ADMIS Sunday night grain comments
Grain calls are mixed to higher. March Madness. SK is near 14.16. SMK is near 407.9. BOK is near 53.87.
CK is near 5.57. WK is near 6.27. KWK is near 5.85.
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index traded lower last week led by steep losses in energies. US Dollar rallied
on the forecast of US economic recovery and talk of higher US interest rates. US central bank pledged low
rates until 2023. Higher Dollar also weighed on commodity prices.
Corn futures were higher after China bought 4 mmt of US corn. Commercials feel China could continue to
buy additional US corn. This demand could drop US corn carryout below 1,000 mil bu versus USDA guess
of 1,502. This could help push CK over 6.00. Talk of increasing US domestic corn demand could also
support basis and nearby futures. USDA March 31 stocks report will be key to prices. US farmers will also
need to add more than 92.0 million acres in 2021.
Talk of dry weather returning to Argentina and could expand into south and central Brazil could support
nearby soybean futures. US and China talks ended but some feel China will meet the year 2 buying of
$43.5 billion of US Ag goods. USDA March 31 soybean stocks could be key to nearby soybean prices. US
farmers will need to plant more than 90.0 million acres of soybean in 2021 prices. There was increase
consumer buying soybean near the 50 day moving average support.
Wheat is wheat. Prices have dropped due to improved weather across most of US south plains. 7 day
forecast has more rain for south plains but north plains will remain dry with temps above average.
World wheat demand tends to increase in July/August. There remains uncertainty if Russia new crop
wheat will be offered and at what price. This could support prices.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 Corn; net
12,000 Soybeans; 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net 2,000 lots of Soyoil. CFTC estimated Managed Money
net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 371,000 Corn; net long 156,000 Soybeans; net long
61,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 98,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 14,000 contracts
of SRW Wheat; long 388,000 Corn; net long 168,000 Soybeans; net long 67,000 lots of Soymeal, and;
long 100,000 Soyoil.