September 11, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 5-6c,
🌱soybeans are down 14-15c,
🍞wheat is down 7-8,
🛢️crude oil is down $3.27-$1.28,
💲US Dollar is up 10 points
-It is Crop Report Day. USDA will release their September Crop Production report at 11:00 am CT here this morning.
-Trade estimates for corn yield come in at 178.4 bushels per acre and soybean yield comes in at 52.5 bushels per acre.
-Crude oil prices are 3% lower here this morning.
-China continues to buy more U.S. soybeans from the U.S. They have purchased over 1 MMT of new crop soybeans this week.
-Corn and soybean harvest continues to ramp up with early yield results being mixed.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade to start off Friday and they all eyes will be on the USDA numbers.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $5.26 1/2 which is the low from September 3rd. Resistance is at $5.49 3/4 which is the high from September 2nd.
March corn – Support comes in at $5.41 3/4 which is the low from September 3rd. Resistance comes in at $5.64 which is the high from September 2nd.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $13.10 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.33 1/2 which is the high from September 10th.
March soybeans – Support is at $13.31 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.54 which is the high from September 10th.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $8.01 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $8.58 1/4 which is the high from September 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are pulling back here today. I feel this is a function of yesterday’s action being way over done to the upside as most of the strength yesterday was lead from crude oil. Soybeans got moving higher and once they seem to get 15-16 cents higher, we saw traders move into the corn market to get long. All eyes will be on the USDA today as they give us their updated estimate of this year’s crop. Trade is looking for a corn yield of 178.4 bushels per acre which would be a bout a 2.3 bushel per acre drop from the August estimate. Now, what if the USDA comes in higher than that like 179 or 180. What will the market reaction be? Only reason I bring that up is we don’t have a clue to what the USDA will give us for a yield, but it sure feels like this market is leaning heavy to the bullish side. I feel we will need to get a friendly yield number today to keep the upside momentum going. Otherwise, if the USDA gives us a slightly negative number and with harvest ramping up, we could see a correction in the near term.
On the soybeans, trade estimates are looking for a slight reduction in soybean yield with estimates at 52.5 bushels per acre which is down 0.2 bushels per acre from last year. With the decent rains across the U.S. this August, I think many traders aren’t looking for a major change in the soybean yield. Crop conditions did deteriorate a bit from the August yield estimate so it makes sense we could see a slight drop. China has been very active buying soybeans this week as they are getting closer to meeting their 25 MMT objective. Soybean prices this week have been a bit more sensitive to the energy markets as that has been supporting the soybean oil complex. Just like corn, the market is mostly looking for friendly report today, so I worry we have some downside risk. We do have November soybeans close to their highs so we will need to see friendly numbers or else we could see a correction here in the near term.
It has been a pretty quiet 24 hours in the Black Sea region. The wheat complex should not see any surprises here today as we might see a few slight adjustments to the overall demand. Wheat should be a follower of corn and soybeans today. Heading into the weekend, keep a close eye to any news headlines. This year it seems like we see escalation in the Black Sea region or Middle east over the weekends which can make for a wild Sunday night trade.
