ADMIS AM Comments 102319

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By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal up $0.01; Soyoil down 0.05.


For the week so far wheat prices are down 13 in SRW, down 11 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal down $0.13; Soyoil up 0.44. (December crushing margins are up 1.75 cents around $0.805, oil-share is up 0.44% at 33.42%).


For the month to date wheat prices are up 23 1/2 in SRW, up 7 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 28 1/2; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil up 1.72. (December crushing margins up 4.50 cents at $0.805, oil-share up 0.85% at 33.42%).


Chinese Ag futures (JAN 20) Soybeans down 24 yuan ; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil up 50; Palm oil up 90; Corn down 11.


Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 6 ringgit (+0.26%) at 2323 pulling back from a 16 month high earlier in the session off news China authorized waivers for imports of US soybeans.


Consolidating grain session with the market finding good underlying support on ideas that China will soon be a significant buyer of US soybeans and pork. US corn and soybean harvest is expected to put downside pressure on corn and soybean futures. The trade awaits upcoming US harvest yield reports, US corn, soybean and wheat export sales activity, USDA’s November WASDE, Chinese buying of US ag commodities and US biofuel policy to determine if there will be a significant decline in US corn and soybean carryout to fuel further upside price action in CBOT corn and soybean futures.


House Energy and Commerce Committee schedules hearing for 10:30am on Oct. 29 to examine the Renewable Fuel Standard, a federal law mandating refiners use biofuel such as ethanol. Hearing, entitled “Protecting the RFS: The Trump Administration’s Abuse of Secret Waivers,” will focus on a bill from Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson that would set a deadline for refineries to apply for waivers from annual biofuel-blending mandates


Midwest / West: Dry conditions or just some light precipitation in the north Wednesday. Chance of rain in Missouri Thursday, dry elsewhere. Dry Friday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms later Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, variable Wednesday, below normal Thursday, variable Friday, near to above normal Saturday, variable Sunday-Monday.


Midwest / East: Dry weather Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop on Thursday ending on Friday. Dry weather Saturday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, variable Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal


Brazil will see some beneficial rain and cooler temperatures for planting and developing soybeans in Parana and the Mato Grosso Brazil.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; buyers 3,500 Corn; net buyers of 6,000 Soybeans; sellers 2,500 Soymeal, and; net buyers of 5,000 lots of Soyoil.



Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 22 were: SRW Wheat up 1,508 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,393, Corn up 9,697, Soybeans up 12,209, Soymeal up 3,701, Soyoil up 2,473.


There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 1,071 Corn; 1,144 Soybeans; 1,535 Soyoil; 764 Soymeal; 11 HRW Wheat.





Algeria’s state grains agency purchased an estimated 600,000 tonnes of optional origin milling wheat.


Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued a tender for 88,900 tonnes of grade 1 US milling wheat.


Tunisia seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin soft milling wheat.


Turkey’s state grain board has provisionally purchased about 190,000 tonnes of EU red milling wheat.


Ethiopian government delayed a tender for 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat.


Ethiopian government offered and international tender to buy about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat.


Qatar issued an international tender to buy 100,000 tonnes of barley.


Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued two international tender to buy optional origin milling wheat for 50,000 tonnes. Algeria often buys considerably more in its tenders than the nominal volume sought.


Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued international tenders to purchase around 127,500 tonnes of durum wheat from the European Union.


Egypt is seeking at least 30,000 tonnes of soyoil and 10,000 tonnes of sunflower oil. In a second tender Egypt is also looking for 3,000 tonnes of soyoil and 2,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.


Ethiopian issued a new international tender to buy about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat, bringing the country’s current purchase interest to 600,000 tonnes.


Bangladesh’s state agency has issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of 12.5% optional origin milling wheat.


Syria’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase and import 150,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from Russia.


South Korean state agency issued tenders for up to 150,000 tonnes of Non-GMO soybeans.


India’s top vegetable oil trade body called on Tuesday for the government to close a South Asian regional free-trade pact loophole it said had been used to circumvent tax by re-routing palm oil and soyoil imports through Nepal and Bangladesh.


Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad on Tuesday doubled down on his criticism of India’s decision to scrap Jammu and Kashmir’s special status despite a call by Indian traders to stop buying Malaysian palm oil.


Beijing on Tuesday offered major Chinese and international soybean processors waivers that would exempt the companies from steep tariffs on imports of up to 10 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans. The quota to import U.S. soybeans was offered to state-owned crushers, privately owned crushers and major international trading houses with crushing plants in China. Waivers are for U.S. shipments through March.


Chinese soy crushers purchased at least 3 cargoes of U.S. soybeans, equivalent to about 190,000 tons combined, after the nation’s processors were granted a new round of tariff waivers.


China’s monthly consumer inflation could hit 4% by early 2020 on the back of surging pork prices, complicating the central bank’s efforts to support the economy further, economists said.


China September Grain & Pork Imports for September


China September Imports

  • Corn: 140,000 Tons +237.2% YoY / YTD rose 33.1% y/y to 3.87m tons
  • Wheat : 160,000 tons, -44.5% YoY  / YTD fell 9.7% y/y to 2.26m tons
  • Sugar: 420,000 tons, +122.8% YoY / YTD sugar imports rose 22.3% y/y to 2.39m tons
  • Cotton: 80,000 tons, -38.5% YoY / YTD cotton imports rose 36% y/y to 1.52m tons
  • Edible Palm Oil: 450,000 tons, +32.9% YoY / YTD edible palm oil imports rose 55.2% y/y to 3.87m tons
  • Pork: 161,836 tons, +71.6% YoY / YTD pork imports rose 43.6% y/y to 1,325,701 tons
  • Beef: 152,104 tons, +52.5% YoY / YTD beef imports rose 53.4% y/y to 1,132,388 tons


Manitoba Canada’s soybean and corn crops are standing better than expected from the heavy snowfall, with the exception of the Westlake and Western Interlake areas. Overall estimated harvest progress is 77% complete, below the 3-year average of 88% for third week October.


Ukraine exported 16.4m tons of grain since July 1. Wheat export rose 47% y/y to 10.2m tons. Corn exports totaled 2.9m tons. Barley shipments were 3.1m tons.


India may consider raising support price of wheat to 1,925 rupees per 100 kilograms from 1,840 rupees currently.


India’s total soybean crop is estimated to reduce to 109.33 lakh tonne (1.09MMT) for the period between October 2018 and September 2019, according to a report on the supply and demand estimates by the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA).


Rwanda’s corn farmers could lose as much as 50% of their harvest this season due to a fresh armyworm outbreak. The country lost 5% of last year’s production to the pest.