By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 1 in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $0.50, and; Soyoil down 10 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 13 yuan in Soybeans, up 4 in Corn, down 14 in Soymeal, up 34 in Soyoil, and unchanged in Palm Oil.
The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 44 ringgit at 2,175 (basis October) on global market weakness.
Chicago corn rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday as bargain buying lifted prices, but gains were limited on expectations of favorable rains across the U.S. Midwest. Soybeans edged higher after closing lower, while wheat firmed although ample supplies kept a lid on the market. Forecasts for some rain in key growing areas of the U.S. Midwest in the coming weeks is adding pressure on the corn market and bolstered the production view issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday.
The U.S. Midwest weather forecast for the near term remains the same with rains favoring the northern two-thirds of the region versus the southern areas—temps will be fluctuating from average to below to the opposite into the second half of next week.
The Southern U.S. Plains light rains over a ten day period with temps running above average.
The Northern U.S. Plains looks to have below average precip with temps running above average over the next 10 days.
The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states have a two-week outlook that both regions should see rain.
The 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Midwest continues with models differing—the GFS has average temps and slightly below average precip—the European, below average temps and above average precip.
In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 69 lots; Soyoil ZERO; and; Soybeans 143 contracts.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 23,000 Corn; net sold 7,000 soybeans; sold 4,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 1,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 17,000 Corn; net short 70,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 40,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 17,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 5,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,600; Corn down 8,400; Soybeans up 5,500 contracts; Soymeal down 2,500 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,000.
There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 7)—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1,251; Soybeans 894; Soyoil 1,910 lots; Soymeal 820; Rice 1,036; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 1,176 contracts.
TODAY—–WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—NOPA CRUSH REPORT—
In tender activity—-Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Thailand bought 50,000t optional-origin feed wheat–
Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News
|Trade estimates for 2018-19||Trade estimates for 2019-20|
NOPA members likely crushed 155.826 million bushels of soybeans in July versus a June crush of 148.843 million bushels and 167.733-million-bushel in July a year ago
—Soyoil supplies were seen at 1.530 billion pounds versus 1.535 billion pounds at the end of June and 1.764 billion pounds at the end of July 2018
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended August 9th averaged 1.05 mil barrels per day (up 0.48% versus a week ago, down 2.52% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 23.883 mil barrels (up 3.31% versus a week ago, up 3.76% versus last year); corn use for the week was 107.8 mil bu (107.3 mil last week and versus the 68.3 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections).
—September ethanol futures were trading at their lowest levels in nearly five years, currently trading at $1.272 per barrel, down 1.2% for the session; this decrease extends the contract’s fall to nearly 25% since June; prices haven’t been this low since October 2014
Wire story reports as President Trump maps out his re-election bid, farmers in this battleground state are backing him even with the U.S. Farm Belt bracing for deeper pain from his trade fight with China; in and around the livestock barns, agriculture building and an antique-tractor collection at the Iowa State Fair in recent days, farmers almost universally expressed support for the president and pledged to vote for him in 2020.
Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in China
—Chicken meat production will increase approximately 14 percent, totaling 15.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020; consumption trends for primarily chicken meat but also other animal proteins, will increase for the remainder of 2019 and carry into 2020 as a result of declines in domestic pork production; for 2020, chicken imports are forecast at 600,000 metric tons (MT) as a result of decreased pork availability and higher prices
Non-U.S. soybean and soybean-oil imports will temporarily alleviate China’s supply woes but aren’t a sustainable long-term solution, Fitch Solutions says; while such imports will likely “help narrow the supply gap, especially if Brazil–the other major soybean supplier–continues to expand soy area, this won’t be sufficient to satisfy China’s pre-trade war total soybean demand; once China recovers from the African swine fever epidemic, starting in 2020-21, it will likely log a 91.1 million-metric ton soybean-production deficit, while Brazil’s exportable surplus is just 75.8 million tons
CHINA SELLS 518,385 TONNES OF CORN, OR 13.08% OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF CORN IS 1,684 YUAN/TONNE -TRADE CENTRE
The peso’s nosedive since Argentina’s primary election on Sunday will encourage farmers to sell their produce overseas, says Commerzbank; however, the long-term outlook for exports is muddied by a long tradition of agricultural protectionism; after winning office in 2015, President Macri reduced export taxes on soybeans and eliminated them on all other farm products; but he introduced a new tax on all exports in response to the 2018 peso crisis and a government led by his rival, Alberto Fernandez, could “continue in the Kirchner tradition and significantly raise export duties.”
Russia’s agriculture ministry does not see any significant risks for the grain harvest this year despite several Russian regions declaring states of emergency over extreme weather; the ministry kept its forecast for the grain harvest this year unchanged at 118 million tons.
The APK-Inform consultancy raised its Ukraine grain harvest outlook for 2019 to 72.5 million tons from a previous forecast of 71.8 million tons, citing favorable weather; its forecast for Ukraine’s 2019/20 (July-June) grain exports was increased to 50.7 million tons from 49.9 million tons a month earlier.
EU wheat harvest goes well after heatwave, late rain a worry; brisk wheat harvest progress; bigger crops expected; France, Germany, Poland almost finished; repeated rain a worry in Britain
France exported 9.7 million tons of soft wheat outside the European Union in the 2018/19 season that ended on June 30; the volume was up almost 20% from 8.1 mln t in 2017/18; France shipped 7.4 mln t of soft wheat within the EU in 2018/19, down nearly 20% from 9.2 mln t in 2017/18; that meant total French soft wheat exports were little changed at 17.0 mln t against 17.2 mln t in 2017/18.
German wheat exporters are seeking access to new markets including China, Mexico and Indonesia, an industry association said, following signals that Saudi Arabia is about to open up to imports from Russia.
STRATEGIE GRAINS RAISES EU 2019/20 SOFT WHEAT EXPORT FORECAST TO 24.8 MLN T FROM 21.9 MLN T LAST MONTH
—CONSULTANCY STRATEGIE GRAINS RAISES EU 2019/20 SOFT WHEAT CROP FORECAST TO 142.9 MLN T FROM 140.6 MLN T MLN LAST MONTH
—STRATEGIE GRAINS RAISES EU 2019/20 MAIZE CROP FORECAST TO 63.2 MLN T FROM 62.7 MLN T LAST MONTH
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the August 1-15 period are estimated up 14.3% on month at 752,470 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said
—Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for August 1 – 15 rose 11.2 percent to 755,820 tons from 679,920 tons shipped during July 1 – 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
—Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the August 1-15 period are estimated up 16.6% on month at 765,205 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said AMBack