August 12, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1c,
🌱soybeans are down 1c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up $2.00,
-USDA report comes out at 11 today
expect a lot of market movement post report
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.35 1/4 which is the low from August 3rd. Resistance is at $4.46 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.58 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.68 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
September soybeans – Support comes in at $11.31 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.87 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.51which is the July 6th Low . Resistance is at $12.02 which is the 20-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.73 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.16 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
All eyes are going to be on August WASDE – Whats your guess?
Risk management reminder to not put a marketing plan together based on your bias of where report is going to go – instead focus on risk for your operation and hedge accordingly.
Corn yield estimates are relatively tight in a 4 bushel range with average trade guess at 182.4 vs the USDA at 183. keeping everything else constant anything below a 182 I would argue as bullish. If you’re watching overall production numbers getting much above 16 bln bu would be a bearish number. Acres feels like the true wild card and the bearish card no one wants flipped over – last year we had a big yield AND a big increase in acres. if you look at the past 20 years its isn’t exactly common to adjust acres on the August WASDE but it can definitely happen.
Soybean estimates are close to USDA at a 52.9 vs a 53. We did see Nov soybeans break through the 100 day support at 11.71 but only by a little. While corn could see a variable yield and acreage adjustment – soybeans feels like any volatility is going to come from acreage. I say that based on where analysts have the yield pegged – If I was basing it on my backyard I would say we could see a 2-3 bushel increase..we have potential for some great soybean yields in central Illinois.
Weather remains generally supportive with rains forecasted for much of the corn belt – some talk of severe weather risk which will always draw attention. Aug 10th 2020 we all learned what a derecho was when it ripped across Iowa.