ADMIS AM Comments

Weekly Video Post Acreage and Pre Supply Demand

Good debate on strategy everyone!



Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 1 cent, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans down 5, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 35 points.


Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 41 yuan, up 5 in Corn, up 4 in Soymeal, down 18 in Soyoil, and up 4 in Palm Oil.


Malaysian palm oil prices were unchanged at 2,391 (basis September) at midsession awaiting fresh news.


U.S. Weather Forecast


Erratic shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the Corn Belt through next Monday will lead to some pockets that receive enough rainfall for favorable crop development and some pockets that get missed with increasing crop stress.


Michigan and Ohio are most in need of rain due to having the driest topsoil; rain will be more substantial in the southwestern Corn Belt from eastern Nebraska through southwestern Iowa, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri due to a few organized complexes of thunderstorms


Temperatures will be warm enough to promote net drying in many areas.


Last night’s GFS model run was notably aggressive with rainfall in southern Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin, South Dakota, and Montana July 14 – 16; the position of the ridge of high pressure will favor rain in these areas.


The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; net bought 13,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 40,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 173,000 Corn; net long 83,000 Soybeans; net short 44,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 5,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 4,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,500; Corn down 12,400; Soybeans up 11,400 contracts; Soymeal down 3,700 lots, and; Soyoil down 210


Deliveries were 2 Soymeal; 21 Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 18 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 31 SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.


There were changes in registrations (Rice down 29; HRS Wheat up 36)—Registrations total 162 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,141 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 16; HRW Wheat 97, and; HRS 1,379.





Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—



POLL-U.S. corn seen rated 72% good-excellent, soybeans 70% – Reuters News


Category Analyst average Analyst range USDA last week
Corn condition* 72 70-74 73
Soybean condition* 70 68-72 71
Winter wheat harvested 56 52-61 41
Winter wheat condition* 52 51-53 52
Spring wheat condition* 70 67-74 69
*Percent good/excellent


U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 56% (trade estimate was 56%) versus 41% last week, 42% a year ago, 55% average.


U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 51% good to excellent (trade estimate was 52%) versus 52% a week ago and 64% a year ago; 32% fair (32% last week, 26% a year ago); 17% poor to very poor (16% last week, 10% a year ago).


U.S. Spring Wheat headed was 63% versus 36% last week, 47% a year ago, 68% average.


Spring Wheat was rated 70% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 69% last week, and 78% a year ago 24% fair (25% a week ago, 19% a year ago), and; 6% poor to very poor (6% last week, 3% a year ago).


U.S. Corn silking was 10% versus 4% a week ago, 7% last year, and 16% average.


Corn was rated 71% good to excellent (trade estimate was 72%) versus 73% last week, and 57% a year ago; 23% fair (22% last week, 31% last year), 6% poor to very poor (5% last week, 12% last year).


Oats were rated 62% good to excellent versus 61% last week and 65% a year ago; 28% fair (29% last week, 28% a year ago), and; 10% poor to very poor (10% last week, 7 a year ago).


U.S. Soybeans setting pods was 2% versus NA% a week ago, 1% last year, and 4% average.


U.S. Soybeans were rated 71% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 71% a week ago, and 53% a year ago; 24% fair (24% last week, 35% a year ago), and; 5% poor to very poor (5% last week, 12% a year ago).


Temperatures were warm and rainfall was mostly spotty last week, but none of the U.S. Crop Watch growers reduced condition scores for their corn and soybean fields; the producers are largely pleased with how their crops look at present, though many are concerned with the hot and somewhat dry weather outlook over the next several days; most of the Crop Watch corn will be pollinating within the next two weeks, and unfavorable conditions during this critical reproductive process can have negative impacts on yield potential.



The North Dakota grower increased soybean condition to 2.5 from 2 in the previous week after plentiful rains fell throughout the week. Corn condition stays at 3. Up to 5 inches (127 mm) of rain fell over the past few days but totals closer to 3 inches (76 mm) were most common. That moisture was desperately needed, but the producer now hopes for a drier stretch over the next week or so.

The reader is reminded that only 9% of the corn field and 30% of the soybean field could be planted, and that will be a consideration when evaluating yield potential. The corn will likely pollinate at the end of the month.



Corn condition remains at 4.75, though the soybean rating is moved up by a quarter-point to 4.75. The soybeans grew a lot over the past week and the plants have many flowers, which is the first step in the reproductive stage. The corn is likely to begin pollinating in about a week, and the producer is hoping for a rain by then. Topsoil has dried out and the crops will need a drink by the end of the week.



The Nebraska producer increased both condition scores by a quarter-point each, bringing corn to 4.5 and soybeans to 4.25. The crops received a little over a half-inch (13 mm) of rain about a week ago, and the rain situation will become critical again by the weekend, especially with above-normal temperatures over the next few days. The corn will begin pollination in about a week.



Condition scores in Kansas remain at 3.5, but this week’s weather may offer headwinds to those numbers. The corn has just started pollination and temperatures will approach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) over the next several days with sparse rain chances. The area received a half-inch (13 mm) of rain last week. The producer completed his winter wheat harvest late on Sunday, and the yields came in up to 5% larger than expected.



Conditions remain at 5 for both Iowa fields. The fields received spotty showers last week and the same is expected for this week. If rain is missed, conditions may drop because of the warm temperatures. The corn is likely to start pollination later this week, and it may avoid a decline in ratings if 1 inch (25 mm) of rain and nighttime temperatures below 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 degrees Celsius) are observed.



Conditions remain at 5 for both fields, which were bolstered by a good shot of rain during the last weekend in June. Tassels began popping out of the corn this weekend, and the plants will likely begin pollination at the end of this week. There is a chance of rain early in the week, but conditions could decline if no rain falls, especially given the warmer temperatures in the forecast.



The Indiana producer keeps corn condition at 4.25 and soybean condition at 3.5, noting the area has plenty of moisture for now. The corn will likely be pollinating next week, and if rain is missed over the next several days, the moisture cushion will quickly shrink with warmer temperatures in the forecast for the next few days.



Corn and soybean conditions in Ohio remain at 4 this week, even though the fields have not received rain since June 23. The corn is likely to pollinate during the third full week of July, so there is still time for moisture replenishment before the critical yield stages. However, the producer does not want to spend any more money on the crop, such as for fungicide or late-season nitrogen, until it rains again and conditions are stable.



Trade estimates for USDA grain export inspections – Reuters News


Range Previous week
Wheat 450,000-650,000 515,359
Corn 1,050,000-1,350,000 1,234,690
Soybeans 250,000-450,000 324,512



U.S. weekly grain/soybean export inspections – USDA – Reuters News


WEEK ENDED:    07/02/2020    06/25/2020    06/25/2020    07/04/2019

Prelim.       Revised      Previous

–  Wheat          326,448       515,359       515,359       628,053

–  Oats               100             0             0             0

–  Barley               0             0             0           734

–  Corn           962,445     1,241,038     1,234,690       721,419

–  Sorghum         51,217       159,440       158,657        70,143

–  Soybeans       521,638       333,662       324,512       761,845




Current Year      Last Year

–      Wheat      2,327,401      2,612,142

–       Oats            400            299

–     Barley            367          1,787

–       Corn     34,208,812     42,481,209

–    Sorghum      4,060,508      1,708,572

–   Soybeans     37,338,882     37,863,951



Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had


—Wheat exports running 11% behind a year ago (unchanged last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year


—Corn 19% behind a year ago (20% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season


—Soybeans are down 1% on the year (down 1% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year



POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July U.S. wheat production – Reuters News


All Winter Hard red Soft red White Other Durum
wheat wheat winter winter winter spring wheat
Average trade estimate 1.848 1.247 0.732 0.290 0.225 0.546 0.058
Highest trade estimate 1.885 1.285 0.760 0.298 0.227 0.562 0.065
Lowest trade estimate 1.816 1.223 0.710 0.269 0.224 0.529 0.052
USDA June 1.877 1.266 0.743 0.297 0.225 NA NA



POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July U.S. corn, soy production – Reuters News


Corn Soy
Production Yield Production Yield
Average trade estimate 15.041 178.640 4.150 49.965
Highest trade estimate 15.296 180.5 4.382 52.8
Lowest trade estimate 14.952 178.0 4.123 48.8
USDA June 15.995 178.5 4.125 49.8



POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July U.S. grain end-stocks – Reuters News


2019/20 2020/21
Corn Soy Wheat Corn Soy
Average trade estimate 2.277 0.584 0.948 2.683 0.416
Highest trade estimate 2.403 0.635 1.006 3.010 0.572
Lowest trade estimate 2.166 0.560 0.825 2.400 0.355
USDA June 2.103 0.585 0.925 3.323 0.395



POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July world crop end-stocks – Reuters News


2019/20 2020/21
Wheat Corn Soy Wheat Corn Soy
Average trade estimate 297.30 315.07 99.35 315.89 324.84 96.71
Highest trade estimate 298.50 320.50 101.00 318.50 339.00 99.40
Lowest trade estimate 296.00 311.77 98.00 311.83 310.00 94.70
USDA June 295.84 312.91 99.19 316.09 337.87 96.34



Speculators were forced to exit massive short positions in Chicago-traded corn last week as the U.S. government’s June acreage survey turned up a much smaller planted corn area than the market expected; that revelation coincided with a relatively hot and dry weather forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt in the early part of July, sending most-active CBOT corn futures last week to their highest levels since mid-March, right as the coronavirus pandemic was arriving.








TABLE-U.S. May beef, pork and broiler trade data — U.S. govt. – Reuters News



Beef and veal exports (1,000 lbs):

May’19    Apr’20    May’20

Japan                   77,637    88,020    57,230

South  Korea            63,058    51,557    49,358

Mexico                  37,600    14,390     8,257

Canada                  25,748    28,965    21,207

Hong  Kong              18,004    14,919    21,595

Total                  272,707   235,187   188,488



Pork exports (1,000 lbs)

May’19    Apr’20    May’20

Mexico               108,743    98,876    84,973

Japan                111,519   121,939    84,298

Canada                42,866    36,050    38,943

China  (Mainland)     56,690   230,500   253,261

Total                511,301   641,265   617,809



Broiler (chicken) exports (1,000 lbs)

May’19    Apr’20    May’20

Mexico                     136,558   122,290    98,869

Canada                      24,783    22,461    24,244

China  (Taiwan)             41,989    53,085    56,391

Angola                      34,285    24,149    22,485

Hong  Kong                  18,332    11,245     7,932

Cuba                        59,985    36,450    46,919

Total                      620,527   584,653   592,341



The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and over 40 trade associations on Monday urged top U.S. and Chinese officials to redouble efforts to implement a Phase 1 trade agreement signed by the world’s two largest economies in January despite pandemic-related strains; in a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the group said they were encouraged by the progress so far, but called for a significant increase in China’s purchases of U.S. goods and services.


Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Beijing:

China’s 2020/21 feed and residual use for all coarse grains and feed-quality wheat are forecast to increase about 5% compared to the previous marketing year due to a projected recovery of swine production and strong expansion in the poultry and ruminant sectors.


Corn production in 2020/21 is forecast down 4% from 2019/20 due to the impact of Fall Armyworm and reduced planted area. A regional corn shortage in the Northeast, increased feed demand, and insufficient corn imports have pushed up corn prices. In response, the government started liquidating the temporary corn reserve in May. China may rely on corn imports and stockpiled rice and wheat to meet feed demand in the coming marketing year.


Wheat production in 2020/21 is forecast down by 1 million tons compared to the previous report due to adverse weather before harvest, while consumption is adjusted higher by 2 million tons based on higher feed-quality wheat consumption.


Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Beijing:


China’s swine sector recovery and poultry production growth are expected to push up soybean meal use for feed during the coming marketing year.


Soybean imports are forecast at 91 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 20/21 and estimated at 90 MMT in MY19/20; domestic soybean production is forecast to reach 18 MMT in MY20/21 in response to a stable subsidy rate and higher soybean prices during the sowing months in 2020.


Good weather conditions ensured a moderate gain of rapeseed production in MY20/21.


Increased soybean crushing will constrain vegetable oil imports in MY20/21.


Pork prices in China rose last week as bullish sentiment motivated pig farms to reduce the supply of hogs, official data showed Tuesday; from June 29 to July 3, the average pork price index in 16 provincial-level regions tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 47.37 yuan (about 6.74 U.S. dollars) per kg, up 3 percent week on week.


According to preliminary data, Russia decreased grain exports to 41.05 million tons year-on-year from 42.23 million tons for the past agricultural year of July 2019-June 2020, as follows from monitoring of the JSC Rusagrotrans market analytics center; exports, including wheat, totaled 32.96 million tons against 34.62 million tons for the previous agricultural year; corn totaled 3.85 million tons against 2.67 million tons the previous year.


Russian export and domestic wheat prices fell last week under pressure from the new crop and initial slack demand from exporters, analysts said; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports was at $197.5 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $3 from the previous week, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said; another consultancy, IKAR, pegged wheat for supply in August at $197 a ton.


Russian exports of wheat increased to 11.5 million tonnes in the first five months of 2020 from 9.5 million tonnes a year ago, official customs data showed.



Jan-May 2020                  Jan-May 2019

Thousand tonnes     $ mln     Thousand tonnes     $ mln

WHEAT                   11,500.5   2,477.9             9,530.6   2,122.7

VEGOIL                   1,822.8   1,277.6             1,305.0     913.1


Agriculture consultancy ProAgro has cut its forecast for Ukraine’s 2020 wheat harvest to 26.07 million tons from 26.65 million a month ago due to poor weather, representing a near 8% fall year-on-year; significant heat in the south, east and partly in the center of the country had an extremely negative effect


But the consultancy said this weather was favorable for late grains, and raised its corn harvest outlook to 38.49 million tons from 37.58 million tons


Ukraine’s grain exports rose to a record 56.5 million tons in the 2019/20 season which ended on June 30, from 49.99 million tons in 2018/19, the economy ministry’s data showed


France’s soft wheat production is expected to fall by almost 21% this year after crops suffered from torrential autumn rain and spring drought, the French farm ministry said; in its first forecast of this year’s soft wheat crop, the ministry projected production at 31.31 million tons compared with 39.55 million in 2019; that would be 12.4% below the average of the last five years and mark the second smallest French soft wheat crop since 2004 after a disastrous 2016 harvest.


India’s palm oil imports in June fell 18% from a year ago to 562,932 tons as imports of refined palmolein plunged after New Delhi restricted overseas purchases of the grade earlier this year, a leading trade body said; the country’s imports of soyoil in June rose 49% from a year ago to 331,264 tons, while sunflower oil imports rose 66% to 268,128 tons.