April 1!!

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ADMIS AM Comments


Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 9 cents, HRW down 5; HRS Wheat down 3, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 11, Soymeal down $3.00, and Soyoil down 50 points.


For the month, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 43 cents; HRW up 40; HRS up 12; Corn was down 24 cents; Soybeans down 12; Soymeal up $8.00, and; Soyoil down 170 points; Crushing margins were up 113 cents, Oilshare down 1 cent.


Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 34 yuan in Soybeans, unchanged in Corn, down 51 in Soymeal, down 76 in Soyoil, and down 82 in Palm Oil.


Malaysian palm oil prices were down 64 ringgit at 2,338 (basis June) on demand plunge.


New month. Managed funds may have reduced soybean, soymeal and wheat positions before month end and USDS report. Some managers are back overnight and putting on new bearish bets in grains. USDA report was bearish corn. Lower US soybean acres could be supportive but overnight financial and energy markets are trading fear virus spread will reduce demand. It will take a 2020 weather scare to rally prices.


For the U.S. Western Kansas and eastern Colorado could use greater moisture for unirrigated crops to develop more favorably and not much moisture is expected in this area through next Tuesday


Last evening’s GFS model was notably wetter in the southeastern states Apr. 11 – 15. Rain will also be on the increase in the Delta; In the lower Midwest, rain will be frequent


For South America, Conditions in much of Argentina and Brazil will still be favorable; though, a need for greater rainfall will increase some in Argentina where there are late season crops


The player sheet had funds net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 9,000 Corn; net bought 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 3,000 Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 25,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 132,000 Corn; net short 5,000 contracts of Soybeans; net long 30,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 3,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 8,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 5,000; Corn up 11,200; Soybeans up 16,100 contracts; Soymeal up 780 lots, and; Soyoil down 7,800.


There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 349)—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 21; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 670; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.





Tender Activity—Philippines seek 50,000t optional-origin wheat—Tunisia seeks 75,000t optional-origin wheat—Algeria bought 250,000t optional-origin wheat—Egypt seeks 3,000t optional-origin soyoil, 2,000t sunoil—



U.S. quarterly stocks as of March 1 (in billions of bushels):


USDA March 1 Average of Range of USDA USDA
estimate analysts’ analysts’ March 1, Dec. 1,
estimates estimates 2019 2019
Wheat 1.412 1.432 1.385-1.572 1.593 1.841
Corn 7.953 8.125 7.825-8.492 8.613 11.402
Soybeans 2.253 2.241 2.075-2.701 2.727 3.258



U.S. plantings of major crops for 2020 harvest (in millions of acres):


USDA March 31 Average of Range of USDA 2020 USDA 2019
estimate analysts’ analysts’ Outlook final
estimates estimates Forum figures
Corn 96.990 94.328 92.500-96.400 94.000 89.700
Soybeans 83.510 84.865 82.700-87.100 85.000 76.100
All wheat 44.655 44.982 44.350-46.000 45.000 45.158
Winter wheat 30.775 30.900 30.210-31.700 na 31.159
Other spring 12.590 12.631 12.200-13.200 na 12.660
Durum 1.290 1.512 1.100-2.350 na 1.339



With the USDA planting intentions report keeping expected wheat acres near figures previously projected by the USDA–the leanest planting season in over a century–wheat traders are now trading more on issues regarding world supply instead of reports; dryness in the Black Sea is offering a bid for world wheat futures and will become more important after the Easter Holiday, says AgResource.


U.S. farmers plan to plant their biggest corn acreage in eight years this spring, saying the grain is the best option in a tough farm economy despite weak demand from the biofuel industry as the coronavirus spreads; the U.S. Agriculture Department in its annual prospective plantings report, which is based on a survey of about 80,000 farmers taken during the first two weeks of March, on Tuesday forecast corn plantings of 96.990 million acres, topping already robust market expectations; hat means the U.S. market could be flooded with corn at a time American ethanol plants, which normally account for some 40% of U.S. corn usage, are closing; there is little demand for the biofuel that is blended into gasoline as Americans stay home; although the survey was taken before the rippling effects of the coronavirus pushed corn futures to 3-1/2-year lows due to demand destruction in the ethanol sector, growers said they do not intend to change their plans.


The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT

—U.S. soybean crushers likely processed 5.308 million short tons of soybeans in February, or 176.9 million bushels ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.

—Estimates ranged from 175.0 million bushels to 179.0 million bushels

—If realized, it would be the largest February crush on record and up nearly 9% from the same month last year, when processors crushed 162.8 million

—But it would be down from the record 188.8 million bushels processed in January 2020


—U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of February were projected to slip to 2.270 billion lbs from 2.352 billion lbs at the end of January.

—If realized, it would be the first supply contraction in five months after rising in January to the highest since July 2018

—Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.075 billion to 2.400 billion lbs


CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News


Location                   WHEAT        CORN    SOYBEANS        OATS        RICE

Chicago                    2,426         204       5,827           4           0

Toledo                     8,703           0           0           0           0

Northwest Ohio             7,769           0           0           0           0

Mississippi River          1,730           0           0           0           0

Ohio River                   193           0           0           0           0

St. Louis                  1,343           0       1,071           0           0

Minneapolis                    0           0           0       8,499           0

Duluth-Superior                0           0           0       2,353           0

Arkansas                       0           0           0           0      14,835

Lockport-Seneca                0       1,150         154           0           0

Ottawa-Chillicothe             0       2,228       1,921           0           0

Creve Coeur – Pekin            0           0         464           0           0

Havana-Grafton                 0           0       1,790           0           0

TOTALS                    22,164       3,582      11,227      10,856      14,835

Week Ago Totals           22,779       3,566      11,351      10,711      15,460

Year Ago Totals           47,813       4,964      15,567      13,447      21,562



KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News



03/27/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         22,411            22,354            24,643

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded               900               900               900

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               23,311            23,254            25,543


03/27/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         10,796            10,872             9,260

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                37                38               671

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               10,833            10,910             9,931


03/27/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         22,405            23,147            29,421

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                 0                 0                 0

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               22,405            23,147            29,421


03/27/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         23,608            23,809            34,037

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded             1,691             1,691             1,659

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               25,299            25,500            35,696



MGEX deliverable HRS wheat stocks – Reuters News



03/29/20        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                    3,998           4,036           1,150

Non-deliverable                    0               0               0

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                          3,998           4,036           1,150


03/29/20        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                   19,823          19,457          13,835

Non-deliverable                  463             463             756

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                         20,286          19,920          14,591


The pandemic could lead to long-lasting changes in the grain market, says an analyst at Rabobank; countries that rely on imported grains to feed their populations may build up larger strategic food reserves and become less reliant on a steady stream of imports; countries right now are showing that they want to import sufficient stockpiles in case there’s a lockdown


China has agreed to allow imports of Canadian canola to resume lifting a ban in place since March 2019 that had halted $2 billion worth of trade; the agreement was reached during a call held by China’s customs administration and Canada’s farm ministry on Tuesday


More than 13 tons of coarse grains produced in northwest China’s Gansu Province have been exported to Canada for the first time; the grains including millet, red beans, mung beans and sorghum rice were produced in the city of Qingyang, a traditional production base of high-quality coarse grains in China


Pork prices in China continued to edge down last week as supply increased and demand softened, official data showed; from March 23 to 27, the average pork price index in 16 provincial-level regions tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs came in at 45.86 yuan (about 6.5 U.S. dollars) per kg, down 3.5 percent week on week; China released another 20,000 tons of pork from its central reserves to increase market supply at the end of March


Brazil’s forecast soybean output was revised lower to 123.5 million tons for the 2019/2020 season as a drought caused crop failure in Rio Grande do Sul state, agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said after touring key producing regions; that’s down from previous forecast of 124.3 million tons made in January before the crop tour; the new, lower forecast still represents a 3.9% rise in output compared to 118.8 million tons harvested in the previous season; average yields in Brazil rose to 56 60-kilogram bags per hectare in this season, up from 55.2 bags in the previous season.


—Brazil’s second-corn harvest estimate was raised to 74.7 million tons in 2019/2020, up from 74 million tons forecast in January as planted area was expanded to an estimated 13.1 million hectares, Agroconsult said; second-corn, sowed after soybeans are harvested, accounts for about 75% of Brazil’s production of the cereal.


—Brazilian soybean exports in March are on track to hit a record 13.1 million tons, Lucas de Brito, an executive at the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec) said; that would break the previous monthly record of around 12 million tons


Argentina’s soybean harvest is progressing normally after some recent problems with transportation caused by reactions to the spread of the coronavirus, according to president of the Argentina Soybean Chain Association, which represents growers, processors and suppliers.


Russia will sell 1 million tons of grain from its state stockpile on the domestic market to ensure supplies and keep prices down amid the coronavirus pandemic, the Agriculture Ministry said; the ministry, which has 1.8 million tons of grain in the stockpile, mostly in Siberia, said last week it was preparing to tap into it; it has also proposed limiting Russian grain exports in April-June because of the virus outbreak


—Russia’s President Vladimir Putin plans discuss the spring grain sowing with the government on Wednesday; Russia’s agriculture ministry last week proposed limiting Russian grain exports to 7 million tons in April-June because of the coronavirus; the government is yet to approve the idea


—The Eurasian commission, which unites the customs zones of Russia and Kazakhstan, has decided to restrict exports of sunflower seeds, buckwheat, rice and rye until June 30 due to the coronavirus outbreak, the RIA news agency quoted it as saying


State-run Ukrainian grain firm DPZKU has around 100,000 tons of wheat in stock and is ready to ensure domestic needs for flour are met amid a surge in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the company said; Ukrainian bakers and millers last week asked the government to limit exports of grain and related products to maintain bread prices in the event of the coronavirus spreading.



World Weather, Inc.











WEDNESDAY                                                                  7 DAY PRECIP FORECAST


























This commentary is provided by ADM Investor Services, a futures brokerage firm and wholly owned subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. ADMIS has provided expert market analysis and price risk management strategies to commercial, institutional and individual traders for more than 50 years. Please visit us at www.admis.com or contact us at sales@admis.com to learn more.



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