NOTE:
Yesterday many farmers needed to decide what to do with basis contracts. According to open interest, many positions we offset. The farmer gave up ownership in a very big way.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 1,100 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,000; Corn down 30,000; Soybeans down 10,000 contracts; Soymeal up 2,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,400.
Commitment of traders report shows funds in a massive short 181k position in corn. Rarely do funds ever get this large a short position – only 4 times have they had on -200k and in every time, the market has bottomed. Commercial end user long hedge position is also at record ownership.
There is an old saying that farmers never participate in major bull markets. Just a saying – don’t know if that is true. But the point is that typically the large commercial client that knows value, has good pulse for future demand and upcoming supply does benefit.
Fed meeting – Every move the fed has made so far is to make sure there is an inflating recovery. They can set the foundation for such a move but the economy has to restart in order to make that happen. They cannot make people go back to work, drive the kids to soccer, and spend spend spend. If that does NOT happen, the feds will become concerned of a deflating or stagflating recovery. Both of which would be bad. Traders will be listening carefully to hear Powell hint towards the type of recovery they expect.
Bill Biedermann
AgMarket.Net
ADMIS AM Comments:
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 6 cents, HRW steady; HRS Wheat down 3, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans unchanged, Soymeal unchanged, and Soyoil up 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 1 yuan in Soybeans, down 4 in Corn, down 27 in Soymeal, up 18 in Soyoil, and up 36 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 16 ringgit at 2,336 (basis July) at midsession recovering from recent losses, following other oils.
U.S. Weather Forecast
A weather disturbance is likely to promote moderate to heavy rain in the southwestern part and some central areas of the Northern Plains involving Montana, South Dakota, and central and southwestern North Dakota Sunday through Monday; enough precipitation may occur to temporarily promote greater planting delays
The Midwest forecast looks to be in a pattern of below normal temps and normal to below normal precip
South America Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run still showed no significant change with the meaningful rain event suggested for Brazil’s second season corn and cotton production areas
Black Sea/Europe region
Forecasts suggest most of Europe and the western CIS will get rain at one time or another over the next ten days to two weeks; the precipitation will be erratically distributed with some areas getting more rain than others; all of the region will get precipitation at one time or another and it will benefit winter and spring crops; there is not likely to be much precipitation of significance in Russia’s Southern Region
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 5,000 Corn; net sold 4,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 3,000 Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 181,000 Corn; net short 10,000 in Soybeans; net short 10,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 13,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 1,100 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,000; Corn down 30,000; Soybeans down 10,000 contracts; Soymeal up 2,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,400.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 3; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 267; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—-
Tender Activity—Ethiopia seeks 400,000t optional-origin wheat—Taiwan bought 65,000t Brazilian corn—
U.S. farmers have gotten a solid start on their corn and soybean planting efforts this spring after making impressive progress last week, which is much welcomed after last year’s historic difficulties; the window of opportunity for planting will not be completely wide open this week as rain will be a nuisance in Illinois and the eastern areas, but even an on-time planted crop is very much in the running for a record yield.
Extensive Wheat Freeze Damage Reported in the Southern Plains; damage to millions of acres of winter wheat is becoming visible after temperatures plunged below freezing for several consecutive nights in mid-April; some guess are well over 50% of the state’s wheat was affected; Southern Plains growers face tough decisions about the future of damaged fields, and weather is unlikely to be an ally in the weeks to come; indications for May are for the warm and dry pattern to continue — above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation
CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News
Location WHEAT CORN SOYBEANS OATS RICE
Chicago 2,484 170 4,561 88 0
Toledo 6,915 0 0 0 0
Northwest Ohio 7,221 0 0 0 0
Mississippi River 1,290 0 0 0 0
Ohio River 181 0 0 0 0
St. Louis 2,169 0 717 0 0
Minneapolis 0 0 0 9,175 0
Duluth-Superior 0 0 0 3,195 0
Arkansas 0 0 0 0 13,044
Lockport-Seneca 0 469 143 0 0
Ottawa-Chillicothe 0 1,555 1,998 0 0
Creve Coeur – Pekin 0 0 751 0 0
Havana-Grafton 0 0 1,166 0 0
TOTALS 20,260 2,194 9,336 12,458 13,044
Week Ago Totals 21,372 2,841 10,169 12,440 13,759
Year Ago Totals 40,180 4,136 15,231 12,858 20,214
KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News
HUTCHINSON, KANSAS
04/24/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 21,704 21,686 24,121
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 900 900 900
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 22,604 22,586 25,021
—
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI/KANSAS
04/24/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 10,497 10,556 8,854
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 36 37 673
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 10,533 10,593 9,527
—
SALINA, KANSAS
04/24/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 20,144 20,747 28,024
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 0 0 0
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 20,144 20,747 28,024
—
WICHITA, KANSAS
04/24/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 22,096 22,058 33,205
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 1,537 1,537 1,660
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 23,633 23,595 34,865
MGEX deliverable HRS wheat stocks – Reuters News
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL RED WING
04/26/20 WEEK AGO YEAR AGO
Deliverable 4,018 3,985 1,148
Non-deliverable 0 0 0
CCC stocks 0 0 0
Total 4,018 3,985 1,148
—
DULUTH/SUPERIOR
04/26/20 WEEK AGO YEAR AGO
Deliverable 20,430 20,152 13,745
Non-deliverable 463 463 463
CCC stocks 0 0 0
Total 20,893 20,615 14,208
CME: Resetting Price Limits for Grain, Oilseed, Lumber Futures
- SAYS RESETTING PRICE LIMITS FOR GRAIN, OILSEED AND LUMBER FUTURES EFFECTIVE APRIL 30 FOR TRADE DATE MAY 1
- SAYS THE NEW FUTURES PRICE LIMITS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE FIRST TRADING DAY IN NOVEMBER 2020
- SAYS ALL MINI-SIZED GRAIN AND OILSEED FUTURES WILL HAVE THE SAME DAILY PRICE LIMITS AS THEIR CORRESPONDING STANDARD-SIZED FUTURES
- SAYS ALL HALF MONTH FUTURES WILL HAVE THE SAME DAILY PRICE LIMITS AS THEIR CORRESPONDING STANDARD FUTURES
President Donald Trump on Tuesday ordered meat-processing plants to stay open to protect the food supply in the United States, despite concerns about coronavirus outbreaks, drawing a backlash from unions that said at-risk workers required more protection; with concerns about food shortages and supply chain disruptions, Trump issued an executive order using the Defense Production Act to mandate that the plants continue to function.
—The largest U.S. meatpacking union said on Tuesday the Trump administration should immediately compel meat companies to provide “the highest level of protective equipment” to slaughterhouse workers and ensure daily coronavirus testing
—The meat and poultry industry praised President Trump on Tuesday evening after he signed an executive order using the Defense Production Act (DPA) to order food processing plants to stay open; the National Chicken Council (NCC), which represents about 95 percent of the chicken produced in the U.S., including Tyson Foods, Perdue and Sanderson Farms, said the industry was “grateful” for Trump for making the decision
—The National Corn Growers Association issued the following news; despite the current challenges due to COVID-19, U.S. pork and beef exports are on a record pace through February; the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) recently released the data, which showed U.S. pork exports posting the third-largest month on record and U.S. beef exports experiencing double-digit gains, year-over-year; February pork exports were up 46 percent from a year ago, and U.S. beef exports were up 18 percent from a year ago; even as COVID-19 disrupted export markets, demand for U.S. red meats remained strong
DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Monthly Crush – Apr 28
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2019/20 2018/19
Canola Mar 2020 Mar 2019 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 881,384 722,433 6,757,082 6,082,722
Oil produced 386,965 313,282 2,950,595 2,647,560
Meal produced 495,163 402,932 3,768,243 3,402,899
Soybeans
Seed crushed 150,539 167,645 1,191,399 1,422,554
Oil produced 27,615 32,026 218,272 270,324
Meal produced 116,783 130,913 927,412 1,095,966
Pork prices in China continued to edge down last week as supply increased and demand softened, official data showed; from April 20 to 24, the average pork price index in 16 provincial-level regions tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs came in at 43.01 yuan (6 U.S. dollars) per kg, down 0.8 percent week on week
—China has released another 7,942.21 tons of frozen pork from its central reserves to increase market supply and stabilize pork prices; China has finished 12 batches of pork release after the Lunar New Year holiday
Argentine farmers have suspended soy and corn harvesting in the country’s central grains belt due to heavy rains, while the extra moisture was expected to help wheat planting scheduled to start in May, growers and analysts said
—Harvesting had benefited from a month of sunny weather that allowed farmers to bring in more than half the 2019/20 soy crop and a third of the season’s corn before unusually harsh storms started pelting the Pampas grains belt over the weekend.
—Argentina farmers are expected to sow 6.7 million hectares with 2020/21 wheat, starting in the coming weeks, compared with 6.6 million hectares planted with the grain in the 2019/20 crop year, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said
—The exchange forecasts 49.5 million tons of soy to be harvested this year and 50 million tons of corn
European wheat prices fell on Tuesday as rain in Europe and the Black Sea region after several weeks of dry weather eased concerns about dryness causing damage to new crops; benchmark new crop December milling wheat on the Paris-based Euronext exchange settled down 0.6% at 187.75 euros ($203.3) a ton.
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