AMDIS AM Comments 060721


Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/2 in SRW, up 8 in HRW, up 15 in HRS; Corn is up 11 1/4; Soybeans up 28 1/2; Soymeal up $0.47; Soyoil up 1.66.


Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 32 1/2 in SRW, up 31 1/4 in HRW, up 100 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 37; Soybeans up 91 1/4; Soymeal up $0.54; Soyoil up 7.17.


For the month to date wheat prices are up 32 3/4 in SRW, up 31 1/4 in HRW, up 100 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 37 1/4; Soybeans up 91 1/4; Soymeal up $5.40; Soyoil up 7.17.


Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 50 yuan ; Soymeal up 49; Soyoil up 62; Palm oil up 14; Corn down 2 — Malasyian Palm is down 29. Malaysian markets are closed for holiday.


Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers southeast through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. East: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday, east Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.


The player sheet for 6/4 had funds: net buyers of 7,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 27,500 corn, buyers of 22,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 11,000 soyoil.



Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 4 were: SRW Wheat up 3,449 contracts, HRW Wheat up 604, Corn down 1,040, Soybeans up 10,671, Soymeal up 2,093, Soyoil up 3,440.


There were changes in registrations (-100 Soyoil). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 868 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.



  • WHEAT SALE: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased around 195,000 tonnes of milling wheat in a tender for 60,000 tonnes which closed on Wednesday.
  • SOYOIL, SUNOIL SALE: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has bought about 60,000 tonnes of soyoil and 30,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in a tender which closed on Wednesday.



  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
  • WHEAT BRAN TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 20,000 tonnes of wheat bran.
  • Egypt’s GASC is seeking at least 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil for arrival from Aug. 1-20
  • Algeria Seeks 50,000 Tons of Soft Wheat



  • Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were flat to lower on Friday on muted demand for near-term supplies and sharply higher futures prices, traders said.
  • New-crop CIF soybean basis values held about steady, underpinned by expected strong export demand from China and concerns that hot, dry Midwest weather could reduce the harvest. New-crop export premiums have risen this week on those concerns.
  • CIF corn basis bids were mostly steady to lower as futures rallied and spot barge freight costs eased. Spot basis values remain at a sizable premium to deferred deliveries, reflecting strong exporter demand to fill previously booked export deals.
  • CIF corn barges loaded in June were bid 1 cent lower at around 76 cents over CBOT July CN1 futures. FOB offers for June corn export shipments held around 105 cents over futures.
  • CIF soybean barges loaded in June were bid about 10 cents lower at 60 cents over CBOT July SN1 futures. Old-crop soybean export premiums were flat, with June loadings offered around 85 cents over futures, while new-crop premiums were steady to up 5 cents.




China May Soybean Imports 9.607m Tons: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

  • Soybean imports YTD rose 12.8% y/y to 38.234m tons
    • Edible vegetable oil imports in May 980,000 tons
    • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD rose 44.9% y/y to 4.778m tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports in May 789,000 tons
    • Meat (including offal) imports YTD rose 12.6% y/y to 4.336m tons


China’s May soybean imports rise 29% on-month on delayed Brazil arrivals

China’s soybean imports rose in May from the previous month, customs data showed on Monday, as more cargoes from top supplier Brazil cleared customs.

China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.61 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, up 29% from 7.45 million tonnes in April, when some Brazilian shipments were delayed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

May’s imports were also up from 9.38 million tonnes in the same month a year ago.

“The figures were within market expectation. Imports from May-July are usually quite large each year. There were also some delayed cargoes,” said Wang Xiaoyang, analyst with Sinolink Futures.

Chinese crushers had stepped up purchases of beans from top supplier Brazil in anticipation of strong demand from a fast recovering pig sector, but rains in the South American country slowed the harvest and exports of the oilseed.

Delayed cargoes began to arrive in China in large quantity from April but the impact of the rains is still lingering.

Traders said some cargoes would be rolled over due to the delays and arrive in China in June.

Soybean arrivals in the next two months were expected to exceed 10 million tonnes, adding to already healthy supplies of beans, analysts said.

However, appetite for feed from the hog sector may be subdued in the short-term as a large volume of heavy pigs are sent to the market, China Construction Bank Futures said in a note last week.

Falling pig prices and rising feed costs were also expected to deter some farmers from restocking their herd, although soymeal demand is expected to be healthy in the long-term as China’s herd recovers from a devastating outbreak of African swine fever. (Full Story)

China brought in 38.23 million tonnes of soybeans in the first five months of 2021, up 12.8% from the same period last year, according to customs data.


CFTC Money Managers’ Commodity Positions for June 1 (Table)


U.S. Sold 198K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 971K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending May 27.

  • Corn sales fell to 971k tons vs 6,247k in previous week
  • Soybean sales fell to 198k tons vs 304k in previous week
  • All wheat sales fell to 365k tons vs 403k in previous week


Argentine customs officials plan 7-hour strike over vaccine access

Customs officials who process grains exports from Argentina said on Friday they will hold a seven-hour strike on Tuesday to press their demand for priority access to COVID-19 vaccinations.

Tugboat captains and other maritime port workers held a similar protest last month until the government agreed to designate them as essential workers, thus making them eligible for vaccines against the coronavirus as the South American grains powerhouse gets hit by a second wave of infections.

“Depending on the result, union actions may intensify after Tuesday,” the labor organization said. More than 80,000 people in Argentina have died of COVID-19 so far. (Full Story)

Such a short work stoppage was not expected to have a major impact on shipments from Argentina, the world’s No. 3 corn exporter and top supplier of soymeal livestock feed. But shipments could get bogged down if longer strikes are called.


IKAR Raises Russia Wheat Crop Outlook to 80M Tons on Rains

That’s up from a prior outlook for 79.5m tons, according to IKAR Director General Dmitry Rylko.

  • Crop conditions are improving in south and central regions due to rains
  • That’s helping to offset problems in the eastern wheat belt, where spring-wheat crops have faced dryness


Algeria Grains Harvest May Fall 35-40% Y/y on Drought

Algeria’s 2021 grains harvest could fall 35-40% versus last year’s 5m-ton crop because of drought, Reuters reports, citing an estimate from farmers’ union chief Mohamed Alioui.

  • “Drought has hit all provinces in the east and west, mainly those known for high production,” Alioui says
  • Movement restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic also curbed output
  • NOTE: Algeria is a large wheat importer and sources much of its supply from France
    • USDA estimates its 2021-22 purchases at 7.6m tons, up 17% y/y


Brazil, Argentina Corn and Soy Survey Before USDA WASDE Report


U.S. Corn, Soy, Wheat Ending Stocks Survey Before WASDE


U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Survey Before USDA WASDE (Table)


World Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Survey Before USDA WASDE Report


U.S. 2021 Wheat Production Survey Before USDA WASDE


Brazil 2020/21 Soybean Sales 75.6% Complete as of June 4: Safras

Considering an estimated output of 137.9m mt, sales were 103.7m mt so far, consultancy firm Safras & Mercado says in email.

  • Compares with 88.7% of estimated output one year earlier; 5-year average at 71.5%
  • Higher prices explain sales above historical average, Safras says
  • Advance sales for 2021/22 season are at 19.2%; compares with 35.6% a year earlier and a 5-year average of 14%


SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Premium and dollar press down prices in Brazil; liquidity is low

Soybean prices faded in the Brazilian market in the last days, reflecting the end of the harvesting in Argentina, the decrease in the export premium for soybean in Brazil and the sharp dollar depreciation against the Real – on Wednesday, 2, the American currency closed at the lowest level since mid-December 2020.

SALES – The devaluations of soybean in the Brazilian market were limited by the price rises abroad and the absence of sellers in the domestic market, since more than 50% of the 2020/21 season has been sold in Brazil. Now, soybean farmers have already made cash flow and are interested in stocking soybean rather than selling it in the spot market.

In Paraná, 70% of the 2020/21 crop has been sold, according to Deral/Seab. In Mato Grosso, according to Imea, 83.46% of the 2020/21 crop has been traded, still below the 88.98% sold in the same period last year. For the 2021/22 crop, Imea estimates that 27.72% of the output in Mato Grosso has been marketed.

According to data from Secex, in May, Brazil exported 16.40 million tons of soybean, 5.64% down from the volume shipped in April, but a record for the month. This year (Jan. – May), Brazil has exported 49.46 million tons of soybean, 7.42% up from that in the same period last year and also a record for the period.


Plant-based protein to cannibalize meat demand, Cargill CEO says


The plant-based protein industry will eat into consumer demand for meat as the rapidly growing sector expands, Cargill Inc Chief Executive Officer David MacLennan said on Friday.

“Our analysis is that in … three to four years plant-based will be perhaps 10% of the market. We’re a large beef producer and that is a big part of our portfolio. So there’s some cannibalization that will occur,” MacLennan said at a National Grain and Feed Association convention.

Privately held Cargill is a supplier of pea protein to meat alternative company Beyond Meat Inc BYND.O through its joint venture with PURIS Foods.


China feed industry unlikely to become self-sufficient, Cargill CEO says


China’s feed grain industry is unlikely to become self-sufficient despite the country’s efforts to ramp up domestic production, David MacLennan, chief executive of Cargill Inc CARG.UL said on Friday.

  • Tightening domestic supplies of feed grains and soaring demand from China’s pork producers has triggered record feed grain import purchases this year.
  • The surge in import demand has come despite directives by Beijing to boost domestic grain output and reformulate pig and poultry feed rations to reduce reliance on imported corn and soy.
  • “I think they realize comparative advantage … Grow and produce what fits your climate, your natural resources, your soil, your water supply. They don’t have it the way we, Brazil, Australia do”
  • “They need to depend on trade”


CORN/CEPEA: Prices resume following opposite trends among the regions surveyed


Cepea, June 4 – Corn prices have resumed following opposite trends among the regions surveyed by Cepea, influenced by local supply and demand.

In most of the regions in southern and southeastern Brazil, prices increased in the last days because farmers resumed constraining supply, due to concerns about crops productivity. Between May 28 and June 2, the highest rises, by 7 and 5.3%, were registered in Araxá (MG) and the Mogiana (SP), where the 60-kilo bag of corn was sold by 86.57 BRL and 92.64 BRL, respectively, on Wednesday, 2.

On the other hand, in some regions in São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and in all Mato Grosso, values dropped, pressed down by the one-off increase in supply. Thus, between May 28 and June 2, corn prices decreased by a steep 9.3% in Rondonópolis (MT), to 78.56 BRL/bag on Wednesday, and 4.6% in Primavera do Leste (MT), to 76.00 BRL/bag.

At ports, liquidity has been low, due to the high domestic prices. In May, Brazil exported 13.9 thousand tons of corn, 10.6% of the volume shipped in April and 44% down from that exported in May 2020. On the other hand, imports totaled 62.3 thousand tons, much higher than the 8.9 thousand tons imported in May 2020.


Malaysia June 1-5 Palm Oil Exports -28.36% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 28.36% m/m during June 1-5, according to Intertek Testing Services.



India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 44% Above Normal as of June 6

India has so far received 28.5 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 19.8 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on June 6.

  • Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 97% above normal
  • The eastern and northeastern region got 2% below normal rains



WORLD SOYBEAN PROSPECTS: Dry conditions in Argentina favor harvest. Northern areas of the Midwest have been hot and mostly dry lately, stressing the developing crop. Scattered showers are expected this week, but mostly over eastern areas. Western areas will continue to stress in the heat. A front moving through late this week and weekend should give more widespread shower chances. Favorable conditions in the Delta for developing soybeans. Scattered showers favoring developing soybeans in China. Scattered showers are falling in India ahead of the monsoon, which is currently in southern portions of the country. This will increase soil moisture to allow for planting to begin shortly.


WORLD CORN PROSPECTS: Dryness continues in central Brazil for the next week, stressing reproductive corn. Moderate showers are expected in southern Brazil this week, improving conditions for the crop in Parana and MGDS. Dry conditions favor harvest in Argentina. Northern areas of the Midwest have been hot and mostly dry lately, stressing the developing crop. Scattered showers are expected this week, but mostly over eastern areas. Western areas will continue to stress in the heat. A front moving through late this week and weekend should give more widespread shower chances. Scattered showers favoring developing corn in China. Overall favorable weather in Ukraine and Russia for developing corn.


WORLD WHEAT PROSPECTS: Favorable conditions for filling wheat in the Central and Southern Plains. Heat and drought in the Northern Plains stressing developing spring wheat. Showers this week will be isolated until a system moves through Thursday night into Friday. Still, temperatures will remain above normal and areas that do not see adequate rains will continue to suffer. Conditions for spring wheat in the Canadian Prairies have improved recently. Temperatures near normal and periods of scattered showers will continue this week. Favorable conditions for winter wheat in southern Europe and spring wheat in northern Europe. An upper-level low in the Black Sea region will continue to produce showers through the week in Ukraine and southwest Russia, being favorable for developing wheat. Favorable conditions for planting winter wheat and early growth in Australia. Soil moisture is favorable for winter wheat planting and early growth in Argentina and southern Brazil.


















This commentary is provided by ADM Investor Services, a futures brokerage firm and wholly owned subsidiary of ADM Company. ADMIS has provided expert market analysis and price risk management strategies to commercial, institutional and individual traders for more than 50 years. Please visit us at or contact us at to learn more.



Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.



This message may contain confidential or privileged information, or information that is otherwise exempt from disclosure. If you are not the intended recipient, you should promptly delete it and should not disclose, copy or distribute it to others.