Good Morning!
It’s the middle of spring, but for many of us, the weather is inhibiting the kind of progress we’d like to make. While I’ve heard from many of you getting along great, others like us have struggled with rain showers every few days. We planted beans on Monday and Tuesday before getting a shower Tuesday afternoon. While it didn’t amount to much, the rain this coming weekend is forecast to be a doozy. With many of the forecasts calling for 2-4 inches over a broad span, planting might come to a halt for a bunch of us. We’re 40% done overall-but if Mother Nature could cooperate, we could get done in 5 days. I appreciate all the feedback and updates. Keep them coming if possible. mbennett@agmarket.net
The corn and bean markets both rallied on Tuesday as buyers continue to show up. While many feel much of the buying is short-covering from the funds, it’s buying nonetheless and we’ll take it. Wet forecasts are likely the biggest reason for this rally given what looks like will be a much slower pace the next week or two. Outside markets were mixed. The US Dollar was .408 lower, settling at 105.505. June crude oil settled up 1.46 at 83.36. The DOW settled 258 points higher at 38,726.
Corn – The corn market is trying to put together a nice rally as we move through spring. May corn settled at $4.43, up 3 ¼ cents on the day. This was three-quarters of a penny off the high and 4 ½ cents off the low. Weekly export inspections on Monday were a marketing year high at 1.623m tons. This was 300k more than last week’s shipments. Monday showed planted acreage on corn at 12%, six points better than a week ago and two point better than the five-year average. Again, much of the buying is due to worry about weather as the funds buy back their shorts. I think this rally could go higher yet, but at the same time, I’d be managing some risk for those who feel they’re behind. While we want to keep from getting oversold, having worst-case scenarios locked in after the market has rallied is good business.
Soybeans – Soybeans saw both sides of unchanged but settled closer to the high. May beans settled at $11.67 ½, up 6 ½ cents. This was a penny and a half off the high and 9 ½ cents off the low. Meal and soy oil were both up slightly. Weekly export inspections were about the same as last week at 435k. With corn business so strong, this week’s bean shipments weren’t bad at all. Soybean planting jumped to 8% planted from 3% a week ago. The five-year average is 4%, so bean planting has jumped out of the gate this year. The big issue of course is how slow it might get with all the rain they’re talking. While we can raise good beans that are planted later, the really big yields have certainly been tied to earlier planting the last few years. I suppose a weather-related rally for beans is just as likely as it is for corn. As prices are finally seeing some life, I think it’s wise to dust off your break-evens if you haven’t looked at them in a bit-and throw some offers out there. While a bounce is always possible, it’s awfully tough to catch this bean market due to how fast it can move.
Call me if you want to talk positions or strategy. If you want more information on the markets, be sure to visit my team’s website at https://agmarket.net/
Matt Bennett
217-273-1133 – Work
@chief321 – Twitter
mbennett@agmarket.net – E-mail
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