October 12, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 8-9c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c
🛢️crude oil is up $0.72,
-December corn back trading above the 200-day moving average after a bearish WASDE report last Friday.
-Hedge pressure on soybean harvest ramping up as the U.S. soybean crop should be past 50% complete in Tuesday’s report.
-Crude oil prices up 70-80c.
-U.S. Dollar continues to trade at 18-month highs, above 102.
-Today is Day 4 of the 5-day Goldman roll.
-CFTC report Funds net long 317,359 contracts of corn and net long 251,660 contracts of soybeans as of last Tuesday.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.79 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.99 which is the 10-day moving average.
March corn – Support comes in at $4.93 which the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.13 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $12.68 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.02 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support is at $12.90 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.16 which is the 20-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.86 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.36 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are trying to bounce back a little after the shock the USDA sent through the market when they increased corn yields by 2.7 bushels per acre. A combination of the higher-than-expected corn stocks on September 30th and the increase in yield last Friday, added more than 400-million bushels to our stocks. The Funds were big sellers last Friday as some money heads to the sidelines. Many traders are still questioning the corn yield in the U.S., so we are starting to see some “bottom picking” take place. With the corn market about 70 cents off their contract highs, my focus will be on if we see export demand pick up. Harvest pressure will ramp up on corn the next 2-weeks as many farmers start to wrap up soybean harvest and make their final push on the corn crop. This will keep rallies limited in the short term.
Soybeans are finding some hedge pressure. After one of the largest soybean harvest weeks in history, a good share of them soybeans are getting sold across the scale. The WASDE report was mostly neutral, but we did see a larger than expected increase in soybean yield, 53.1 bushels per acre, and the general feeling is we could see that yield increase in futures reports. At the end of the day, the increase in production was mostly offset by a slight increase in demand allowing soybean ending stocks to just increase by 5 million bushels. Just like the corn market, I am curious to see if we see any more or new export activity after the price break. Soybean harvest should wrap up in the next 7-10 days so that will take the natural seller out of the market. Soybeans held up a lot better than expected last week in the light of the selloff in corn so I would look for soybeans to consolidate here.
December Kansas City wheat futures did break support at $7.29, and we saw the selling increase. December Kansas City wheat futures are now trading between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine to give wheat support, but the U.S. Dollar still trading at an 18-month high is keeping the U.S. uncompetitive. Wheat will continue to be a follower of the corn market here in the short term.
