall earlier in the season were still in good condition, but more rain is needed to sustain a positive yield outlook
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 27.97 million tons by April 26, official EU data showed; that was 63% above the volume cleared by April 21 last year
—EU 2019/20 barley exports had reached 6.13 million tons, up 63% from the year-earlier period
—EU 2019/20 maize imports stood at 17.08 million tons, down 15%
European Union soybean imports in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 11.78 million tons by April 26, official EU data showed; that was 4% below the volume cleared by April 21 last year
—EU rapeseed imports in 2019/20 had reached 5.18 million tons, up 43% versus the year-earlier period
—Soymeal imports so far in 2019/20 were at 14.52 million tons, up 4%
—palm oil imports stood at 4.60 million tons, down 14%
European wheat prices edged lower on Monday as prospects for rain eased concerns about crop damage in Western Europe after dry weather during the past month; new crop benchmark December settled 1.4% lower at 189.00 euros a ton
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for April 1 – 25 rose 15.1 percent to 965,025 tons from 838,793 tons shipped during March 1 – 25, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said