August 13, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 3-4,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.50-$1.51,
💲US Dollar is down 8 points
-USDA lowers both corn and soybean yield to 180.7 bushels per acre for corn and 52.7 bushels per acre for soybeans.
-USDA increased their export projection by 75 million bushels for both old crop and new crop balance sheet.
-Corn harvested acres were increased by 1.16 million acres and soybean harvested acres were increased by 1.38 million acres.
-Corn ending stocks projected at 1.653 billion bushels and a stock to use ration at 10.1%.
-Tensions in the Black Sea continue with aggressive strikes shutting down some key export facilities.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 700,000-1,800,000 metric tons, soybeans 200,000-1,900,000 metric tons, wheat 250,000-500,000 and soybean meal 100,000-400,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed trade today after the strong market yesterday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.36 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.68 which is the high from July 24th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.57 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.92 which is the high from July 24th.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $11.33 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.84 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.72 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.00 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.78 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.35 which is the high from August 10th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are taking a breather after their 20+ cent rally yesterday. USDA give everyone a little something to trade on as they did lower their corn yield estimate but offset that yield drop with an increase in planted and harvested corn acres. Net/net, corn production last month was estimated at 16 billion bushels and yesterday the corn production was estimated at 16.013 billion bushels. Going forward it will be key to watch the weekly crop progress ratings as there is a tendency to see yields increase or decrease based on what the weekly crop ratings do from early August. Spreads are still holding their carry and overall, we have a good size corn crop out there so I feel rallies could be sold and we will find more selling pressure are we approach $4.90-$5.00. USDA did increase their estimate on old crop and new crop exports, and we are now looking at the carryout for the 2026/27 corn marketing year at 1.653 billion bushels which is getting close to 10% stocks to use ratio. Corn prices will be well supported on any breaks.
The soybean report felt a bit on the negative side yesterday. Yes, the USDA lowered the yield but that was right in line with trade estimates. The USDA did however raise the planted acres by about 1.4 million, so we ended up with a larger crop when the dust settled. On the demand side of the balance sheet, the USDA made only a few minor adjustments on the crush demand for both old crop and new crop and that leaves us with a carryout for 2026/27 marketing year at 320 million bushels. Keep a close eye on the weather forecasts and weekly crop ratings going forward. The weather forecasts look very beneficial for soybean growth over the next 2-weeks so if the crop conditions stabilize or would get a bit better, odds suggest we could see the yield increase. On the flip side, if crop conditions were to decline, we could see the USDA lower their yield estimate. I look for soybeans to find selling pressure as we approach the $12.00 area but should find support on breaks as we are still dealing with tight supplies and a demand that continues to be strong.
The USDA did not give us any surprises in the wheat complex. So, the trade shifts their focus back to the Black Sea region. Ukraine carried out attacks on some key Russian ports, shutting them down even more. The longer this escalation between Russia and Ukraine lasts, the more support it is for U.S. grain prices. Keep in mind though, any talks of peace or a sign of a cease fire between the 2 countries could send wheat prices down hard. Wheat will continue to remain very volatile.
