October 26, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 14-15c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c
🛢️crude oil is down $1.89,
-Brazilian President Lula won re-election. locking in his 4th term. The Brazilian Real is under a lot of pressure this morning.
-CFTC report showed the Fund continue to be aggressively selling corn and soybeans. Funds are estimated to be long 146,257 contracts of corn and 206,936 contracts of soybeans.
-Brazil is off to a great start planting soybeans. Reports show Brazil is 42% planted vs 33% on the 5-year average.
-The weather in the U.S. looks to be wet and cool the next 7-10 days in much of the Midwest and Upper Plains, slowing down harvest.
-First notice day for November grain contracts if Friday October 30th.
-The Federal Reserve meets this week and will announce their FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday at 1:00 pm central.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.44 1/2 which is the low from July 6th. Resistance is at $4.67 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
March corn – Support comes in at $4.58 3/4 which is the low from July 6th. Resistance comes in at $4.81 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $12.29 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.58 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support is at $12.50 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.80 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.26 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance comes in at $6.90 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
For the past few weeks, it has been all about money flow. There are still questions about the overall size of the U.S. corn crop and what the national yield be end up being, but the Funds are simply not willing to stay in their net-long positions, or at least not a record long position. The feeling is they think the corn crop is still big enough to meet the U.S. demand, and the corn global stocks are still in good shape. Add on top of this a strong U.S. Dollar, trading 101.31 today, and now a sharply lower Brazilian Real, the U.S. is having a hard time competing on the World market. Corn harvest in the U.S. had another big harvest week last week but this week looks to be wet for a big portion of the area that is behind schedule. Rallies will be limited on corn here this week.
November soybeans gapped lower last night as the Brazilian President Lula won his 4th election in a row. This news sent the Brazilian Real down hard and that has the Funds bailing out of their net-long positions in soybeans. The U.S. is having a hard time staying competitive with Brazil on the World market and now Brazilian soybeans just got a lot cheaper. The question for most traders is who will buy U.S. soybeans once China fulfills their 25 MMT obligation? Brazil is off to a great start planting their crop, but El Nino has yet to peak out. The odds of any significant issue with crop production problem in South America is getting less and less by the day. Soybean harvest in the U.S. is all but wrapped up and even with the lower board price, we are seeing spreads start to firm up a bit. First notice day on November soybeans is Friday October 30th so traders will be busy getting their November contracts priced out or rolled forward this week.
Wheat prices are the lone bright spot to start out the week. Wheat futures are most unchanged while corn and soybeans remain lower. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue with no peace deal yet. There is progress being made on a peace deal, but traders want to see actually action vs just talk. Wheat exports remain a bit sluggish as the U.S. Dollar continue to find strength, trading over 101 to start the week.
