ADMIS AM Comments 022720

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Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 3 cents, HRW down 2, HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 2 cents, Soybeans down 2, Soymeal down $1.50, and Soyoil up 20 points.


Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 29 yuan in Soybeans, down 1 in Corn, up 12 in Soymeal, down 30 in Soyoil, and down 80 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 41 ringgit at 2,460 (basis May) on bargain hunting.


The South American weather forecast for Brazil continues with decent rains in the 6 to 10 day forecast mainly north of Parana with the south dry.


The Argentine weather forecast remains mostly quiet, dry for the week ahead.


The player sheet had funds net sellers 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 9,000 Corn; bought 5,000 Soybeans; net bought 6,000 Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 38,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 116,000 Corn; net short 96,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 71,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 23,000 Soyoil.


There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 35; Soybeans 131; Soyoil 2,793 lots; Soymeal 1,714; Rice 565; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 788 contracts.






Tender Activity—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—


As the worst-hit areas of Asia continued to struggle with a viral epidemic, with hundreds more cases reported Thursday in South Korea and China, worries about infection and containment spread across the globe; for the first time, the coronavirus has caused more new cases outside China, the epicenter of the outbreak, than inside the country; with Brazil on Wednesday confirming Latin America’s first case, the virus has reached every continent but Antarctica; the United States, which has 60 cases, hasn’t been spared the fear that has swept Asia, Europe and the Mideast; President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. was “very, very ready” for whatever threat the coronavirus brings, and he put Vice President Mike Pence in charge of overseeing the country’s response.


It is no secret that most agriculture market participants have had concerns since Day 1 about the Phase 1 trade agreement between the United States and China, and top U.S. trade officials did not offer much additional clarity last week at USDA’s outlook forum; that trade deal, signed Jan. 15, implies that China in 2020 will purchase and import some 50% more U.S. agricultural products than it did in 2017, before the trade war began; this year’s purchase target is also 25% above 2013’s record.


Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News

Trade estimates for 2019-20 Trade estimates for 2020-21
Wheat 400,000-600,000 25,000-100,000
Corn 800,000-1,300,000 0
Soybeans 600,000-900,000 0
Soymeal 150,000-350,000 0
Soyoil 8,000-45,000 0


Stockpiles of US ethanol are still high, with the national inventory up to 24.72M barrels, a slight decrease from last week’s 24.78M barrels–but still a high figure for inventory; meanwhile, weekly production has inched up, rising 14,000 barrels per day to 1.054M barrels per day; market participants don’t appear to be excited by this weeks’ figures, trading more on coronavirus woes


U.S. renewable fuel prices rose 25% on Wednesday; a report stated that the Trump administration has decided to pare exemptions for oil refineries from the nation’s biofuel blending laws; in late January the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit said the Environmental Protection Agency must reconsider some exemptions it previously gave to oil refineries; the administration has decided to apply that ruling nationwide, which likely would mean fewer refineries receive exemptions going forward, according to the report; following the report, renewable fuel (D6) credits for 2019 traded at 35 cents each on Wednesday, up from 28 cents in the previous session; credits for 2020 traded at 40 cents each.


As Bayer battles tens of thousands of plaintiffs suing over the alleged cancer risk of its Roundup herbicide, lawyers representing farmers say there are thousands more likely to sue over a different herbicide called dicamba









Export registrations for soybeans out of Argentina have been suspended, according to Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture; the move is an expected prelude to raising the country’s soy export tax by 3%, making the total tax 33%; soybean futures rallied on the news, but traders think that the boost from the news will be short-lived; I’m not sure how bullish the story really is.


Cool, wet conditions are expected across Australia’s west coast and southern states over the next three months, the weather bureau said, in a forecast that could help boost wheat prospects if it materializes; Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said there is a 70% chance of above average rains between March 1 and May 30 over much of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.