Weekly Video Post Acreage and Pre Supply Demand
Good debate on strategy everyone!
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 1 cent, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans down 5, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 35 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 41 yuan, up 5 in Corn, up 4 in Soymeal, down 18 in Soyoil, and up 4 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were unchanged at 2,391 (basis September) at midsession awaiting fresh news.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Erratic shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the Corn Belt through next Monday will lead to some pockets that receive enough rainfall for favorable crop development and some pockets that get missed with increasing crop stress.
Michigan and Ohio are most in need of rain due to having the driest topsoil; rain will be more substantial in the southwestern Corn Belt from eastern Nebraska through southwestern Iowa, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri due to a few organized complexes of thunderstorms
Temperatures will be warm enough to promote net drying in many areas.
Last night’s GFS model run was notably aggressive with rainfall in southern Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin, South Dakota, and Montana July 14 – 16; the position of the ridge of high pressure will favor rain in these areas.
The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; net bought 13,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 40,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 173,000 Corn; net long 83,000 Soybeans; net short 44,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 5,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 4,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,500; Corn down 12,400; Soybeans up 11,400 contracts; Soymeal down 3,700 lots, and; Soyoil down 210
Deliveries were 2 Soymeal; 21 Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 18 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 31 SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (Rice down 29; HRS Wheat up 36)—Registrations total 162 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,141 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 16; HRW Wheat 97, and; HRS 1,379.
Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—
POLL-U.S. corn seen rated 72% good-excellent, soybeans 70% – Reuters News
|Category||Analyst average||Analyst range||USDA last week|
|Winter wheat harvested||56||52-61||41|
|Winter wheat condition*||52||51-53||52|
|Spring wheat condition*||70||67-74||69|
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 56% (trade estimate was 56%) versus 41% last week, 42% a year ago, 55% average.
U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 51% good to excellent (trade estimate was 52%) versus 52% a week ago and 64% a year ago; 32% fair (32% last week, 26% a year ago); 17% poor to very poor (16% last week, 10% a year ago).
U.S. Spring Wheat headed was 63% versus 36% last week, 47% a year ago, 68% average.
Spring Wheat was rated 70% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 69% last week, and 78% a year ago 24% fair (25% a week ago, 19% a year ago), and; 6% poor to very poor (6% last week, 3% a year ago).
U.S. Corn silking was 10% versus 4% a week ago, 7% last year, and 16% average.
Corn was rated 71% good to excellent (trade estimate was 72%) versus 73% last week, and 57% a year ago; 23% fair (22% last week, 31% last year), 6% poor to very poor (5% last week, 12% last year).
Oats were rated 62% good to excellent versus 61% last week and 65% a year ago; 28% fair (29% last week, 28% a year ago), and; 10% poor to very poor (10% last week, 7 a year ago).
U.S. Soybeans setting pods was 2% versus NA% a week ago, 1% last year, and 4% average.
U.S. Soybeans were rated 71% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 71% a week ago, and 53% a year ago; 24% fair (24% last week, 35% a year ago), and; 5% poor to very poor (5% last week, 12% a year ago).
Temperatures were warm and rainfall was mostly spotty last week, but none of the U.S. Crop Watch growers reduced condition scores for their corn and soybean fields; the producers are largely pleased with how their crops look at present, though many are concerned with the hot and somewhat dry weather outlook over the next several days; most of the Crop Watch corn will be pollinating within the next two weeks, and unfavorable conditions during this critical reproductive process can have negative impacts on yield potential.
EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
The North Dakota grower increased soybean condition to 2.5 from 2 in the previous week after plentiful rains fell throughout the week. Corn condition stays at 3. Up to 5 inches (127 mm) of rain fell over the past few days but totals closer to 3 inches (76 mm) were most common. That moisture was desperately needed, but the producer now hopes for a drier stretch over the next week or so.
The reader is reminded that only 9% of the corn field and 30% of the soybean field could be planted, and that will be a consideration when evaluating yield potential. The corn will likely pollinate at the end of the month.
Corn condition remains at 4.75, though the soybean rating is moved up by a quarter-point to 4.75. The soybeans grew a lot over the past week and the plants have many flowers, which is the first step in the reproductive stage. The corn is likely to begin pollinating in about a week, and the producer is hoping for a rain by then. Topsoil has dried out and the crops will need a drink by the end of the week.
The Nebraska producer increased both condition scores by a quarter-point each, bringing corn to 4.5 and soybeans to 4.25. The crops received a little over a half-inch (13 mm) of rain about a week ago, and the rain situation will become critical again by the weekend, especially with above-normal temperatures over the next few days. The corn will begin pollination in about a week.
Condition scores in Kansas remain at 3.5, but this week’s weather may offer headwinds to those numbers. The corn has just started pollination and temperatures will approach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) over the next several days with sparse rain chances. The area received a half-inch (13 mm) of rain last week. The producer completed his winter wheat harvest late on Sunday, and the yields came in up to 5% larger than expected.
EAST CENTRAL IOWA
Conditions remain at 5 for both Iowa fields. The fields received spotty showers last week and the same is expected for this week. If rain is missed, conditions may drop because of the warm temperatures. The corn is likely to start pollination later this week, and it may avoid a decline in ratings if 1 inch (25 mm) of rain and nighttime temperatures below 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 degrees Celsius) are observed.
Conditions remain at 5 for both fields, which were bolstered by a good shot of rain during the last weekend in June. Tassels began popping out of the corn this weekend, and the plants will likely begin pollination at the end of this week. There is a chance of rain early in the week, but conditions could decline if no rain falls, especially given the warmer temperatures in the forecast.
The Indiana producer keeps corn condition at 4.25 and soybean condition at 3.5, noting the area has plenty of moisture for now. The corn will likely be pollinating next week, and if rain is missed over the next several days, the moisture cushion will quickly shrink with warmer temperatures in the forecast for the next few days.
Corn and soybean conditions in Ohio remain at 4 this week, even though the fields have not received rain since June 23. The corn is likely to pollinate during the third full week of July, so there is still time for moisture replenishment before the critical yield stages. However, the producer does not want to spend any more money on the crop, such as for fungicide or late-season nitrogen, until it rains again and conditions are stable.
Trade estimates for USDA grain export inspections – Reuters News
U.S. weekly grain/soybean export inspections – USDA – Reuters News
WEEK ENDED: 07/02/2020 06/25/2020 06/25/2020 07/04/2019
Prelim. Revised Previous
– Wheat 326,448 515,359 515,359 628,053
– Oats 100 0 0 0
– Barley 0 0 0 734
– Corn 962,445 1,241,038 1,234,690 721,419
– Sorghum 51,217 159,440 158,657 70,143
– Soybeans 521,638 333,662 324,512 761,845
MARKETING YEAR-TO-DATE INSPECTIONS
Current Year Last Year
– Wheat 2,327,401 2,612,142
– Oats 400 299
– Barley 367 1,787
– Corn 34,208,812 42,481,209
– Sorghum 4,060,508 1,708,572
– Soybeans 37,338,882 37,863,951
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running 11% behind a year ago (unchanged last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year
—Corn 19% behind a year ago (20% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season
—Soybeans are down 1% on the year (down 1% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July U.S. wheat production – Reuters News
|All||Winter||Hard red||Soft red||White||Other||Durum|
|Average trade estimate||1.848||1.247||0.732||0.290||0.225||0.546||0.058|
|Highest trade estimate||1.885||1.285||0.760||0.298||0.227||0.562||0.065|
|Lowest trade estimate||1.816||1.223||0.710||0.269||0.224||0.529||0.052|
POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July U.S. corn, soy production – Reuters News
|Average trade estimate||15.041||178.640||4.150||49.965|
|Highest trade estimate||15.296||180.5||4.382||52.8|
|Lowest trade estimate||14.952||178.0||4.123||48.8|
POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July U.S. grain end-stocks – Reuters News
|Average trade estimate||2.277||0.584||0.948||2.683||0.416|
|Highest trade estimate||2.403||0.635||1.006||3.010||0.572|
|Lowest trade estimate||2.166||0.560||0.825||2.400||0.355|
POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July world crop end-stocks – Reuters News
|Average trade estimate||297.30||315.07||99.35||315.89||324.84||96.71|
|Highest trade estimate||298.50||320.50||101.00||318.50||339.00||99.40|
|Lowest trade estimate||296.00||311.77||98.00||311.83||310.00||94.70|
Speculators were forced to exit massive short positions in Chicago-traded corn last week as the U.S. government’s June acreage survey turned up a much smaller planted corn area than the market expected; that revelation coincided with a relatively hot and dry weather forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt in the early part of July, sending most-active CBOT corn futures last week to their highest levels since mid-March, right as the coronavirus pandemic was arriving.
TABLE-U.S. May beef, pork and broiler trade data — U.S. govt. – Reuters News
Beef and veal exports (1,000 lbs):
May’19 Apr’20 May’20
Japan 77,637 88,020 57,230
South Korea 63,058 51,557 49,358
Mexico 37,600 14,390 8,257
Canada 25,748 28,965 21,207
Hong Kong 18,004 14,919 21,595
Total 272,707 235,187 188,488
Pork exports (1,000 lbs)
May’19 Apr’20 May’20
Mexico 108,743 98,876 84,973
Japan 111,519 121,939 84,298
Canada 42,866 36,050 38,943
China (Mainland) 56,690 230,500 253,261
Total 511,301 641,265 617,809
Broiler (chicken) exports (1,000 lbs)
May’19 Apr’20 May’20
Mexico 136,558 122,290 98,869
Canada 24,783 22,461 24,244
China (Taiwan) 41,989 53,085 56,391
Angola 34,285 24,149 22,485
Hong Kong 18,332 11,245 7,932
Cuba 59,985 36,450 46,919
Total 620,527 584,653 592,341
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and over 40 trade associations on Monday urged top U.S. and Chinese officials to redouble efforts to implement a Phase 1 trade agreement signed by the world’s two largest economies in January despite pandemic-related strains; in a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the group said they were encouraged by the progress so far, but called for a significant increase in China’s purchases of U.S. goods and services.
Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Beijing:
China’s 2020/21 feed and residual use for all coarse grains and feed-quality wheat are forecast to increase about 5% compared to the previous marketing year due to a projected recovery of swine production and strong expansion in the poultry and ruminant sectors.
Corn production in 2020/21 is forecast down 4% from 2019/20 due to the impact of Fall Armyworm and reduced planted area. A regional corn shortage in the Northeast, increased feed demand, and insufficient corn imports have pushed up corn prices. In response, the government started liquidating the temporary corn reserve in May. China may rely on corn imports and stockpiled rice and wheat to meet feed demand in the coming marketing year.
Wheat production in 2020/21 is forecast down by 1 million tons compared to the previous report due to adverse weather before harvest, while consumption is adjusted higher by 2 million tons based on higher feed-quality wheat consumption.
Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Beijing:
China’s swine sector recovery and poultry production growth are expected to push up soybean meal use for feed during the coming marketing year.
Soybean imports are forecast at 91 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 20/21 and estimated at 90 MMT in MY19/20; domestic soybean production is forecast to reach 18 MMT in MY20/21 in response to a stable subsidy rate and higher soybean prices during the sowing months in 2020.
Good weather conditions ensured a moderate gain of rapeseed production in MY20/21.
Increased soybean crushing will constrain vegetable oil imports in MY20/21.
Pork prices in China rose last week as bullish sentiment motivated pig farms to reduce the supply of hogs, official data showed Tuesday; from June 29 to July 3, the average pork price index in 16 provincial-level regions tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 47.37 yuan (about 6.74 U.S. dollars) per kg, up 3 percent week on week.
According to preliminary data, Russia decreased grain exports to 41.05 million tons year-on-year from 42.23 million tons for the past agricultural year of July 2019-June 2020, as follows from monitoring of the JSC Rusagrotrans market analytics center; exports, including wheat, totaled 32.96 million tons against 34.62 million tons for the previous agricultural year; corn totaled 3.85 million tons against 2.67 million tons the previous year.
Russian export and domestic wheat prices fell last week under pressure from the new crop and initial slack demand from exporters, analysts said; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports was at $197.5 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $3 from the previous week, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said; another consultancy, IKAR, pegged wheat for supply in August at $197 a ton.
Russian exports of wheat increased to 11.5 million tonnes in the first five months of 2020 from 9.5 million tonnes a year ago, official customs data showed.
RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE EXPORTS
Jan-May 2020 Jan-May 2019
Thousand tonnes $ mln Thousand tonnes $ mln
WHEAT 11,500.5 2,477.9 9,530.6 2,122.7
VEGOIL 1,822.8 1,277.6 1,305.0 913.1
Agriculture consultancy ProAgro has cut its forecast for Ukraine’s 2020 wheat harvest to 26.07 million tons from 26.65 million a month ago due to poor weather, representing a near 8% fall year-on-year; significant heat in the south, east and partly in the center of the country had an extremely negative effect
But the consultancy said this weather was favorable for late grains, and raised its corn harvest outlook to 38.49 million tons from 37.58 million tons
Ukraine’s grain exports rose to a record 56.5 million tons in the 2019/20 season which ended on June 30, from 49.99 million tons in 2018/19, the economy ministry’s data showed
France’s soft wheat production is expected to fall by almost 21% this year after crops suffered from torrential autumn rain and spring drought, the French farm ministry said; in its first forecast of this year’s soft wheat crop, the ministry projected production at 31.31 million tons compared with 39.55 million in 2019; that would be 12.4% below the average of the last five years and mark the second smallest French soft wheat crop since 2004 after a disastrous 2016 harvest.
India’s palm oil imports in June fell 18% from a year ago to 562,932 tons as imports of refined palmolein plunged after New Delhi restricted overseas purchases of the grade earlier this year, a leading trade body said; the country’s imports of soyoil in June rose 49% from a year ago to 331,264 tons, while sunflower oil imports rose 66% to 268,128 tons.