Watch this weeks video – an excellent discussion on how to manage your inventory in a market that could be changing to a demand driven market.
you can also view it on our www.AgMarket.App
I hope all is well around your place. It’s white around ours! We received around 6 inches of snow on Sunday afternoon/evening and school was cancelled. While that made for some happy kids and beautiful scenery, the snow can be a bit of a pain. I’m not a huge fan of feeding cows when we’ve gotten snow, but regardless, it could be worse, right? The interesting thing around here is we’ve gotten more snow on Monday and it really looks like a winter wonderland. However, by Christmas day, it’s supposed to be 50 degrees…what a mess we have coming? I don’t know about you, but I would prefer a white Christmas if I had a choice. Keep your updates coming…I know a few of you are still trudging along. I sure hope the weather cooperates with you. mbennett@AgMarket.Net
The corn and bean markets started the week in rally mode. Sunday night’s market was a resumption of the rally we saw late last week, while Monday’s market looked subsequent at times. Fortunately, both corn and beans posted solid gains on the day as most talk centered around the US/Chinese trade deal. With $40 billion in US ag purchases continuing to be the number most floated, plenty of number crunching has been done as we all try to figure out what might be included in the shopping list. While most feel beans will recuperate some of their lost business, it looks like the biggest winners IF this comes to pass could be corn, wheat, beef and pork. Outside markets were likely a supportive influence as the Dollar was lower while crude rallied slightly. January crude settled up 17 cents at $60.24. This was a dime off the high and 53 cents off the low.
Corn – On Sunday night, the corn market jumped out of the gate with nice gains and settled into a narrow trading range for the bulk of the session. The day trade saw gains wilt a couple of times but a nice close towards the upper end of the range was satisfactory to the bulls. March corn closed up 7 cents at $3.88. This was a penny and a half off the high and 4 ¾ cents off the low. Weekly export inspections were much better than last week at 687k metric tons, which is over 300k better than a week ago. Harvest progress is no longer being reported even though we have a billion bushels plus out in the field at last count. As I talked about over the weekend in my newsletter, we’re getting close to making another new-crop corn sale. IF we see CZ20 hit $4.04 this week, I’m going to sell another 10% with thoughts I could make another sale at any time, depending on the tone of trade/exports/demand. Stay tuned if you’re interested in what I’m doing.
Soybeans – Soybeans on Sunday night into Monday continued the rally. Fortunately, the day session was even better, as double-digit gains helped the bulls continue to be in control. On the close, January beans were up 14 ½ cents at $9.22. This is 25 cents better than the close last Monday! This was just three-quarters of a penny off the high and 9 ½ off the low. Weekly export inspections were quite similar to a week ago levels…at 1.26 million metric tons. There’s no doubt demand for beans has been better than many in the trade expected when it comes to exports. On the other hand, soybean crush, which had been rather stout, came in for November below trade expectations at 165 million bushels. For beans, so much depends on what China ends up doing. IF they decide to import a fair amount of beans from the US that we aren’t expecting, it would put our carry-out at much tighter levels than previously thought. On the other hand, if this trade deal would be a bust, given how big a crop South America is poised to add to the world ledger, we could see a resumption of a downward trending market. Either way, a person needs to manage some risk. I’m likely to sell more beans this week as well anywhere in this $9.60-9.70 range.
Let us know if you’d like to discuss any strategies. Be sure to visit our website at https://www.agmarket.net/ if you’d like to get more information on the markets. Be safe out there and have a great week!
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