ADMIS AM Comments 102519

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $0.09; Soyoil down 0.14.


For the week so far wheat prices are down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 14 1/4 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 0.84. (December crushing margins are up 5 cents around $0.8375, oil-share is up 0.76% at 33.74%).


For the month to date wheat prices are up 21 1/4 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans up 27 1/2; Soymeal up $0.55; Soyoil up 2.12. (December crushing margins up 7.75 cents at $0.8375, oil-share up 1.17% at 33.75%).


Chinese Ag futures (JAN 20) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 128; Palm oil up 148; Corn unchanged — Malasyian Palm is up 14.


Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 14 ringgit (+0.59%) at 2398, paring their advance to a high of 2460 on concerns that prices may have become overheated after a strong rally this week and its appeal as a biofuel had diminished


Western Midwest: Chance of rain in central and southern Missouri on Thursday, dry elsewhere. Dry weather on Friday. Rain in Missouri and southeast Iowa on Saturday, dry elsewhere. Dry weather Sunday-Monday. Temperatures variable Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, variable Sunday-Tuesday.


Eastern Midwest: Dry conditions or just a little light rain in the southwest Thursday. Dry weather Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry weather Sunday into Tuesday. Temperatures variable Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Wednesday.


Some recent beneficial rain and cooler temperatures for planting and developing soybeans in Parana and the Mato Grosso Brazil. Dry weather favors the soybean harvest in northeast China. The withdrawal of the monsoon in west-central India will support maturation and harvesting of soybeans and groundnuts.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sellers of 5,000 Corn; net zero Soybeans; sellers 3,000 Soymeal, and; net buyers of 7,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 2,000 SRW Wheat; net short 69,000 Corn; net long 67,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 29,000 lots of Soymeal, and net long 57,000 Soyoil.




Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 24 were: SRW Wheat down 481 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,574, Corn up 87, Soybeans down 15,663, Soymeal up 203, Soyoil up 10,634.


There were changes in registrations (-43 Corn, -19 Soyoil) Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 1,006 Corn; 1,144 Soybeans; 1,516 Soyoil; 764 Soymeal; 11 HRW Wheat.






Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased 88,900 tonnes of US milling wheat.


Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it received no offers for feed-quality wheat or barley in a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Thursday. The ministry had sought 120,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 200,000 tonnes of feed barley.


Philippine importers have issued a tender to purchase up to 160,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 120,000 tonnes of soybeans.


USDA reported the sale of 264,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2019/20 marketing year.


Syria issued a new tender to exchange 100,000 tonnes durum wheat for the same quantity of soft wheat for bread making.


Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat, bringing the country’s current purchase interest to 600,000 tonnes


Jordan’s state grain buyer, the trade ministry, has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of optional origin milling wheat.


Bangladesh’s state grains agency has issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of optional origin 12.5% milling wheat.


Syria’s state grains agency issued an international tender for 150,000 tonnes of Russian milling wheat.


South Korean state agency has issued international tenders to purchase up to 150,000 tonnes of GMO Free soybeans. The soybeans were sought in six consignments of 25,000 tonnes from optional origins for arrival between March 2021 and May 2023.


Top U.S. and Chinese trade officials will discuss plans on Friday for China to buy more U.S. farm products, but in return, Beijing will request cancellation of some planned and existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.


China targets an increase in soybean area 8% to 9.33 million hectares in 2020. The central government has allocated more than 17 billion yuan to boost output in the northeast this year, 4 billion yuan more than last year.


China’s September soybean imports from the US totaled 1.73 million tonnes, up from 132,248 tonnes (8%) vs. last year and +3% from August, according to China’s General Administration of Customs showed.



Other China Imports for September

  • Soyoil Imports at 91,251 Tons, Up 15.4%
  • Palm Oil Imports at 577,589 Tons, Up 11.9%
  • Corn Imports at 139,576 Tons, Up Sharply
  • Wheat Imports at 138,008 Tons, Down 48.2%


China’s agricultural sector expanded steadily through 2019Q3. The added value of the country’s primary industry hit 4.3 trillion yuan (about 614.3 billion USD) through Q3, up 2.9 percent year on year. Disposable incomes of farmers jumped 6.4 percent year on year to 11,622 yuan (1,643 USD). China’s grain output is expected to be over 650MMT for a fifth straight year in 2019, sustaining 16 consecutive years of bumper harvest, he said.


AmSpec Agri Malaysia reports Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Oct. 1-25 period are estimated to have risen 13.4% on month to 1,243,981 metric tons.


Malaysia Oct. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports (SGS)

  • Total Exports:  1,202,650 tons;  +9.0% m/m
  • EU imported 291,575 tons; +6.7% m/m
  • China imported 243,738 tons; +35.6% m/m
  • India imported 148,870 tons; -38.2% m/m


Brazil is hopeful China will authorize more local meat exporters before Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Brazil next month. In September, China granted export licenses to 25 Brazilian meatpacking plants.


Ukraine had harvested 62 million tonnes of grain as of Oct. 24 and the 2019 grain crop is now estimated to come in at 71.8 million tonnes. Farms have sown 6.6 million hectares of winter grains, or 91% of the expected area.


French has Maize harvest as reached 46% as of Oct. 21, up from 30% a week earlier but well below 91% last year. Winter soft wheat planting was 29% complete, up from 21% the previous week and compared with 50% last year. Winter barley sowing was 50% complete, compared with 40% a week earlier and 61% a year ago. Field work has been slowed this month by frequent showers across France that broke a prolonged dry spell during summer.


South African farmers will likely expand 2020 corn plantings as improved weather conditions enhance sowing across. Commercial farmers intend to plant 2.52 million hectares of corn in 2020, which is 10% more than the 2.3 million hectares planted during 2019 season.


SovEcon raises Russian 2019-20 Wheat export estimates by 0.7 m tons to 32.6m as export prices and the crop outlook increase. Estimate for exports of all grains was boosted to 42.6m tons, up by 0.7m tons.


Lebanon’s wheat suppliers and bakeries warn that their stocks are dwindling because road blocks are making it more difficult for fuel and wheat shipments to get through, the National News Agency reports.


CME lowered soybean meal futures margins for Dec. 2019 by 12.8% to $1,020 / contract from $1,170. Rates will be effective after the close on October 25th.