Sunday Night Calls 100619

From Drew Lerner https://worldweather.cc/drew-lerner/

 

2019-10-06_20-08-21

  • U.S. weather this week is mostly about an expected cold surge and accompanying snow and rain event
    • Cold debuts in the northwestern Plains Tuesday with rain and snow changing to all snow and accumulating several inches across Montana and in northwestern North Dakota
      • Snowfall of 3 to 8 inches will occur in central and northeastern Montana a while up to 4 inches occur in northwestern North Dakota
    • Cold overspreads most of the northern and central Plains Wednesday and Thursday
      • Strong wind speeds are expected with periods of snow from Colorado and northwestern Kansas into North Dakota
        • Accumulations will vary from 1 to 3 inches in the west-central high Plains while varying from 2 to 6 inches in the heart of the Dakotas with locally more
    • Rain impacts most of the western Corn Belt late Wednesday into Thursday with some of the rain changing to snow before ending
      • Moisture totals will vary from 0.15 to 0.75 inch with a few amounts in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota over 1.00 inch
    • Strong thunderstorms may evolve in Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Illinois where rainfall of 0.50 to 1.50 inches and locally over 2.00 inches is possible
    • Blizzard conditions will evolve Friday from the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into southeastern Manitoba
      • Snowfall of 3 to 8 inches will be possible with wind speeds of 20 to 35 mph

 

This table show you how many acres per state were in Pre Dent last week. All northern states are probably the same as 52 degree highs did nothing to advance maturity

 

As of last week there were 3.81 mi l acres in the norther three states ND, SD, MN and 643 mil bu in pre-Dent! If the crops are killed, a low of 60 mil bu and a high of

 

According to a well-known seed company- somewhere between 20-40% yield loss could take place. That means around 200 mil bu will be at risk of loss in addition to whatever the USDA say’s this week

 

 

Other key points to trade this week

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USDA report Thursday – expect a friendly or bullish report. …. But with USDA history …. You cannot trust or outguess what they will say or how the trade will react

US – China trade talks start Thursday – could go either way. Everyone wants/needs a deal but that is hard given the situation both Xi and Trump are in

Weather – Argentina is improving. Brazil is improving in ½ the area.

 

Calls will be higher. We are still long and maintaining long board positions with a 420 objective. We still hold 35% of 2019 crop with 404 as our next target. We are recommending 10% sales on 2020 corn and 15% beans.

 

 

Bill Biedermann

AgMarket.Net

815-893-7443 o

815-404-1917 c

 

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