Matt Bennett’s Mid Week Comments

Good Morning!

I hope things are running smooth around your place. Around ours, we’re looking to pick some corn but can’t find any dry enough. With a couple of the local end-users offering a big premium and cheap or free drying, it’s tough to sit. With both of those systems wanting the corn to be 25% or under, we went out and hand-shelled a few fields to see what we could come up with. The driest we have found is around 26%, which means it’s likely a little wetter if we get out there with the combine. I really hope we can at least get something harvested this week just to make sure everything is running good…that and I’d like to get in on some good early deals. My experience has been the ‘phantom’ yield loss on corn as it dries down is actually a thing…I’d argue that with anyone whether I have any scientific data to prove it or not. We hope to hear from you as you get started.

The corn market couldn’t get any traction on Wednesday and closed quietly while the bean market spent time in the red on Tuesday night but closed higher…for the 12 session in a row. With daily export sales of soybeans the last couple of days, this fervor over increased demand hasn’t died down much. It isn’t hurting the markets seeing the frost/freeze forecasts and actual temperatures the last couple of days as the trade is already banking on a lower crop that many were assuming just a few weeks ago. Outside markets were likely positive as October crude oil settled up $1.29 at $38.05. This was 40 cents off the high and $1.89 off the low of the day. The DOW was up 447 points at 27,972. The Dollar was backing off after being up earlier in the day, settling .183 lower at 93.258.

Corn – The corn market couldn’t get anything going on Tuesday night into Wednesday even as the bean market continued its ascension. December corn closed a penny lower at $3.60 ¼. This was a penny off the high and 2 ¼ cents off the low of the day. There was no EIA report from the Department of Energy due to the holiday on Monday. The report we have seen was from Tuesday on the crop progress report, which showed corn ratings dipping another point to 61% good/excellent. While we generally see ratings dip as we get into September, it’s not surprising conditions have deteriorated when much of the corn belt saw a dry August. The report on Friday could be the big driver for a bit as the USDA will update yields and total production as well as demand. I’m looking for a neutral to friendly report, but keep in mind many have been looking for a bullish report for a while now. That generally means it could take a fairly bullish report to get this market to rally. I’m still in a wait and see mode, not getting into too big of a hurry to make sales. As I’ve said though…IF you have much above APH yields, I’m sure you can pencil some profit. With that being the name of the game, do what’s most profitable for your operation and you can’t go wrong.

November Bean Chart

Soybeans – Soybeans were the star of the show as they have been for the last couple of weeks. November beans settled up 5 ¾ cents at $9.78 ¾. The close was 3 cents off the high and 10 ¼ off the low of the day. The bean market is on fire. With daily sales almost expected and the weather continuing to throw curve-balls, the funds haven’t stopped their buying spree. Dryness in South America continues to add some fuel as reports from Brazil indicate a reluctance to seed before needed rainfall arrives. While the US crop is likely to be over 50 bu/acre, the trade continues to down-grade the crop. With 65% of the crop rated good/excellent, we lost a point from last week’s conditions. So, what will the USDA say this Friday? My thoughts are carry-out could end up lower than 500 mb pretty safely, and as we move lower from there, it highlights the possibility that bean prices below $9 could be a thing of the past for the time being. I’m not bullish but it sure is tough to be bearish. While we expect a setback in here somewhere with the extreme overbought condition the market is in, there’s still plenty to be excited about moving forward. I’m still selling my beans across the scale though…the ones I don’t have contracted. To me, it’s tough to go broke when selling beans at profitable levels.

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Matt Bennett

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