Tuesday AM Comments from Matt Bennett

Good Morning!

Harvest is all finished up for me and my crew.  As far as getting done is concerned, we were blessed.  When it comes to yields, there was no doubt it could have been worse…I’ll readily admit that.  However, when it comes to yields, we were off significantly from where we were a year ago both on corn and beans.  The weather in our immediate area wasn’t conducive to flat-black ground producing like it can…even where we had tile.  As has been the case a few years of late, our best ground was the worst yield and the worst ground was the best yield.  Overall, the year was ok, but net income for many producers will be less-than-ideal.  For those fighting the weather, I hope it gets better for you.  We got a decent snow on Monday, which will throw a monkey-wrench in early-week harvest plans.  With a high on Tuesday of 23 degrees, it may be a couple of days before guys are running again.  Please be safe and keep the correspondence coming.  mbennett@AgMarket.Net

The corn and bean markets both stunk it up on Monday.  While the weather for harvest is certainly not ideal, the over-riding issue of course has to do with the US/China trade situation.  With President Trump stating he hadn’t agreed to any full roll-back of tariffs, the markets were in sell-off mode, furthering the losses we saw last week.  It truly is amazing to see these markets selling off when we are in the midst of the latest harvest we’ve seen in many years.  The name of the game the last few weeks has been demand…and likely will continue in the absence of a major supply problem.  Outside markets were likely viewed as mixed as the Dollar was lower while crude closed lower as well.  December crude settled down 34 cents at $56.90.  This was 50 cents off the high and 65 cents off the low.

Corn – On Sunday night, the corn market wasn’t moving much and traded lower the whole session.  The day session was no different and December corn closed down 4 cents at $3.73 ¼. This was 3 ¾ cents off the high and three-quarters of a penny off the low.  No weekly export inspections were available as government offices were closed for Veteran’s Day.  The same could be said for harvest progress and conditions reports.  While we haven’t had much feed for the bull of late, taking on negative news is precisely what we don’t need.  The US/Chinese trade deal has long been thought of as a ‘bean deal’, but the fact over the long haul is corn could be a huge beneficiary.  This corn market is tough to watch…and with the USDA showing essentially the same carry as before with a smaller crop, there’s not a whole lot to trade…especially considering the trade’s blasé attitude towards this extremely late pace. With propane issues and weather issues, only time will tell how many acres will still be standing when the calendar turns to 2020.  We have a good chunk of 2019 corn sold…and some 2020 sold now, so I will personally be patient on new sales…and hope this market gets some footing.

Soybeans – Soybeans on Sunday night into Monday were also unable to get anything going.  By the close, beans had really lost their footing, with November beans settling down 14 ½ cents at $9.05.  This was 12 ¼ cents off the high and three-quarters of a penny off the low.  As with corn, there were no reports coming from the USDA on weekly export inspections or crop progress/harvest.  The tough thing about Monday’s trade is we settled below some key support.  This bean market sure looks susceptible to further selling without some sort of positive trade news soon.  While weather is less-than-ideal, there’s less bean acres left standing in the field than corn acres…still, the 15% or so I would assume that’s out there could take a big hit if weather doesn’t cooperate.  This year I have several beans in storage yet and while basis improvements have made that a good decision from selling them when they were harvested, we could lose that good fortune soon as this bean market can move fast.  Keep your risk spread out on soybeans…and always remember to keep your focus on profitability.

Let us know if you’d like to discuss any strategies.  Be sure to visit our website at https://www.agmarket.net/ if you’d like to get more information on the markets.  Be safe out there and have a great week!


Matt Bennett

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