Good Morning!
I hope all is well around your operation. Around ours, we’re still at a halt for now. With temperatures in the 50s up to 60 during the day and down in the low-40s overnight, we haven’t gotten the drying we’ve hoped for. It’s been sunny with plenty of wind, but we need some heat. Either way, maybe it’s Mother Nature’s way of keeping us out of the field for another day or two. While we planted beans the first time around, I’m assuming we’ll plant both corn and beans this time around. We decided to go ahead and work plenty of ground as we know as cool as it was we wouldn’t be likely to lose any moisture. Long story short, if we can get the ground to work right, we could put quite a few acres in the ground very quickly. Keep me posted you’re up to around your place. mbennett@agmarket.net
The corn and bean markets both had a nice day on Wednesday. With dryness continuing to be talked about both in the US plains states (esp Northern) and in Southern Brazil, traders don’t want to get caught short. Given how tight the US situation is for both old and new-crop, we simply have little margin for error. Given both beans and corn are very tight and are sporting solid fall prices, it might be tough to see one gain more than the other when it comes to an acreage battle…especially with high fertilizer prices likely causing some producers to pause on additional corn plantings. Outside markets should have had a positive influence on Wednesday. May crude oil had a big day, closing up $2.97 on the day at $63.15. The DOW closed up 54 points at 33,624. The Dollar settled .209 lower at 91.635.
Corn – The corn market was in rally mode at mid-week, closing towards the upper end of the range especially on the front-months as bull-spreading returned. May corn closed up 14 cents at $5.94. This was 3 ¾ cents off the high and 15 ¼ off the low of the day…Wednesday’s close was also 34 cents above the close from just one week ago. The EIA report from the Department of Energy showed corn usage in the making of ethanol off a bit. We burned through just over 95 million bushels, which is about 3.5 mb below last week’s total. Stocks were again down from a week ago and a year ago. There’s no doubt people continue to drive more every week, which is certainly good for usage. Given what we’ve seen so far and solid margins yet, I’d about bet money the USDA will eventually have to raise corn usage for ethanol more yet. Dryness in Southern Brazil has been something I’ve talked quite a bit about of late…until we see a reversal in their trend of warm and dry, it’s going to be supportive for corn. The world needs a big Safrinha crop. I’m still supportive corn but highly encourage producers to manage some risk as we rally. I’d like to be at a third sold for new-crop given how robust profit margins are.
Soybeans – Soybeans had a solid day, especially on the front-months as well. May beans ended the day up 20 ½ cents at $14.10. The close was 6 ¼ cents off the high and 20 ¾ off the low of the day. With this bean market rather boring of late, we’re finally seeing some buying come back in
. Weather is the issue in beans similar to corn. With dryness plaguing the plains states, plenty of talk of a warmer/drier bias unfolding this
summer continues to be the case. Again, traders seem fearful of getting caught on the wrong side of the market. Whether talking old or new beans, significant rally action is possible IF we see weather issues in the US this summer. As with corn, I like getting some bean sales on the books or floors put in place. Given profit margins, I can’t snub my nose at these price levels. For my farm, I’ve been trying to quantify some worst-case scenarios while leaving some upside open as discussed in the weekly newsletter. Get ahold of us if you want to chat or ask a question…We are here to help.
If you want more information on the markets, be sure to visit my team’s website at https://agmarket.net/
Matt Bennett
217-254-2713 – Work
@chief321 – Twitter
mbennett@agmarket.net – E-mail
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