Good Morning!
I hope you got lucky and had some rain this week. Around our farm, we had .2 to .4 of an inch and I’ll take it. That’s the first rain we’ve had in three weeks, but we came into that timeframe in pretty good shape as far as subsoil moisture is concerned. We are itching to get started around here, but none of our corn is dry enough. Most of our early-April corn is now black-layered and drying some every day. The biggest issue I see moving forward is the forecast. It appears we have highs in the low to mid-70s in my area for much of the two-week forecast. With that being said, my goal is to shell corn by next weekend…not this one. IF I can get a drying deal, we could get quite a bit of corn out…we don’t have a drying system, so we’d be reliant on the elevator. I’d like to hear how it’s going on your operation this fall. Please keep us posted as you get going. matt@agmarket.net
The corn and bean markets were trading in the red on Tuesday night as many areas received some rain. However, the day session saw both corn and beans claw back with beans posting nice gains. There’s no doubt the funds appear very interested in being long corn and beans as they amass a big bean long and have wiped out the corn short. With solid corn sales so far this week, demand remains strong for both commodities. Outside markets were likely neutral as October crude oil settled down $1.25 at $41.51. This was $1.70 off the high and 28 cents low of the day. The DOW was up 468 points at 29,090. The Dollar was getting back some of its recent losses, settling up .293 at 92.630.
Corn – The corn market was getting beat up for parts of both sessions before moving back towards unchanged on the day session. December corn closed three-quarters of a penny higher at $3.58 ¾. This was three-quarters of a penny off the high and 4 ½ cents off the low of the day. The EIA report from the Department of Energy showed corn usage for ethanol down about a million bushels from a week ago at just under 92.5 million bushels of corn usage. The corn market couldn’t get any traction on the overnight market and the early part of the day session before buying came in. While corn couldn’t get the gains beans enjoyed, they got back their losses as the trade heard unconfirmed reports from China indicating massive amounts of corn would need to be purchased to avoid food shortages moving forward. Given recent purchases, many feel this is just verification of what many of us have believed for some time…that China couldn’t continue to use more corn than they produced and make it work. This sounds pretty bullish…but ultimately, the US has a good-sized crop. In fact, one big firm estimated the yield at 178.4, which is a little bigger than ProFarmer and enough to keep us safely above 2 billion bushels for a carry-out. My stance is still to be selling some of the rally IF you have an above-APH yield and to not get off-balance if you’re at or below your APH. It’s a tough year to market corn and each situation is unique.
Soybeans – Soybeans performed better than corn again on Wednesday, getting back the losses from the overnight and then some. November beans settled up 7 ¼ cents at $9.62. The close was a penny off the high and 16 cents off the low of the day. The bean market continues its impressive run of late, bolstered by a shrinking US crop due to a tough August while demand continues to impress. It’s crazy to see the radar from Tuesday night and think we could see beans settle higher. No, it wasn’t a soaking rain for everyone, but any rain is sure to help considering what this crop has gone through the last few weeks. With this being said, beans trading down 8+ cents on the overnight seemed realistic…so why did we bounce back so strong? Part of the reason from my vantage point is talk the US has sold 8 or more cargoes of US beans to the Chinese…which was circulating later in the session. China’s purchases have been robust…and if they continue, it’s reasonable to think this bean market could continue to march higher. For me, I’ll continue to reward the market once I get an idea of what yields are. I’ve been fairly aggressive so far…and have left some money on the table, but the good thing is my lowest sale will be quite profitable at the yields I’m looking at. If we can remember the importance there, we’ll do a better job, in my humble opinion.
Call us if you want to talk positions or strategy…or simply bend our ear. If you want more information on the markets, be sure to visit my team’s website at https://www.agmarket.net/
Matt Bennett
217-273-1133 – Work
@chief321 – Twitter
matt@bennettconsulting.net – E-mail
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