Good Morning!
I hope your week is running smooth so far. Around our place, we are finished with most of our spring activities, including planting. While many of you have reported warmer and drier conditions with the need for a rain…especially in the wester-corn-belt, there are no guarantees. The storm that is forecasted to hit the corn-belt has the GFS model bringing solid rain west of the Mississippi and not much east of there. The European model keeps a soaking rain out of the corn-belt for now. I hope you can take the time and let me know how much rain you receive as we go through the season. While I stay in touch with many who read this, it would sure be interesting to see how much it rains and where it is. I appreciate your input…and look forward to getting a better idea on this crop’s sizes. matt@agmarket.net
The corn and bean markets were both looking dead on the overnight…then started the day session in the red. However, beans caught a bid and were able to close with small gains while corn closed mixed but well off the lows. With solid business of late on bean exports to China and whispers we could see ethanol sold as well, hopes are we’ll see a solid chunk of this Phase I trade deal happen. Weather again is being watched closely…after the conditions drop this week, some areas are certainly in need of rain or further deterioration is possible. Outside markets weren’t all that supportive as July crude oil settled lower…crude was down 42 cents on Wednesday at $37.92. This was 83 cents off the high and 71 off the low. The DOW was off 170 points at 26,150…after being up earlier on the day. The DOW has seen wild fluctuations this week indeed. The Dollar was up .12 as we see an attempt at a recovery rally after the drop we saw of late. The Dollar closed at 97.05.
Corn – The corn market looked dead as a doornail before getting a boost from beans and closing higher on the day. July corn settled a penny and a quarter higher at $3.30 ¼. This was a penny off the high and 5 ¼ cents off the low of the day. The EIA report from the Department of Energy was up again…this time for the seventh week in a row at just under 86 million bushels of corn usage. This was almost a million bushels above last week and 33 mb off the marketing-year low. The corn market continues to see reluctance from the funds to cover shorts as there isn’t any real story to be bought just yet. IF we would see a good chunk of the corn-belt miss this weekend’s rains and the heat persist…along with a hot forecast, I’d assume we could get a little rally started. However, if we see a soaker this weekend for the dry areas especially…watch out on Sunday night. My area is ok for now, but with the heat many of us are seeing, it doesn’t take long to get these crops stressed. I again am interested in showing some patience on corn…if we could rally into the weekend, a producer might consider a sale or two just in case we get that soaker. Otherwise, it’s safe to say we’ll know more at this time next week.
Soybeans – Soybeans were able to lead the way higher and rally well off their lows on Wednesday. July beans settled 4 ¼ cents higher at $8.71 ¼. The close was 4 ½ cents off the high and 11 ¼ off the low of the day. The bean market has been interesting of late. While huge sales to China have evolved, traders haven’t gotten too excited. Yes, the funds are long beans…a small position, but it certainly beats the huge short we see for corn. My gut on beans tells me the rally we’ve had so far could continue…especially with inclement weather. While I see a few more bean acres at the end of the month on the planted acreage report, the supply and demand balance sheet could get quite snug if these exports continue. For beans, I also want to give it a little time. While it’s way too early for a weather market for beans, there are enough good things going for the bean market to see support until we know more about the US crop.
Call me us you want to talk positions or strategy…or simply bend our ear. If you want more information on the markets, be sure to visit my team’s website at https://www.agmarket.net/ and be sure to watch our weekly video https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/recording/4306894106241432331
Matt Bennett
217-273-1133 – Work
@chief321 – Twitter
matt@bennettconsulting.net – E-mail
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