Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 1; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $1.50, and Soyoil unchanged.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 20 cents; HRW down 20; HRS down 8; Corn is down 11 cents; Soybeans down 17 cents; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil down 120 points. Crushing margins are down $0.03 at $0.66 (July); Oil share down 1% at 33%.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 65 ringgit at 3,382 (basis April).
South America Weather Forecast
In Argentina, net drying will still occur in much of the region through next Thursday. There will be some increase in erratic shower and thunderstorm activity for Monday through Thursday; though, this is likely to favor the northwest.
In Brazil, conditions will still be favorable for crops in most of the nation.
SOUTH AMERICA ONE WEEK PRECIP FORECAST
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 10,000 SRW Wheat; sold 4,000 Corn; net bought 3,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 397,000 Corn; net long 162,000 Soybeans; net long 73,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 119,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,800 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,900; Corn up 16,400; Soybeans up 1,200 contracts; Soymeal up 6,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,200.
There were no changes in registrations—
Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,286 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 732; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023.
TODAY—CANADIAN STOCKS REPORT—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—
Tender Activity— Jordan issues new tender to buy 120,000 tonnes wheat—S. Korea bought 65,000t optional corn—
USDA February crop supply/demand report estimates – Reuters News
Scheduled for release at 12 p.m. EST (1700 GMT) on Tuesday, Feb. 9.
USDA 2020-21 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA Feb. | Average of | Range of | USDA Jan. | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | _______ | 0.834 | 0.807-0.864 | 0.836 |
| Corn | _______ | 1.392 | 1.108-1.515 | 1.552 |
| Soybeans | _______ | 0.123 | 0.105-0.140 | 0.140 |
USDA 2020-21 world grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA Feb. | Average of | Range of | USDA Jan. | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | ________ | 312.86 | 310.00-316.10 | 313.19 |
| Corn | ________ | 279.79 | 270.50-287.60 | 283.83 |
| Soybeans | ________ | 83.30 | 78.00-85.60 | 84.31 |
USDA 2020-21 South American corn and soy production
| USDA Feb. | Average of | Range of | USDA Jan. | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| estimate | estimates | estimates | estimate | |
| ARGENTINA | ||||
| Corn | ________ | 47.03 | 44.50-47.50 | 47.50 |
| Soybeans | ________ | 47.64 | 46.00-48.50 | 48.00 |
| BRAZIL | ||||
| Corn | ________ | 108.40 | 105.00-110.22 | 109.00 |
| Soybeans | ________ | 132.46 | 129.00-134.50 | 133.00 |
USDA world production
| Feb. USDA | Jan. USDA | Feb. USDA | Jan. USDA | |
| 2019-20 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2020-21 | |
| estimate | estimate | estimate | estimate | |
| Argentina wheat | _____ | 19.76 | _____ | 17.50 |
| Australia wheat | _____ | 15.20 | _____ | 30.00 |
| Canada wheat | _____ | 32.67 | _____ | 35.18 |
| Russia wheat | _____ | 73.61 | _____ | 85.30 |
| Argentina corn | _____ | 51.00 | _____ | 47.50 |
| Brazil corn | _____ | 102.00 | _____ | 109.00 |
| South Africa corn | _____ | 16.00 | ____ | 16.00 |
| Ukraine corn | ______ | 35.89 | ______ | 29.50 |
| China corn | _____ | 260.78 | _____ | 260.67 |
| Argentina soy | _____ | 48.80 | _____ | 48.00 |
| Brazil soy | ______ | 126.00 | ______ | 133.00 |
U.S All Wheat sales are up 5%, shipments down 1% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase
By class, HRW wheat sales down 4%, shipments up 2%, with USDA up 5%
SRW down 25%, shipments down 30% (USDA down 18%)
HRS up 9%, shipments up 2% (USDA up 1%)
Corn up 146%, shipments up 80% (USDA) up 43%
Soybeans up 82%, shipments up 77% (USDA up 33%)
Soymeal down 1%, shipments up 18% (USDA up 1%)
Soyoil down 3%, shipments up 3% (USDA down 3%)
CME Raises Wheat, Corn Futures Margins For March – Reuters
04-Feb-2021 03:23:47 PM
- CME RAISES WHEAT FUTURES (W) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 5.6% TO $1,900 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,800 FOR MARCH 2021
- CME RAISES CORN FUTURES (C) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 7.1% TO $1,500 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,400 FOR MARCH 2021
- SAYS INITIAL MARGIN RATES ARE 110% OF THESE LEVELS
- SAYS RATES WILL BE EFFECTIVE AFTER THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON FEB. 5, 2021
Trade estimates for Canadian crop stockpiles – Reuters News
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Feb 3 (Reuters) – Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its estimates of Canadian crop stocks as of Dec. 31, 2020 on Friday, Feb. 5 at 7:30 a.m. CST (1330 GMT).
| Average estimate | Lowest estimate | Highest estimate | Statscan Dec 2019 | |
| (mln tonnes) | ||||
| All wheat | 25.4 | 24.4 | 27.0 | 25.85 |
| Durum | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.661 |
| Canola | 12.3 | 10.7 | 13.8 | 15.907 |
| Oats | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.671 |
| Barley | 5.9 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 5.954 |
Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina Dias confirmed the government expects to harvest bumper soybean and corn crops in spite of planting and harvesting delays in 2020. A drought late last year delayed sowing of Brazil’s soybeans, and excess rainfall disrupted harvesting in January. This delayed delivery of grain to trading companies and affected Brazil’s ability to export. Speaking in an event to mark the beginning of the harvest in the northeastern state of Bahia, Dias reaffirmed that farmers will reap up to 133 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021 and potentially more than 103 million tonnes of corn.
U.S. soybean exports remain strong; Brazil exports will jump over the next months – Refinitiv Commodities Research
As of 28 January, the U.S. shipped 8.1 million tons of soybeans, the highest January exports over the past six years. Accumulated soybean deliveries during September-January exceeded 47.2 million tons, accounting for 80% of total exports projection by USDA. To reach USDA’s projection (60.69 million tons), the U.S. only needs to deliver another 11.9 million tons of soybeans during February-August, compared to 19.9 million tons for the 5-year average during the time. In addition, outstanding sales of soybeans were 12.3 million tons as of 21 January. As such, the delivered soybeans and outstanding sales totaled 57.9 million tons. Outstanding sales to China continued to decline to 3.6 million tons, close to the levels prior to trade war. Sales to other destinations (besides China) also declined to 8.7 million tons. As a result, U.S. soybean exports will continue to decline month by month, but remain at the high levels compared to the same period of the past six years.
The Argentine government has not ruled out the possibility of increasing taxes on food exports as part of its effort to control high inflation; Consumer prices in the grains exporting country rose by more than 36% last year, heaping economic problems on families also hit by a recession that started in 2018 and fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Argentina’s 2020/21 corn crop is expected at 46 million tonnes, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, citing lower-than-expected yields caused by dry weather as the reason for cutting its earlier estimate of 47 million tonnes. “The water deficit during December affected the potential yield of early-planted corn in the provinces of Cordoba, Santa Fe and part of Buenos Aires,” the exchange said in its weekly crop report.
Russia is accelerating plans to switch to a formula-based tax on wheat exports, the economy minister said on Thursday, as Moscow strives to curb food inflation in the COVID-19 pandemic.
The switch to a formula, which will now take place on June 2, a month earlier than previously planned, will mean the tax will automatically rise in response to any increase in prices. The move to combat domestic food inflation in Russia comes alongside measures taken by some other governments, as global prices rise. An index issued by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization hit a 6-1/2 year high earlier on Thursday.
Euronext wheat ended flat to slightly lower on Thursday, curbed by weakness in Chicago grain futures, while traders assessed the potential impact of Russia’s plans to introduce an ongoing export tax. March milling wheat settled unchanged on the day at 224.75 euros ($268.87) a tonne. he front-month contract was consolidating after touching a three-week low of 221.25 euros on Wednesday.
Malaysia end-Jan palm oil stocks seen rebounding as exports, output plunge
- Jan end-stocks seen up 1.8% m/m at 1.29 mln T -survey
- Output seen down 13% at 1.16 mln T -survey
- Exports seen down 35% at 1.06 mln T -survey
- Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due on Feb. 10
Breakdown of January estimates (in tonnes):
| Range | Median | |
| Production | 1,108,000-1,400,000 | 1,160,000 |
| Exports | 1,000,000-1,500,000 | 1,056,000 |
| Imports | 0-282,000 | 110,000 |
| Closing stocks | 1,158,000-1,360,000 | 1,287,000 |