Good Morning!
I hope your week has been great so far. Our week around here has been good as the rain slowed a few things down. While most of our spraying is done and the re-plant is officially over, we still have plenty of mowing to do. It’s kind of tough to mow roadsides after getting a soaking rain though. I imagine we’ll be back at it today or tomorrow. While temperatures haven’t been bad, it appears it’s going to get hot this next week. While a dome of high pressure usually makes us all nervous, most forecasters feel there’s enough moisture in the ground through enough of the corn-belt that a ridge won’t stay around long. Regardless, this summer is strange so far…we don’t get summer baseball for the kids and my daughter can’t do volleyball open gyms either. Meetings are all virtual…so it’s a good thing my family gets along for the most part…as our time together/on top of each other isn’t ending just yet. matt@agmarket.net
The corn market started the day looking solid while beans weren’t doing much. The day session wasn’t kind to corn as it lost ground little by little and at the end of the day showed decent losses. The bean market also showed losses heading into the close…and one has to wonder if both markets are a direct reflection of the moisture many received over the weekend and early this week. I know not all received it, so if you were on the low end, I’m sure sorry to hear that. US/Chinese relations continue to be scrutinized with correspondent Navarro stating the Phase I deal is over on Monday night…only to recant his statement after President Trump refuted it. Outside markets weren’t supportive as July crude oil settled down $2.36 at $38.01. This was $2.53 off the high and 70 off the low. The DOW was off 627 points at 25,393. The Dollar was up .597, closing at 97.2.
Corn – The corn market looked like it might recoup some losses to start the day…but faltered and settled lower. July corn settled three-quarters of a penny lower at $3.24 ¼. This was 4 ¾ cents off the high and a half-penny off the low of the day. The EIA report from the Department of Energy was up again…this time for the eighth week in a row at 91.2 million bushels of corn usage. This was over five million bushels above last week and 38 mb off the marketing-year low. The corn market has really been gut-punched this week as traders see the little weather scare over with for now. While not everyone received rain the last few days, enough have received plenty to give the bears full control for now. In all reality, we need major demand news to stem this tide…so IF China purchases a bunch of corn and/or the quarterly stocks report has a friendly surprise, we could see the corn market regain its footing. While most are calling for reduced corn acres, that alone will certainly not be enough to stabilize a market concerned with potentially the biggest supplies we’ve seen in years. I’m not selling more for now though as these prices for new corn aren’t good enough for me to get excited. I’d keep your offers in…hopefully we wake up one of these mornings to major export news!
Soybeans – Soybeans weren’t able to get anything going during the day session and closed in the red. July beans settled 4 ¼ cents lower at $8.70 ¾. The close was 6 ¾ cents off the high and three-quarters of a penny off the low of the day. The bean market still has potential from my vantage point…but will struggle to rally when corn is unable to rally. Next week’s report looms large for beans as traders expect bean acres will go up while most expect bean stocks to not be much of a surprise. IF we get through the report without beans falling out of bed, I would assume we could see some rally action unless weather is pristine the rest of the summer. There is no question this bean crop needs to be a big one given how tight the balance sheet appears…especially in relation to the corn supply and demand situation. IF we’d see the Chinese continue to buy US beans, that would only heighten the need for big US production. Long story short, I want to be patient for now on bean sales.
Call us if you want to talk positions or strategy…or simply bend our ear. If you want more information on the markets, be sure to visit my team’s website at https://www.agmarket.net/
Matt Bennett
217-273-1133 – Work
@chief321 – Twitter
matt@bennettconsulting.net – E-mail
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