August 7, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are up 4-5c,
🍞wheat is up 5-6,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.20-$0.21,
💲US Dollar is down 2 points
-Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange missile strikes against each other, keeping the wheat market very volatile.
-A report yesterday showed Ukraine could reduce its corn and wheat exports significantly this year, potentially leading to more export business out of the U.S.
-USDA reports a new crop soybean flash sale to China yesterday. There could be more announced this morning.
-Old crop corn export sales yesterday hit a marketing year low but annual exports are running over 100 million more than USDA annual estimate of 3.325 billion bushels.
-December corn futures are finding support at the 50-day moving average while November soybeans are finding support at the 100-day moving average.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed to higher trade today to close out the first week in August.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.35 1/4 which is the low from August 3rd. Resistance is at $4.45 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.58 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.68 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $11.31 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.73 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.71 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.90 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.73 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.16 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
As we close out the first week of trade in August today, corn prices are a little stronger. There was a report out yesterday that Ukraine could drop their corn exports by 30% or more this year due to the fighting with Russia. Wheat exports from Ukraine were also adjusted downward. The U.S. stands a good chance at getting a good share of that business that normally goes to Ukraine. Add on top of that an already strong demand picture in the U.S., traders are optimistic that we will be able to handle this big crop in the U.S. In the U.S. it is crop tour season and many firms are coming out with their yield estimates for the August 12th USDA report. The majority of the yield estimates on corn are between 180-185 bushels per acre. A lot of attention will be on the yield, but we also need to consider if the USDA might adjust the corn acres as well. There are a lot of scenarios out there on what could happen next week so that should keep the corn market in a consolidation mode.
Weekly export sales were another disappointment on soybeans yesterday, coming in at the low end of trade estimates. USDA did announce 1 flash sale of new crop soybeans which is a little disappointing as the talk was on Wednesday we sold China 12-15 cargoes. Maybe today we get the official announcement of those additional sales. Weather continues to look really good for U.S. soybean production, but it seems like November soybeans trade below the $11.70 level, we see China step in a be a buyer. Firms are preparing for next weeks’ USDA report and majority of the private analysts yield estimates are for a 53 bushel per acre yield. It is just a bit too early in August to nail down a soybean yield, but the weather has been great, and the next 2-weeks continues to look really good for soybean growth. The Funds continue to hold a decent size long position so breaks in the market are well supported.
Wheat prices came under pressure yesterday as Russia hit a Ukraine vessel carrying wheat with a missile. Wheat prices will remain volatile as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues. The issue with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is no one knows how long it will last. A report out yesterday said corn and wheat exports out of Ukraine have been reduced significantly and that business has a shot at coming to the U.S. In a strong demand market like we have, potentially more demand will help support prices.
