October 9, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 5-6c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c
🛢️crude oil is down $0.92,
-USDA will release their October Crop Production and WASDE report at 11am CST today.
-Trade estimates are looking for a corn yield of 177.8 bushels per acre and a soybean yield of 52.8 bushels per acre.
-U.S. ending stocks estimates are 1.678 billion bushels of corn and 305 million bushels of soybeans.
-Harvest weather continues to be clear and wide open. I would look for harvest to be around 45-50% complete by this weekend or maybe higher.
-China is back from their Golden Week holiday.
-December corn futures continue to hang around $5.00 while November soybeans continue to hang around $12.90-$13.00.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.95 which is a triple bottom. Resistance is at $5.09 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average.
March corn – Support comes in at $5.09 1/4 which is a triple bottom. Resistance comes in at $5.24 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $12.66 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.04 which is the 20-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support is at $12.88 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.28 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $7.29 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.71 which is the 50-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
All eyes will be on the USDA today and the release of their October Crop Production and WASDE report. The report will come out at 11am CST. Trade is looking for a small reduction in corn yield. The trade is not looking for any adjustment to the demand numbers so after the increase in grain stocks from September 30th report, we are looking for an ending stocks of 1.678 billion bushels. One area we could see a surprise is the USDA might consider lowering their feed/residual number for the 2026/27 marketing year to get in more in line. Last marketing year it was pretty clear the USDA overstated the feed/residual number, and they made some adjustments, but we could see the USDA be proactive in trimming that demand number this year. If that were to happen, and the corn ending stocks, that would be a surprise and could push the corn market lower. At the end of the day, many still feel this corn crop will get smaller in future USDA reports.
On the soybeans, the report numbers are as of October 1st. We had very few soybeans harvested in the U.S. by October 1st so the odds of the USDA making many changes on yield are pretty low. Trade estimates are looking for a slight increase in soybean yield by 0.1-0.2 bushel per acre. Soybean ending stocks are projected to come in at 305 million bushels. The soybean numbers today should not carry any surprises on the demand side of things. The yield could be the area where we see a surprise. I doubt the USDA will make much of a change in yield considering the U.S. got a late start on soybean harvest but I am hearing of a lot of good soybean yields so maybe the USDA surprises us by increasing the soybean yield more than trade estimates? In other soybean news, China is back from their weeklong Golden Week holiday. I would think we will see China back in buying a few more new crop soybeans from the U.S.
Wheat prices continue to be more of a follower these days. December Kansas City wheat has good support at the 100-day moving average and are consolidating between $7.29 and $7.60. Russia and Ukraine are looking into other ways to ship their grain out onto the World market. These other pipelines to ship out their grain to the World will not be a “fix-all” solution but rather just a temporary fix. The 2 countries still need to ship their grain out of the Black Sea.