October 2, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 6-7c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c
🛢️crude oil is down $3.53,
-Crude oil down 3.7% this morning as the U.S. looks to send a 3rd aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 troops over to the Middle east.
-Heavy rains swept across Iowa the past 24 hours, pushing back harvest even further.
-Strong export sales for soybeans yesterday but there were some soybean meal cancelations.
-Harvest in the west should get rolling this weekend.
-Russia is open to peace talks with Ukraine but requires some security guarantees.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed/lower trade to close out the week.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.85 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $5.21 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
March corn – Support comes in at $4.99 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.35 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $12.58 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.05 which is the 10-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support is at $12.79 1/2 which is the low from September 14th. Resistance is at $13.29 which is the 10-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $7.28 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.57 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures continue to hold around the $5.00 level. Harvest delays for Iowa continue but we should see harvest in the west pickup this weekend and into next week. Quality concerns across Iowa and Nebraska are creeping up. Hearing more and more talk of sprout damage on the ears while there are some issues with aflatoxin in the corn as well. The Funds have sold off a few positions but are still carrying a pretty big net long position. We still have the super El Nino in effect and we need to watch the weather closely in South America. Traders will now turn their focus to harvest and yields. USDA will give us their next update on yield on October 9th. My guess is we will see a slight drop in corn yields in that report. For now, I look for December corn to trade between $4.98 and $5.15.
There is some concern in the soybean complex about exports slowing down. Export sales out yesterday were above expectations but we have not seen much for flash sales announced this week. Harvest should ramp up in the west this weekend and if the yields continue to come in like the early results, we could see some hedge pressure. Weahter in South America seems to be heating up a bit. I am hearing of hot and dry conditions starting to set up for central and northern Brazil. Now, it is early in their growing season but the super El Nino has not peaked out yet. This will be something to have a close eye on simply because if South America has a hiccup in production, that could lead to higher prices. For now, I look for soybeans to trade between $12.70 and $13.00.
Russia continues to struggle to get much grain shipped out of its country and is now reportedly interested in holding talks with Ukraine on a potential peace deal. Now, Russia has some demands that will need to be met before the 2 countries can sit down and talk a peace deal so this could just be all smoke again. We have seen too many times where these 2 countries want to have peace talks, only to see them swap drone attacks on each other. December Kansas City wheat continues to find good support at the 100-day moving average, but rallies will be limited.
