Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 4; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is up 4 cents; Soybeans up 11, Soymeal up $3.00, and Soyoil up 45 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 15 cents; HRW up 5; HRS unchanged; Corn was up 28 cents; Soybeans up 35; Soymeal up $14.00, and; Soyoil up 65 points. Crushing margins were up 2 cents at 88; Oil share unchanged at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 63 yuan, up 5 in Corn, up 20 in Soymeal, up 50 in Soyoil, and up 16 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 37 ringgit at 2,395 (basis September) at midsession on estimates of lower June stockpiles.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6-10 day forecast for the Midwest sees below average rainfall to occur in the region; any rains that do occur look to be light or isolated and favor more of the northern sections of the Midwest.
The 11-16 day forecast for the Midwest has a bit of a difference in the models with the European seeing ridging to continue while, the GFS has the ridge moving back west bringing some rainfall to the region.
Temps will run above average for the next 10 days across the Midwest.
The 6-10 day forecast for the Southern Plains sees mainly dry weather; temps will run near average for most of the week ahead, with above average readings for the weekend and first half of next week.
The 6-10 day forecast for the Delta sees light rains with coverage of around 65% for the period as a whole.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,000; Corn down 23,500; Soybeans down 1,700 contracts; Soymeal down 5,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 785
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; 217 Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 49 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 133 SRW Wheat, and; 43 HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (HRS Wheat up 855)—Registrations total 162 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,141 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 45; HRW Wheat 97, and; HRS 1,343.
TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS/CONDITIONS—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS
Tender Activity—Syria seeks 200,000t optional-origin wheat—Egypt seeks 30,000t optional-origin soyoil, 10,000t sunoil—
‘Oil World’
Weather Developments Are Becoming A Major Price-Determining Factor in July and August
In the USA lower than expected plantings are reducing production prospects
Chinese soybean imports seen rising to a record in June/Aug and to 96.5 Mn T this season
At the moment China avails of huge soybean stocks; but in Sept/Dec 2020 the USA is likely to boost soybean exports to China, benefiting from the supply tightness in Brazil
The sunflowerseed success story in Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue in 2020/21; the weather is a swing factor to watch.
Combined US grain and oilseed plantings are below the March intentions because US farmers are declaring a larger than usual area under the ‘prevented planting’ program.
Higher than expected Argentine exports of soybeans, soya oil and meal in June
| Trade estimates for 2019-20 | Trade estimates for 2020-21 | |
| Wheat | N/A | 250,000-600,000 |
| Corn | 450,000-700,000 | 0-200,000 |
| Soybeans | 300,000-800,000 | 300,000-800,000 |
| Soymeal | 75,000-250,000 | 0-50,000 |
| Soyoil | 5,000-25,000 | 0-5,000 |
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Bushel Conversions-Jul 2
For the week ended Jun 25, in million bushels. Export shipments do not include those for own account. (a)-Data from the June 2020. WASDE Supply-Demand report. Source: USDA.
–sales summary–
week’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 15.2 2.8 267.0 264.6 198.0 2.8
hrw 6.7 0.0 101.8 106.4 71.0 0.0
srw -1.2 2.8 22.5 37.3 18.8 2.8
hrs 4.5 0.0 76.6 65.1 59.6 0.0
white 5.2 0.0 54.7 47.4 40.4 0.0
durum 0.1 0.0 11.4 8.4 8.3 0.0
corn 14.2 10.3 1665.8 1925.7 331.9 153.3
soybeans 8.9 30.9 1655.0 1778.4 284.6 254.9
sorghum 5.7 2.7 163.6 61.2 33.2 18.0
barley 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.4 1.9 0.0
–export summary–
USDA Proj USDA(a)
Export shipments Accum shipments shipments Shipments
this wk last wk this yr last yr this yr 18-19 19-20
wheat 18.7 26.1 69.0 71.4 950 936 965
hrw 8.7 11.5 30.8 39.4 NA 331 370
srw 2.1 0.9 3.7 5.9 NA 128 93
hrs 5.3 7.0 17.1 14.2 NA 259 271
white 2.6 5.3 14.3 10.0 NA 196 189
durum 0.0 1.3 3.1 2.0 NA 22 42
corn 56.7 51.7 1333.9 1688.5 1775 2065 1775
soybeans 14.3 11.1 1370.4 1388.2 1650 1748 1650
sorghum 5.2 4.3 130.4 51.5 210 93 210
barley 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5 5 6
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jul 2
For the week ended Jun 25, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 414.3 75.0 7266.3 7202.7 5388.7 75.0
hrw 181.0 0.0 2771.5 2896.5 1932.9 0.0
srw -32.6 75.0 611.3 1014.5 510.8 75.0
hrs 122.7 0.0 2085.3 1772.5 1621.1 0.0
white 141.7 0.0 1488.1 1290.7 1098.8 0.0
durum 1.5 0.0 310.0 228.4 225.0 0.0
corn 361.1 262.7 42313.5 48915.6 8430.9 3892.9
soybeans 241.7 841.7 45042.6 48400.1 7745.1 6936.8
soymeal 143.0 13.0 11063.2 11273.4 2092.9 368.9
soyoil 2.8 0.0 1189.3 805.0 212.9 11.0
upland cotton 67.3 246.2 16992.9 15262.6 4441.8 3490.1
pima cotton 4.7 0.0 574.4 728.2 126.0 33.0
sorghum 144.4 68.0 4156.5 1554.7 843.4 456.0
barley 1.0 0.0 41.6 51.3 40.3 0.0
rice 24.9 0.0 3311.3 3370.6 336.4 62.7
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Shipment Totals-Jul 2
For the week ended Jun 25, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Export shipments do not include those for own account.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
USDA Proj
Export shipments Accum shipments shipments
this wk last wk this yr last yr this yr
wheat 508.6 710.1 1877.6 1944.0 25860
hrw 236.0 314.1 838.6 1071.1 NA
srw 57.3 25.7 100.5 161.2 NA
hrs 145.0 189.2 464.2 385.3 NA
white 70.4 144.5 389.3 271.9 NA
durum 0.0 36.5 85.0 54.5 NA
corn 1439.9 1313.0 33882.6 42889.7 45090
soybeans 389.0 302.4 37297.5 37780.0 44910
soymeal 192.4 297.2 8970.3 8904.2 12200
soyoil 23.7 52.2 976.4 634.3 1230
upland cotton 277.0 316.1 12551.1 11633.2 13980
pima cotton 4.4 9.6 448.4 605.9 580
sorghum 131.3 110.0 3313.1 1309.1 5330
barley 0.8 0.0 1.3 2.8 110
rice 52.5 60.7 2974.9 2809.0 3050
For the week ended June 25th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 1% ahead of a year ago, shipments down 3% with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year
—By class, HRW wheat sales are down 4%, shipments 22% behind
—SRW sales 40% behind, shipments 37% behind
—HRS sales 18% ahead, shipments up 20%
For the week ended June 25th, U.S. Corn sales are running 13% behind a year ago, shipments 21% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline.
For the week ended June 25th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 7% behind a year ago, shipments down 1% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
—Soymeal sales 2% behind on the year, shipments up 1% with a 1% decrease forecasted
—Soyoil sales 48% ahead of a year ago, shipments 54% ahead with a 39% increase forecasted
U.S. May Grain Exports
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
May 20 Apr 20 Mar 20 May 19
Barley 100,497 71,201 91,167 191,798
Corn /1 224,401,352 199,101,165 181,718,564 184,630,486
Sorghum 31,864,501 31,601,720 19,583,895 10,641,762
Oats 169,718 187,781 207,642 133,848
Wheat /1 86,265,276 87,293,128 67,120,188 102,922,098
wheat flour /1 505,682 560,446 549,098 480,645
U.S. May Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
May 20 Apr 20 Mar 20 May 19(*)
soybeans 72,257,103 79,507,956 94,486,213 94,078,987
soyoil 357,821,585 230,244,512 320,789,263 205,734,111
crude 322,498,425 193,335,033 287,410,078 177,052,804
refined 2,234,599 8,080,054 626,073 180,054
other/1 32,391,377 28,278,882 31,741,745 27,677,926
hydrogenated 697,183 550,543 1,011,366 823,327
soymeal 817,037 949,380 1,065,741 903,258
soymeal flour/me 259,595 252,325 260,272 204,202
soymeal hulls 18,432 15,770 5,839 13,521
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has put on hold indefinitely a proposal for the amount of biofuels refiners must blend into their fuel next year; many anticipated the proposal would come out in late June or early July; the EPA was expected to lift biofuel blending obligations in 2021 to 20.17 billion gallons, from 20.09 billion this year; the EPA had no comment.
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) enters into force, replacing the decades-old NAFTA; USMCA is a better deal for America’s farmers, consumers and workers that will set them up for success for decades to come; U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue penned an oped in the North Carolina Fayetteville Observer saying, “USMCA creates more market access for farmers from across our nation to sell their wholesome and nutritious products to our closest neighbors; this is a better deal for America that will grow our economy and put more money in the pockets of American families.”
Alberta crop report
Temperatures across Alberta have been normal to moderately warm relative to long term, while precipitation has been quite persistent again this past week; overall, crop conditions are 80 per cent good to excellent and above average in the South, Central and North East regions, on par in the Peace, while the North West is definitely lagging compared to the historical normal; the Central region is currently reporting more than 30 per cent above the five-year average, South just under 20 per cent above, North East over 10 per cent above and Peace nearing five per cent above the five-year average; north west region conditions are estimated at over 15 per cent behind the five-year average resulting from the excessive moisture conditions prevalent since last fall.
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, a major agricultural base in north China, has finished the spring plowing work, with more grain seeds sown than the target set by the central government; the total sown area in the region this spring reached 9.09 million hectares, including 7.28 million hectares of grains, up 1.7 percent and 2.4 percent respectively compared with the previous year; the sown area of grains exceeded the 6.83-million-hectare target set by the central government
China’s thirsty beer markets are fueling a surge in Canadian barley shipments amid the Asian nation’s feud with Australia; Canadian shipments of barley to China rose in May as the Asian nation slapped anti-dumping duties on the grain from Australia, its top supplier; Canada exported 175,500 tons of barley to China in May, up 38 per cent from a year earlier; the number of acres allocated to barley in Canada is set to rise to the highest in more than a decade in 2020 and any additional output could be absorbed by demand from China’s beer and livestock industries
- BRAZIL SOYBEAN FARMERS SELL 92.9% OF 2019/2020 PROJECTED CROP VS 71.1% LAST SEASON AND 74.8% HISTORICAL AVERAGE, SAYS SAFRAS & MERCADO
- BRAZIL SOYBEAN FARMERS SELL 39.8% OF 2020/2021 PROJECTED CROP VS 35.6% ESTIMATED IN EARLY JUNE, SAYS CONSULTANCY
The port of Paranaguá, Brazil’s second busiest for shipping commodities like soybeans and sugar, has resumed activities normally with most berths operational after strong winds caused disruptions earlier in the week.
Argentina’s 2020/21 wheat sowing estimate is 6.5 million hectares, the Buenos Aires Grains exchange said in its weekly crop report, citing dry weather as its reason for cutting its previous 6.7 million hectare forecast; the lack of rainfall and ground moisture deficit affecting a large part of the western farm belt has expanded towards the center-east, adding that 79.1% of this year’s wheat crop has been sown so far.
During the current agricultural year (July 1, 2020 – June 30, 2021), grain exports from Russia will amount to 45 mln tons, including 35 mln tons of wheat, said Russian Minister of Agriculture
Russian wheat exports will fall in July after a slow start to the harvest but will rise in later months when there will not be export quotas, IKAR and SovEcon agriculture consultancies said; the world’s largest wheat exporter, which competes with the European Union, Ukraine and others to supply Africa and the Middle East, began harvesting wheat late this year; yields have been lower so far but are expected to climb; Russia’s July wheat exports were expected to be 2 million tons, about 1 million tons lower than the same month a year ago
Russia plans to make its grain export quota mechanism, used in April-June amid the coronavirus outbreak, permanent, TASS news agency reported; said that its grain exports will not be subjected to any quotas from July to December, but quotas are possible from January to June next year in order to ensure that the domestic market is adequately supplied
Ukraine became the largest supplier of grain to the Kingdom of Thailand and exported products worth more than $140 million in 2019
The European Union has reduced its import duty for maize (corn) to zero from 4.65 euros ($5.22) per ton previously; the zero tariff, effective as of Friday, will also apply to rye and sorghum imports; the EU had re-introduced an import duty on April 27 after a slump in U.S. prices to a 10-year low, which meant import prices fell below the EU’s regulatory floor price
Unfavorable growing conditions are putting the EU and Britain on course for a 10% drop in wheat output this year, with weather swings creating more uncertainty as harvests start; the 27-country European Union and Britain, which left the bloc in January, are expected to harvest 131.3 million tons of common wheat – or soft wheat – in 2020; that would bring output closer to a drought-hit crop of 128.3 million in 2018 than last year’s 147 million
- EU 2019/20 SOFT WHEAT EXPORTS 33.43 MLN T BY JUNE 28 VS YEAR-EARLIER 20.54 MLN T
- EU 2019/20 BARLEY EXPORTS 7.14 MLN T BY JUNE 28 VS YEAR-EARLIER 4.36 MLN
- EU 2019/20 MAIZE IMPORTS 19.46 MLN T BY JUNE 28 VS YEAR-EARLIER 23.64 MLN T
- EU 2019/20 SOYBEAN IMPORTS 15.21 MLN T BY JUNE 28 VS YEAR-EARLIER 14.96 MLN T
- EU 2019/20 SOYMEAL IMPORTS 17.86 MLN T BY JUNE 28 VS YEAR-EARLIER 17.58 MLN T
- EU 2019/20 RAPESEED IMPORTS 5.84 MLN T BY JUNE 28 VS YEAR-EARLIER 4.17 MLN T
- EU 2019/20 PALM OIL IMPORTS 5.66 MLN T BY JUNE 28 VS YEAR-EARLIER 6.42 MLN T
French soft wheat shipments outside the EU finished the season at a four-year high in June, helping overall 2019/20 exports to reach a record level; soft wheat exports to destinations outside the European Union totaled 1.17 million tons last month; that was the highest for June since 2015/16, although it was well below levels seen in previous months this season; last month’s exports took the amount of soft wheat shipped to non-EU destinations in the 2019/20 July-June season to 13.42 million tons, the highest annual volume seen going back to 2009/10.
French farmers began harvesting soft wheat and bringing in much of the winter barley crop, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed
—Farmers harvested 4% of France’s soft wheat area in the week to June 29, compared with zero in the same week last year
—Durum wheat harvesting was 18% complete against 4% the prior week and well ahead of 5% progress a year ago
—FranceAgriMer’s crop ratings showed 56% of soft wheat was in good or excellent condition last week, stable compared with the previous week but well below a year-earlier score of 75%
—For grain maize, which is harvested in late summer and autumn, the good/excellent score was unchanged on the week at 83%, above a year-earlier rating of 79%
Malaysia June-end palm oil stocks seen down 4.9% as exports hit 10-month high
- June-end stocks seen 4.9% lower at 1.94 mln T – survey
- Output estimated 8% higher at 1.78 mln T – survey
- Exports seen up 20.6% at 1.65 mln T – survey
- Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due July 10
| Range | Median | |
| Production | 1,651,328-1,849,000 | 1,783,434 |
| Exports | 1,368,619-1,729,000 | 1,650,000 |
| Imports | 28,000-80,000 | 40,000 |
| Closing stocks | 1,837,000-2,034,480 | 1,935,571 |
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