AgMarket.Net Weekly video
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 3 cents, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 5, Soymeal down $2.00, and Soyoil up 15 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 11 yuan in soybeans, up 14 in Corn, down 3 in Soymeal, up 46 in Soyoil, and up 52 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 47 ringgit at 2,778 (basis October) at midsession tracking rival vegoils.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has large differences between the models; both the European and GFS models have rains across the region depending on location; temps are seen below average for the rest of this week then, warming to above average by the weekend into next week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest is also mixed in the models with the European brining in ridging with hot and dry conditions, the GFS with average to below average rainfall for the region and average to a bit below average temps.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 5,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net even in SRW Wheat; short 151,000 Corn; net long 70,000 Soybeans; net short 20,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 54,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,000 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,300; Corn down 8,300; Soybeans up 2,700 contracts; Soymeal up 3,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 6,700.
Deliveries were 24 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil, and ZERO Soybeans
There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 2)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,698 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 174; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Thailand seeks optional-origin feed wheat—
U.S. corn rated 72% good-excellent; soybeans 73% -USDA – Reuters New
|Category||Analyst average||Analyst range||USDA last week||USDA this week|
|Winter wheat harvested||89||87-92||81||85|
|Spring wheat harvested||8||5-15||1||5|
|Spring wheat condition*||70||69-72||70||73|
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 85% versus 81% last week, 80% a year ago, 88% average.
U.S. Spring Wheat harvested was 5% versus 1% last week, 2% a year ago, 10% average.
Spring Wheat was rated 73% good to excellent versus 70% last week, and 73% a year ago; 22% fair (24% a week ago, 22% a year ago), and; 5% poor to very poor (6% last week, 5% a year ago).
Corn doughing was 39% versus 22% a week ago, 20 last year, and 33% average.
Corn was rated 72% good to excellent versus 72% last week, and 57% a year ago; 21% fair (21% last week, 30% last year), 7% poor to very poor (7% last week, 13% last year).
U.S. Oats harvested was 49% versus 32% a week ago, 29% last year, and 43% average.
Oats were rated 62% good to excellent versus 61% last week and 65% a year ago; 28% fair (27% last week, 27% a year ago), and; 10% poor to very poor (12% last week, 8% a year ago).
U.S. Soybeans setting pods was 59% versus 43% a week ago, 32% last year, and 54% average.
U.S. Soybeans were rated 73% good to excellent versus 72% a week ago, and 54% a year ago; 21% fair (22% last week, 33% a year ago), and; 6% poor to very poor (6% last week, 13% a year ago).
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running up 9% ahead of a year ago (up 8% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year
—Corn 16% behind a year ago (16% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season
—Soybeans are down 5% on the year (down 4% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
The June U.S. Soybean crush was 177 mil bu versus 180 a month ago and 158 last year
—Soyoil stocks were 2.270 bil lbs versus 2.446 bil last month and 2.014 bil a year ago
—Soymeal stocks 420,000t (442,000t last month), 376,000t a year ago
U.S. corn use for fuel alcohol for the month of June was 379 mil bu versus 300 mil a month ago, and 456 mil last year.
—DDGS production was 1.664 MT versus 1.234 mt a year ago, and 1.960 mt last year
STONEX (FORMERLY INTL FCSTONE) SAYS ESTIMATES U.S. 2020 CORN PRODUCTION AT 15.320 BILLION BUSHELS, YIELD OF 182.4 BU/ACRE
STONEX SAYS ESTIMATES U.S. 2020 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AT 4.496 BILLION BUSHELS, YIELD OF 54.2 BU/ACRE
Shares of Tyson Foods Inc. rose nearly 1% in Monday premarket trading after the meat producer reported third-quarter earnings that beat expectations; net income totaled $527 million, or $1.44 per share, down from $676 million, or $1.84 per share, last year.
China corn video stokes food security fears amid coronavirus pandemic, flooding and drought
China’s long-awaited live hog futures contract is almost ready, offering a vital hedging tool for the world’s largest pork industry, which has been roiled by an African swine fever outbreak that devastated herds and sent pork prices soaring; the country’s first live-animal physical-delivery contract has been planned for a decade, and is expected to be popular with domestic traders on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.
BRAZIL JULY SOYBEAN EXPORTS TOTAL 10.37 MILLION T VERSUS 7.44 MILLION T IN SAME MONTH YEAR AGO – GOVERNMENT DATA
BRAZIL JULY CORN EXPORTS TOTAL 4.15 MILLION TNS VERSUS 5.9 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH YEAR AGO
BRAZIL JULY BEEF EXPORTS TOTAL 169,200 TNS VERSUS 133,200 TNS IN THE SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
BRAZIL JULY CHICKEN EXPORTS TOTAL 337,500 TNS VERSUS 371,800 TNS IN THE SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
BRAZIL JULY PORK EXPORTS TOTAL 90,200 TNS VERSUS 61,480 TNS IN THE SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA on Tuesday increased Ukraine’s 2020 corn harvest forecast to 38.9 million tons from 36.8 million tons
UGA also said that corn exports are likely to rise to 33 million tons in the 2020/21 season, from 30.3 million the previous season.
The union’s estimates for the 2020 wheat harvest and exports were left unchanged at 26.8 million tons and 18 million tons respectively.
Grain traders union UGA revised down its forecast for Ukraine’s 2020/21 rapeseed harvest to 2.93 million tons from the previous outlook of 3.33 million tons
UGA said it had also reduced its estimate for Ukraine’s 2020/21 rapeseed exports to 2.65 million tons from 3 million tonsBack