August 4, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.95-$1.96,
💲US Dollar is up 12 points
-Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated.
-Weekly crop conditions saw corn conditions slip another 2% of out the “good/excellent” category while soybeans remain unchanged.
-Corn conditions are down 12% from last year and are under the 5-year average by 3% in the “good/excellent” category.
-Soybean conditions were unchanged from last week but are still down 6% from last year and ahead of the 5-year average by 1%.
-USDA June crush report saw 217.8 million bushels of soybeans crushed vs estimates at 218.3.
-Weekly export sales were strong again for corn with soybeans and wheat at the low end of expectations.
-USDA reported flash sale of 488,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China and another 136,150 sales of soybeans to unknown destinations.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy 2-sided trade today.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.39 which is 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.53 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.59 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.76 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $11.62 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.96 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.70 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.12 which is the 10-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.71 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.32 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices had a nice outside day higher yesterday after starting out Sunday night lower. Combination of the wheat market rebounding and concerns over crop conditions and yield in the U.S. helped drive corn prices 8+ cents higher yesterday. The rains that hit the corn belt late last week will probably stabilize conditions here next week, but corn has lost 6% in the last 2-weeks in the “good/excellent” category. The next USDA report is August 12th, and most traders are thinking the yield could come in 181-182 bushels per acre. The trade yesterday also seemed to be a technical led rally as December corn found support at the 50% retracement of the June 30th to July 24th rally and are now running into resistance at the 10-day moving average. I look for corn to continue to consolidate until the market gets a better feel on the overall size of this corn crop.
The soybean market was also able to shrug off early weakness and close out the day higher yesterday. USDA announced a big purchase of new crop soybeans to China. China being back in the market late last week is encouraging in that they will likely live up to their obligation of purchasing 25 MMT of soybeans. Weekly crop ratings were unchanged for soybeans from last week and are also just ahead of the 5-year average. Recent rains and a favorable weather forecast have a few traders thinking we could see a 53 bushel per acre national yield or higher in the U.S. We still have the full month of August weather to get through so any major weather shift could quickly add some premium into the soybean market.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain elevated. There were more reports of drone strikes in the Black Sea over the weekend so getting any significant grain out of Russia or Ukraine in the near term looks to be tough. The wheat market is just like the corn and the soybeans in that yesterday’s action was technical in nature. Chicago wheat seemed to find support right at the 100-day moving average and buying surfaced. Now today the Chicago wheat is struggling with the 20-day moving average as resistance. I look for wheat prices to consolidate here as well as corn and soybeans decide which way they will go.
