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I hope things are going well for you and your operation. For ours, we had a big rain on Thursday and Friday, so we’re trying to find a spot to run. We tried some beans on Monday afternoon, but they were testing 15% or so. While our corn looks ready, I’m not sure we have much if any that is under 20%. I’m not too excited about waiting terribly long, but at the same time, would like to get it to 20% or under as most of it has to go to town. We had a freeze even here in central Illinois over the weekend. Some of the river-bottom beans I talked about earlier this year…the ones planted in late June definitely got bit. We looked at them on Monday afternoon and the top leaves were dark to black in many spots. One thing many of you have shared is how slow harvest is going as you wait on stuff to get dry. Keep the faith and be careful when you get a chance to roll. I agree on how frustrating this year has been though. Please keep me posted if possible. mbennett@AgMarket.Net
The corn and bean markets started with a nice rally on Sunday night, as the trade was still abuzz over the US/Chinese trade ‘deal’. However, as the day session drew near, word from China started to spread that they were interested in more talks before signing anything. While I think that makes sense to be 100% sure before signing, many in the market over-reacted and we saw a sell-off. Fortunately, beans were able to get back in the black while corn settled quietly. I’d have to think it’s tough for people to sell much right now…at least until we learn more about just how much damage was done to these crops. The report is already old news as most in and around the trade feel crops are getting a decent amount smaller after the storm this past weekend. Outside markets were likely viewed as negative as the Dollar was higher while crude closed lower. November crude settled down $1.22 at $53.48.
Corn – On Sunday night, the corn market was up 2-4 cents for much of the session but lost steam during much of the day session. By the close, December corn had rallied back and settled unchanged at $3.97 ¾. This was 4 ¾ cents off the high and 4 ½ off the low. Weekly export inspections will be announced as well as weekly crop ratings on Tuesday as USDA offices are always closed on Columbus Day. The main news of the day again was the trade deal with China and US winter-like weather…along with South American weather. With Brazil finally getting a good forecast with rain in it, some bearishness was likely the case. As always, the Brazilian farmer needs to get the 1st crop into the ground early so they can get the 2nd crop safrinha corn planted in a timely fashion. Much of Brazil is prevalent to the dry season that hits towards the end of the 2nd growing season. For US producers though, some decisions need to be made soon. Don’t ignore what the market is telling you…as a strong basis and lack of carry should be telling you to sell corn. While I think ownership of corn is a good idea, some may be ok with just selling. Those who are still bullish might buy a cheap call though…as volatility is still low enough that call options are cheap relative to paying commercial storage. I’m not interested in selling until I learn more about the 2019 crop…especially with several good sales on already.
Soybeans – Soybeans on Sunday and Monday were mostly higher with some of the overnight enthusiasm dying down a bit. At the close, November beans were up 4 ½ cents, settling at $9.40 ½. This was a nickel off the high and a dime off the low. Without the government report, we still had a decent amount of information to process. With the better weather in Brazil, some pressure was taken off those who were worrying world bean carry would shrink drastically. If we’re honest about it though, US bean carry looks to be a fraction of what was once projected. This really is a complicated time to attempt price forecasting when it comes to soybeans. That’s why it’s a good time to simply do what works best for you and your operation. We’ve had a rally of 90 cents over the last few weeks…nothing to scoff at indeed.
Let us know if you’d like to discuss any strategies. Be safe out there and have a great week!
Matt Bennett
217-273-1133 – Work
@chief321 – Twitter
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