AgMarket.Net Cattle Report 9/1/26
For the week through the close on 9/1/26:
Live Cattle
- Oct: +0.35 at 212.075
- Dec: -0.35 at 213.375
- Feb: -0.60 at 214.925
Feeder Cattle
- Sep: -0.55 at 320.35
- Oct: -1.125 at 315.40
- Nov: -1.40 at 308.525
Market Action
- Markets have been consolidating near recent lows
- Rallies have continued to be sold
- Packer leverage remains strong, cash & futures remain weak
- 9-day moving average key level to watch for fats/feeders – has been resistance
- Weekly continuous LC chart closed below trend support that has held since April 2020
- Support was at 214.60
- Weekly close below/resistance at this level is a very ugly sign
- Weekly close below 214.60 makes $200 nearby futures very probable over next 30-45 days
Technicals
October Live Cattle
- Last week’s low at 209.525 CRITICAL SUPPORT
- Today’s low at 210.50 major support as well
- 62% retracement was 215.675. Remains negative below this level
- Full 100% retracement from Nov 25 low to contract high is 196.75
- 9-day moving average at 213.40
- Close needed above 9-day followed by support to think a short-term low is in
- Packer leverage/weak cash remains a major anchor to futures
September Feeder Cattle
- 62% retracement was 322.925
- Last week’s low at 315.70 CRITICAL SUPPORT
- Full 100% retracement from Nov 25 low to contract high is 289.275
- 12/1 gap open from 314 – 315.70
- Gap is important to watch for hold/close below
- 9-day moving average 322.85
- Closed needed above 9-day followed by support to think a short-term low is in
Last week’s cash trade:
- Live cash- 219.33 versus 225.04 week before
- Dressed cash- 345.39 versus 355.53 week before
- Negotiated trade- 73,257 versus 79,292 week before
- 1-14-day window- 56,504 head versus 58,409 week before
- 15-30-day window- 16,753 head versus 20,883 week before
Cattle market rundown:
- Feeder cattle index- 329.14
- Daily slaughter- 106,000 head
- WTD slaughter- 207,000 head versus 205,000 LW and 125,000 LY
- Avg carcass wts- 887# versus 885# LW and 866# LY
- Choice cutout- Up 3.93 at 379.75- Tues PM.
- Select cutout- Up 1.96 at 360.45- Tues PM.
- 5-day averages- Choice 381.42. Select 362.08.
- Choice & Higher Grading %- 86.2 versus 86.3 LW
Fundamental Rundown
- Last week’s cash trade was 3-6 lower
- Light cash trade so far in north at 345 this week
- Bias is cash will be lower this week. Basis to October will pressure cash
- Packer leverage/lower futures/lower optimism driving cash lower
- Cash feeders likely remain under pressure
- Douglas, AZ feeder crossings totaled 2,500 head last week
- 1 New Mexico port to open end of Sep
- 1 more New Mexico port to open end of Oct
- Cargill Fort Morgan to slowly start production at the end of this week
- USDA announced Rancher First Initiative to Rebuild Great American Beef Herd on Monday
- Most meaningful piece was BRAND which is an LRP endorsement for heifer retention
- Insurance industry caught off guard by this and there are more questions than answers today
- This announcement seems like political pandering from the Administration following the uproar from the cattle industry after the beef import announcement
- One announcement was Prioritizing American Beef in Federal Spending
- Aimed towards Government cafeterias and nutrition programs
- Harvest to Hallways school-food push
- Government nutrition programs are small in the total beef use category
- LRP endorsement on bred heifers will be the most awaited for item out of this announcement
- Most meaningful piece was BRAND which is an LRP endorsement for heifer retention
- Major fundamental headwinds moving forward:
- Packer leverage
- Lower cash
- Heavy futures
- Record beef imports
- Mexican feeder imports will only continue to increase
Have a good evening,
