November 4, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 10-11c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c
🛢️crude oil is down $0.50,
-The Democrats are projected to take over both chambers of Congress.
-USDA announced flash sales of 315,000 mt of corn to Mexico and 136,000 mt of corn to South Korea while announcing another 134,000 mt sale of soybeans to unknown destinations.
-StoneX increased their yield and production estimates in their latest survey. StoneX corn yield came in at 183.1 bushels per acre and 55.0 bushel per acre on soybeans.
-Corn harvest is still being delayed in the west. The big rain system should move out today and into Thursday.
-Soybean futures are down testing support at the 200-day moving average.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.25 3/4 which is the contract low. Resistance is at $4.50 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
March corn – Support comes in at $4.41 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $4.64 which is the 10-day moving average.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $12.03 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.37 which is the 10-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support is at $12.05 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.45 which is the 10-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.26 which is the low from June 30th. Resistance comes in at $6.49 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market is starting to see some export demand pick up. The past 2 days, the USDA has announced some flash sales of corn. Most of the corn is going to Mexico but it does signal to myself that the U.S. is getting cheap enough. However, the Funds seem to want to build a net short position in corn. StoneX released their latest survey update for their corn yield, and we saw them increase their corn yield by 1 bushel per acre from their October survey. USDA is still projecting a 181.2 bushels per acres corn yield while StoneX survey came in at 183.1 bushels per acre. Now, historically StoneX has a tendency to be higher than the final corn yield in January so this will be closely watched. The U.S. Dollar is getting a bit cheaper but still trading over 101. The key to increase export demand will be a cheaper U.S. Dollar and cheaper energy prices to get freight rates lower.
The Funds seem to want to get out of their long positions in the soy complex. January soybeans are down testing support at the 200-day moving average here this morning and so far, it is holding. StoneX did raise their soybean production estimate by raising their soybean yield this month by 0.9 bushels per acre to a yield estimate of 55.0 bushels per acre. This would be a record yield for U.S. soybeans by close to 2 bushels per acre if realized. As of last Tuesday, the Funds were still holding a rather big net long position, but they have been actively offloading those long positions for over a week now. The USDA did announce a flash sale of 134,000 soybeans to unknown destinations. Demand is decent for U.S. soybeans but with the Funds wanting out of their long positions, the trend remains down.
Wheat prices are trying to stabilize here today after selling off yesterday again. Overall, commodities as a whole were under pressure so we saw net selling across all the grain and livestock markets. So far, December Kansas City wheat continues to hold support at $6.26, which is the June 30th low. The U.S. Dollar is working a bit lower but for the U.S. to be competitive on the World market, we probably need to see the U.S. Dollar back under 100. I continue to see wheat being a follower of the corn market.
