Where should we sell? IS there still a chance of price strength after USDA’s report?
Weekly Video short discussion
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/recording/4306894106241432331
Bill Biedermann
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 1; HRS Wheat up 3, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 3, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 35 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 34 yuan, up 2 yuan in Corn, up 3 in Soymeal, down 10 in Soyoil, and up 18 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 66 ringgit at 2,359 (basis September) following crude oil prices supported by stimulus talk.
U.S. Weather Forecast
One of the largest precipitation changes in last night’s GFS model run was the increase of moisture across the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region Jun. 25 – 27; the central and southern plains will receive some beneficial rainfall Wednesday through this upcoming weekend; this will help increase soil moisture, especially locally, and may reduce the severity of the drought some
—Follow up rainfall and some erratic thunderstorm activity is likely Jun. 25 – 27
The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; net sold 3,000 Corn; net sold 2,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 27,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 296,000 Corn; net long 27,000 Soybeans; net short 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net short 5,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 7,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,000; Corn up 16,100; Soybeans down 2,800 contracts; Soymeal up 1,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 4,200.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.
TODAY—DELIVERABLE STOCKS—
Tender Activity—Taiwan seeks 88,815t U.S. wheat—Japan seeks 76,000t optional-origin wheat—
U.S. corn seen rated 71% good-excellent, soybeans 72% – Reuters News
| Category | Analyst average | Analyst range | USDA last week | USDA this week |
| Corn condition* | 75 | 72-76 | 75 | 71 |
| Soybeans planted (percent) | 94 | 92-95 | 86 | 93 |
| Soybean condition* | 72 | 70-73 | 72 | 72 |
| Winter wheat harvested | 17 | 15-18 | 7 | 15 |
| Winter wheat condition* | 51 | 49-51 | 51 | 50 |
| Spring wheat condition* | 82 | 80-83 | 82 | 81 |
Winter Wheat Harvested was 15% versus 7% last week, 7% a year ago, and 15% average
—Winter Wheat was rated 50% good to excellent versus 51% last week and 64% a year ago
—31% fair versus 30% last week and 27% a year ago
—19% poor to very poor versus 19% last week and 9% a year ago
—HRS Wheat was rated 81% good to excellent versus 82% last week and 77% a year ago
—17% fair versus 17% last week and 21% a year ago
—2% poor to very poor versus 1% last week and 2% a year ago
Corn emerged was 95% versus 92% average
—Corn rated 71% g/ex versus 75% a week ago; 24% fair; 5% p/vp
Oats were rated
—66% of the crop was rated good to excellent versus 71% last week (66% y/a)
—26% fair (25% last week); 8% poor to very poor (6% a year ago)
Soybean plantings were 93% complete versus 88% average
—72% of the crop was rated good to excellent versus 72% last week (NA% y/a)
—24% fair (24% last week); 4% poor to very poor (NA% a year ago)
Half of the U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybeans are in immediate need of rain after a warm and windy start to June, though the other half, including crops in Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana and Ohio, can hold off without a drink until the end of the week; crop conditions deteriorated the most last week for the Kansas fields, and the corn in Illinois and Nebraska have also begun to show signs of moisture stress; newly emerged plants in North Dakota are also in need of rain, despite the extremely wet planting season that curbed acres.
- U.S. MAY SOYBEAN CRUSH 169.584 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
- U.S. MAY SOYOIL STOCKS 1.880 BILLION LBS – NOPA
- U.S. MAY SOYMEAL EXPORTS 776,677 TONS – NOPA
—U.S. soybean crushings fell 1.3% in May, missing most analyst estimates, while end-of-month soyoil stocks declined from a near seven-year high, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data; NOPA said its members processed 169.584 million bushels of soybeans last month, down from 171.754 million bushels in April but up from the 154.796 million bushels crushed in May 2019; it was the largest May crush on record, topping the previous record set in 2018; analysts had been expecting last month’s crush to rise to 173.071 million bushels
—Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of May dropped by more than expected to 1.880 billion lbs, from 2.111 billion lbs at the end of April but up from 1.581 billion lbs at the end of May 2019; soyoil stocks, on average, had been expected to slip to 2.068 billion lbs
—Soymeal exports in April fell to 776,677 tons, from 890,931 tons in April. In May 2019, soymeal exports totaled 617,318 tons, according to NOPA.
Trade estimates for USDA grain export inspections – Reuters News
| Range | Previous week | |
| Wheat | 400,000-600,000 | 432,919 |
| Corn | 950,000-1,250,000 | 1,100,078 |
| Soybeans | 300,000-500,000 | 213,047 |
USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 15
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 11, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/11/2020 06/04/2020 06/13/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 0 196
CORN 910,495 1,161,477 678,024 30,583,120 40,857,127
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 200 0 0 200 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 222,400 196,102 3,669 3,738,487 1,469,358
SOYBEANS 376,323 274,052 680,370 36,114,746 35,649,452
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 444,031 477,236 382,670 657,501 853,436
Total 1,953,449 2,108,867 1,744,733 71,094,054 78,829,868
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running 23% behind a year ago (64% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decline on the year
—Corn 25% behind a year ago (26% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season
—Soybeans 1% ahead of a year ago (up 2% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
Even though China has purchased over 1.2M metric tons of US soybeans since Thursday, it appears that most of these deliveries are destined for next year. For the time being, US export sales of soybeans remain slow, according to the USDA’s latest inspections report
With last weeks’ WASDE report from the USDA yielding little in the way of surprises for grains traders, much trader attention has been reverted to weather conditions for nascent crops; much attention is also being transferred over to the USDA’s acreage and quarterly stocks reports; trade will immediately take the acreage numbers and affix the current WASDE yield estimates to revise production outlooks; considering the strong figures coming from the USDA’s weekly crop progress reports; most traders expect to revise production forecasts higher
China will see a bumper harvest of grains this summer thanks to stable grain acreage and improved crop yields, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said; summer grain acreage is 400 million mu (about 26.67 million hectares) this year; as of Monday, 90 percent of summer grains have been harvested.
—The quality of wheat has improved and its yield is expected to rise by 4 kg per mu on average
China has retaken its mantle as America’s largest trading partner, emerging as a rare bright spot for U.S. farmers and other exporters as the coronavirus pandemic constrains global commerce; trade between the two nations rose to $39.7 billion in April, up nearly 43% from the month before, and enough to once again surpass Mexico and Canada; the jump followed the signing of a trade pact in January in which China agreed to sharply step up purchases of U.S. farm products and other goods; U.S.-China trade remains well below the record $61.4 billion set in October 2018, and economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic has cast doubt on China’s ability to meet ambitious purchase targets set in the trade accord; China is nonetheless the only major world economy likely to post positive growth this year, according to a recent World Bank forecast
Russian wheat export prices held steady at the end of last week while global benchmarks fell, supported by concerns over the size of the Black Sea region’s new wheat crop; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports was at $205 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up just $0.5 a tonne on the previous week; another consultancy IKAR pegged new crop wheat at $206 a tonne, flat on the previous week; global prices were under pressure following a U.S. Department of Agriculture report that raised world wheat production forecasts by 4.9 million tons, as well as increasing its forecast for global stocks
—Russia’s grain exports will not be subjected to any quotas from July to December, the agriculture ministry said, citing its initial plan; the ministry, however, said it plans to impose grain export quotas in the second half of the season, which runs from January to June 2021, in order to ensure that the domestic market is adequately supplied
Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices fell $10 to $18 early this week, hit by a drop in global oil and vegetable oil prices, analyst APK-Inform said; the consultancy said sunoil bid prices were at $750 to $760 per ton FOB Black Sea, with delivery in June-August; it said asking prices were at $765 to $772 per ton
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 33.06 million tonnes by June 14, official EU data showed; that was 65% above the volume cleared by June 9 last year
—EU 2019/20 barley exports had reached 7.07 million tons, up 64% from the year-earlier period
—EU 2019/20 maize imports stood at 18.91 million tons, down 18%
European Union soybean imports in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 14.62 million tons by June 14, official EU data showed; that was 2% above the volume cleared by June 9 last year
—EU rapeseed imports in 2019/20 had reached 5.78 million tons, up 43% versus the year-earlier period
—Soymeal imports so far in 2019/20 were at 17.24 million tons, up 3%
—Palm oil imports stood at 5.43 million tons, down 12%
The European Union’s crop monitoring service MARS on Monday again cut its yield forecasts for winter grain crops in the bloc this year, citing low rainfall in northwest and eastern Europe, but raised its maize outlook.
—MARS cut its projected EU soft wheat yield average for 2020 to 5.60 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) from an estimate of 5.72 t/ha in May; the new forecast was 6.6% below last year’s yield and 2.8% below the average over the past five years
—The crop monitor cut its winter barley yield forecast for this year to 5.58 t/ha from 5.63 t/ha, leaving it down 8.6% from last year and 2.8% below the average
—For rapeseed, MARS lowered its EU 2020 yield forecast to 2.90 t/ha from 2.95 t/ha last month, putting it 2.0% below last year and 5.9% below the five-year average.
—In contrast, it increased its outlook for the EU’s grain maize yield to 8.20 t/ha from 7.94 t/ha last month, mainly due to improved, or continued, favourable conditions for summer crops in Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Spain; the EU average grain maize yield forecast was now 3.8% above last year and 8.2% above the five-year average
Australian wheat prices continue to trade at a significant premium to the global market but that gap will likely close as the new season crop becomes available and Australian prices fall; ASX front-month eastern wheat prices are trading flat at A$332 a metric ton.
—Australia has lowered its forecast for beef exports to China, its largest buyer, by 1.5% for the 2020/21 season as trade relations sour; the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said it now expects China to buy 227,000 tonnes of beef in the year to June 30, 2021, compared with 230,000 tonnes in its March estimate; that would amount to 30% less than in the year earlier period.
Indian farmers are set to speed up the planting of summer crops as annual monsoon rains have covered more than half of the country and delivered more rainfall than normal, a weather department official and an agriculture analyst said
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