Subject: Sunday night and Matt Bennett’s Weekly Comments
Sunday Night
Economy – CV19may not reach peak until next week. Thus expect some more weakness this week. Biggest threat is the length of economic slow down. Most major cities or states with major cities are shutting down to preserve orderly flow into hospitals. One-two weeks after numbers peak, it is expected cities will go back “on-line”. China is reported at near 90%.
But the worst is still ahead for most countries. At least another week or two in the US.
Weather – concern increases for S American Safrinha corn. About 20%of growing areas have some degree of stress. Rains are expected but not expected to rebuild soil profile.
China buying meal, corn (only a few of us in the industry thought we would see that happen), wheat Sorghum, meat. One and done? Probably not. If they need it and they do, they will buy it even if President Trump is bashing them with the China Virus.
International shipping – Arg ports all on strike thu Wednesday. Any immediate meal shipments will have to come though US.
Russia – port disruptions have been reported due to CV19
Expect a lower tone coming from economic concern and the potential for another significant drop in stocks as 2 weeks to 2 month potential shut down threaten any countries economic activity. Based on any history lessen, we would think food will find the bottom first, then energy. But there is no indication that has happened in most commodities. Maybe Meal and meats. This week will be interesting to watch. Keep positions small.
Bill Biedermann
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