ADMIS AM Commentary 101619


Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 1 in HRW, and down 1 for HRS; Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 5 points.


Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 11 yuan in Soybeans, up 6 in Corn, up 1 in Soymeal, up 56 in Soyoil, and up 90 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 39 ringgit at 2,253 (basis January) supported by a softer currency, improved import relations with India.


Wire story reports despite a Chinese promise to buy more U.S. farm products, questions remain over how much, the time frame for purchases, and what the U.S. might have to give in return; Beijing is pushing the U.S. to drop plans to impose new 15% tariffs on $156 billion in consumer goods starting Dec. 15 and could use the farm purchases as leverage; Chinese negotiators continue to say purchases must be based on actual demand and at fair-market prices; Trump is far beyond what China has historically spent and would likely require Beijing to lean heavily on its state-owned firms to accomplish.


The evening U.S. Midwest GFS model has a system moving across the northern half of the Corn Belt the later part of October producing moderate to heavy rain and snow.


The two-week outlook has from eastern Mato Grosso and northeastern Mato Grosso do Sul into Minas Gerais and Bahia to see little to no rain through Saturday before a timely increase in rain occurs Sunday into next week.


Argentina will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next ten days with a mix of light to moderate rain most days.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 11,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; sold 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 6,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 18,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 113,000 Corn; net long 36,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 31,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 37,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 800 contracts; HRW Wheat down 3,500; Corn down 14,600; Soybeans down 175 contracts; Soymeal up 1,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 590.


There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 30)—Registrations total ZERP contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1,071; Soybeans 1,144; Soyoil 1,535 lots; Soymeal 764; Rice 1,077; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 669 contracts.



In tender activity—-Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat supplies for Nov 21-30—-Japan seeks 115,000t optional-origin wheat—


U.S. Winter Wheat planted is 65% (trade estimate was 66%) versus 52% last week, 64% a year ago, 65% average. U.S. Winter Wheat emerged was 41% versus 26% last week, 42% a year ago, 40% average.


U.S. Spring Wheat harvested was 94% (trade estimate was 94%) versus 91% last week, 100% a year ago, 100% average.


U.S. Corn mature was 73% versus 58% a week ago, 96% last year, and 92% average. U.S. Corn harvested was 22% (trade estimate was 24%) versus 15% a week ago, 38% last year, and 36% average.


Corn was rated 55% good to excellent (trade estimate was 55%) versus 56% last week, and 68% a year ago; 30% fair (29% last week, 20% last year), 15% poor to very poor (15% last week, 12% last year).


U.S. Soybeans dropping leaves was 85% versus 72% a week ago, 94% last year, and 93% average.U.S. Soybeans harvested was 26% (trade estimate was 25%) versus 14% a week ago, 37% last year, and 49% average.


U.S. Soybeans were rated 54% good to excellent (trade estimate was 52%) versus 53% a week ago, and 66% a year ago; 32% fair (32% last week, 23% a year ago), and; 14% poor to very poor (15% last week, 11% a year ago).


It’ll take some time to grasp the full impact of the weekend blizzard that hit northern US Farm Belt states, but USDA researchers continue to see crops well behind their normal pace after bad weather badly delayed planting last spring.


Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had

—Wheat exports running 21% ahead of a year ago (21% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year

—Corn 64% behind a year ago (66% last week) with the USDA down 8% for the season

—Soybeans 7% ahead of a year ago (up 17% last week) with the USDA having a 2% increase forecasted on the year






U.S. soybean crushings were well below trade expectations in September after tumbling 9.2% from the previous month, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday.


NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 152.566 million bushels of soybeans last month; that was down sharply from the 168.085 million bushels crushed in August and the 160.779 million bushels crushed in September 2018.


Soybean oil stocks at the end of September rose for the first time in five months to 1.442 billion pounds, from 1.401 billion in August and 1.531 billion in September 2018


Soymeal exports increased in September to 844,584 tons, from 699,212 tons in August and 785,267 tons a year ago




The Trump administration, in an effort to mend fences with the powerful corn lobby, proposed a new formula on Tuesday to boost biofuels demand, but the proposal instead only provoked more consternation from the industry

—the proposed rule, issued in a supplemental notice by the EPA, was met with harsh criticism because it bases the biofuels volumes required for blending on U.S. Energy Department estimates – rather than actual exemptions; only 11 days after President Trump’s landmark announcement, the EPA proposal reneges on the core principal of the deal; instead of standing by President Trump’s transparent and accountable deal, EPA is proposing to use heretofore secret DOE recommendations that EPA doesn’t have to follow


U.S. Weekly Deliverable Stocks of

—SRW Wheat totaled 41.2 mil bu versus 41.7 mil last week and 70.8 mil a year ago

—HRW 103.9 mil (104.2 last week, 121.5 mil a year ago)

—HRS 24.9 mil bu (23.1 mil a week ago, 20.9 mil last year)

—Corn totaled 2.3 mil bu (2.2 mil last week, 5.6 mil a year ago)

—Soybeans totaled 13.7 mil bu (13.1 mil last week, 11.8 mil a year ago)


Statisticians at the U.S. Department of Agriculture are considering adding revisions of the previous year’s corn crop to the government’s September quarterly stocks report, a USDA official said


Cattle prices in the U.S. have risen since September, as a protein shortage in Asia drives bets that l livestock will be in increasingly high demand; live cattle futures on the CME are up 13.6% from the start of a rally on Sept. 10 to above $1.13 a pound; retail prices are also up; prices for many cuts of beef were advertised higher this week than at this time last year; a common variety of ground beef sold for an average of $3.75 a pound this week, for instance, up nearly 20% from a year earlier.


Manitoba crop report

—Overall harvest progress is approximately 74% complete, below the 3-year average of 88% for the third week of October

China is poised to achieve a bumper grain harvest, not only securing basic food self-sufficiency but also giving steady supplies of quality grain products; China’s grain output is expected to reach over 650 billion kg for a fifth straight year in 2019, sustaining 16 consecutive years of bumper harvest, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.


What would happen to the world if there were an increase of nearly 1.4 billion hungry mouths to feed? China is expected to consume 700 billion kg of food in 2020, while the total volume of the global food trade is only about 400 billion kg a year; if China fails to feed itself properly, the rest of the world will likely suffer; however, the country has succeeded in feeding 20 percent of the world’s population with just 9 percent of the world’s farmland and 6 percent of the freshwater; a well-fed China is itself a contribution to world peace and stability.


Ukrainian grain exports from sea ports fell to 728,000 tons in the week of Oct. 5-11 from 1.46 million tons a week earlier due on lower wheat and corn shipments, preliminary data from APK-Inform consultancy showed

—Wheat exports fell to 473,000 tons from 994,000 tons, while corn shipments fell by 33% to 236,000 tons


Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct. 1-15 fell 5.9 percent to 659,437 tons from 700,935 tons shipped during Sep. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said


A palm oil industry watchdog will adopt rules next month that will impose fines on consumer goods companies like Unilever and Nestle if they don’t start buying more green palm oil to help curb deforestation in Southeast Asia, the regulating body said.