I hope things are going ok for you and your operation. I’m around home for the most part this week but did a meeting in DeWitt, Iowa on Wednesday evening. While we’re still wet at home, some of these guys are talking about farming in the next week or two if they have some fieldwork to do. I’m hopeful in my area we can miss a rain or two as we’re as saturated as can be. I know you’re probably tired of hearing that…and I’m tired of reporting it as well. However, most forecasts continue to call for a wet spring, which is tough to stomach for those of us who had such a rough go last year…which includes darn near all of us. If you have anything interesting to talk about weather-wise, let me know. I’d be interested to hear from you. matt@agmarket.net
The corn and bean markets both had a solid day again on Wednesday with buying continuing to come back into the market after the rough week we just had. As the talks of China buying US products continue to be around the market, it seems some may be hesitant to be short. Talk of weather in South America continues to be bearish the markets with no real story…so a big corn and bean crop appear to be dialed in. While the bean crop is likely as much of it is harvested, the corn crop has a long way to go with the Safrinha crop dominating the size of the 1st crop corn. IF there is inclement weather for the 2nd crop, we could see more buying come in. Be careful to assume this rally lasts forever though…with Cornoavirus, there’s no way to know how these markets will act. The outside markets weren’t a huge impact with the DOW up, while the Dollar and crude were quiet. April Crude oil settled the day up a dime at $47.28. The close was $1.15 off the high and 61 cents off the low.
Corn – The corn market had another nice day as buying continued to erase some of the recent losses. May corn settled 3 ¾ cents higher at $3.85. This was 1 ¾ cents off the high and 6 off the low. The EIA report from the Department of Energy was solid, showing an increase in corn usage of over three million bushels. At 108.5, mb, usage was a welcome surprise on the week. This corn market looked dead as a doornail last week. It sure is nice to see buying come in. While we have a way to go before getting many to the point they want to sell, we should always remember where we’ve come from. We’re over 20 cents off the lows from last week when the market made a new low for the week and reversed on Friday. Yes, it’s easy to get sucked into thinking this will continue…and maybe it will. However, rallies generally should be sold from my vantage point…at least increments. Like I always say…”a rally isn’t a rally unless it gets sold.”
Soybeans – Soybeans also rallied a bit as support from a strong corn market seemed to spill over. May beans settled 3 ¾ cents higher at $9.07 ¼. The close was 3 ¾ off of both the high and low of the day. I don’t have a ton of news to report for beans. With some states in Brazil talking a lower crop than a year ago, some are reporting much larger production. So it appears overall production very well could be a record. That keeps a bit of a lid on prices, while Chinese purchases continue to linger around the market. While my opinion is their purchases takes sales away from other countries…so world supply isn’t affected much, the fact we should see a rally from big Chinese purchases remains relevant. IF and when they buy US beans, I’d like to have offers in to take advantage of any level of rally. I feel strongly we need to have a plan in place soon…or now to be more specific. If you need help with a plan, please let us know.
Call me if you want to talk positions or strategy. If you want more information on the markets, be sure to visit my team’s website at https://www.agmarket.net/
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Matt Bennett
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