July 28, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,
🍞wheat is up 0-1,
🛢️crude oil is down $2.05-$2.06,
💲US Dollar is up 6 points
-Crop conditions on corn saw their biggest week over week decline in 20 years, loosing 4% out of the “good/excellent” category.
-Corn is rated at 63% “good/excellent” while soybeans are also rated 63% “good/excellent.
-President Trump said peace talks with Iran are going well and there is optimism a peace deal will get worked out.
-Weekly export inspections were strong again for corn and solid for soybeans and wheat.
-Trade flow in and around the Black Sea are improving.
-U.S. weather maps continue to put in more rain for the Midwest and upper plains.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy trade on Tuesday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.53 1/4 which is 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.68 which is the low from July 24th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.73 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.92 which is the high from July 24th.
1/4August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.95 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.50 1/2 which is a from July 24th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.99 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.56 1/2 which is the high from July 24th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.93 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.35 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Monday started off as a “risk off” trade. As the day went on, all commodities seemed to get weaker. Geopolitical risk in the middle east seems to be settling down and the U.S. weather forecasts are putting in more rain into the Midwest for the month of August. Now, corn crop ratings dropped 4% out of the “good/excellent” category and are rated 10% less than 1-year ago for the same week. We still have a lot of questions about the overall size of last year’s crop so if we are running 10% less on conditions scores, many traders are looking for a corn yield to come in the low 180’s if not lower. As more and more folks get out to check their corn to see how it pollinated, the trade will start to get a better feel for the size of the crop. We are definitely seeing crop conditions deteriorate in the west and upper plains. For now, it feels like we might have got a little too high-priced last week and this is just a short-term correction.
The soy complex got hit the hardest getting beat up by 2 factors yesterday. First off, the weather models continue to add in more rain for the month of August. Second, crude oil prices are down again this morning, adding pressure to the soybean oil market. China was pretty quiet yesterday, but odds are good they will be back buying some new crop soybeans from the U.S. this week. China typically likes to buy soybeans out of the PNW, but the PNW gets the most of their soybeans out of the Dakotas and that is where crop conditions are getting worse by the day. So, we may end up selling a few more soybeans to China out of the Gulf that what was expected. Soybean crop conditions are right on the 5-year average so there is still time for the U.S. to have a great crop and achieve the 53 bushel per acre national yield. If the weather models continue to add more rain or at least keep the current rain in forecasts, soybeans could see a little more risk premium get taken out.
Trade flow in the Black Sea region seems to be improving a bit. This is adding pressure to the wheat market. Add on top of that, U.S. wheat is just not competitive on the World market and prices are pulling back a bit. We still have plenty of wheat supply in the World, we just have some logistic issues to get through here in the near term. For now, it feels like wheat has topped out unless we see corn or soybeans start making new highs.
